Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Phantoms are known to re In vigour themselves ....I see your Exeter team had a great win against Gloucester yesterday.....hopes of the title?

I doubt it but the top four looks good.

[LeeTofficial]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I doubt it but the top four looks good.

So us in South Yorkshire may now see snow rather than rain or nothing 

[Sara_south_yorks]

6 minutes ago, LeeTofficial said:

So us in South Yorkshire may now see snow rather than rain or nothing 

Bloody hope so!! 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

winters over, enough said, lol

Have you been into the future?

cos we are still in early jan

there is three months of winter left in my book,and if you think it is over,i would like to know what you bais it upon

cheers

[knocker]

The GEFS temps for the five days over the weekend. Took me a wee while to locate the green crayon in the woodshed.

 

[Weather-history]

14 hours ago, mcyates said:

What did you use to record all of that, loved it when you could see the stars!!

 

,

[Weather-history]

Once again the models are sending us on a Benny Hill chase, queue the music

 

 

[JoeShmoe]

57 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Once again the models are sending us on a Benny Hill chase, queue the music

 

 

Lol - like the pretty girl at school flashing her knickers and yet again all the lemmings in the mod thread are running for the cliff again at charts with no cross model agreement out at t+144

when will they ever learn 

[coldcomfort]

I just want it to stop raining so things can begin to dry up a bit, my garden is like a paddy field, but unfortunately whilst the former looks pretty much nailed the latter doesn't. Yes rising pressure should dry things up in the air across the weekend, but the overnight frosts will simply lock a lot of the moisture up in the ground, meaning any drying below our feet will be very limited. I'm hoping the high pressure will drift north next week, allowing a fresh, drying SE'erly to set up, but if that is the case it still looks cold enough for some sharp overnight frosts, so again the same potential problem exists. On a positive note, any return to blowtorch SW'erlies and the rain train from hell looks rather more unlikely than it did just 24hrs ago, so hopefully this new trend will continue.

[knocker]

This may be of interest to some

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjih_7uq6HKAhUCuBoKHa6uB-wQFggxMAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.netweather.tv%2Ftopic%2F2235-guide-toforecasting-snow%2F&usg=AFQjCNElEkp6urYqpAGPjZyhXR1u9iuyHw

[stainesbloke]

28 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

I just want it to stop raining so things can begin to dry up a bit, my garden is like a paddy field, but unfortunately whilst the former looks pretty much nailed the latter doesn't. Yes rising pressure should dry things up in the air across the weekend, but the overnight frosts will simply lock a lot of the moisture up in the ground, meaning any drying below our feet will be very limited. I'm hoping the high pressure will drift north next week, allowing a fresh, drying SE'erly to set up, but if that is the case it still looks cold enough for some sharp overnight frosts, so again the same potential problem exists. On a positive note, any return to blowtorch SW'erlies and the rain train from hell looks rather more unlikely than it did just 24hrs ago, so hopefully this new trend will continue.

Well it won't be raining constantly like it has been these last couple of months so that'll help start to dry things out a bit. It would be good to get a dry feed from the east like you say and it doesn't look like a return to SW'lies anytime soon. I'll happily take the cold high showing up now, as long as it's sunny! High pressure in itself feels like a novelty.

[knocker]

The anomalies for Tuesday of next week have a different take on the orientation of the Ridge and the trough. The GEFS has the HP ridging up to Greenland rather than N/S with associated adjustment to the trough. It reverts to similar to the ecm within a couple of days. Thus the surface high should be over the UK or very adjacent. This scenario plays out to well into the ext period for both the GEFs and the ecm and only tends towards more zonality towards the very end. Pointless to speculate on temps but suffice it to say quite cold with some severe frosts initially but becoming a fair bit warmer during the latter period. Being an anticyclonic regime snowfall will be at a minimum.

Edited January 11, 2016 by knocker

[coldcomfort]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Well it won't be raining constantly like it has been these last couple of months so that'll help start to dry things out a bit. It would be good to get a dry feed from the east like you say and it doesn't look like a return to SW'lies anytime soon. I'll happily take the cold high showing up now, as long as it's sunny! High pressure in itself feels like a novelty.

I agree re high and dry SB, just hope it happens, but once again the 06 GFS just won't lie down regarding a return to milder and ultimately wetter Atlantic air this w/end...expect it to be another overly progressive outlier though.

[cobbett]

After a week or so of hype and high expectation regarding the upcoming cold spell, it's going to turn out to be a rather dull and uneventful period for most of the country- Dry and frosty nights are probably welcome for most but doesnt do it for me zzz

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

After a week or so of hype and high expectation regarding the upcoming cold spell, it's going to turn out to be a rather dull and uneventful period for most of the country- Dry and frosty nights are probably welcome for most but doesnt do it for me zzz

Seconded

[Gazza H]

Almost time for some more of this.....

[SLEETY]

Forecast summary

• Regional
• UK 5 days
• UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Jan 2016 to Monday 25 Jan 2016:

The weekend will continue cold with widespread overnight frosts. Winds should be predominantly from the north or northwest, which could feed wintry showers across northern and western coasts. It should remain mostly dry inland, although there is the risk of occasional rain, sleet or snow showers. The start of next week should continue much the same, although more unsettled conditions are likely to spread in from the west from the mid week onwards, with temperatures returning to near normal. There is the potential for a period of snow before the onset of the milder conditions. The rest of the period should be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions. The wettest conditions occurring in the north and west.

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:

The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, interspersed with some dry and brighter interludes. The rain and showers are likely to be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the southeast seeing the best of the dry and brighter conditions. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.

 

oh well  no mention of any further cold weather,and high presuure in the south again  azorez high ??

Edited January 11, 2016 by SLEETY

[cobbett]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Forecast summary

• Regional
• UK 5 days
• UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Jan 2016 to Monday 25 Jan 2016:

The weekend will continue cold with widespread overnight frosts. Winds should be predominantly from the north or northwest, which could feed wintry showers across northern and western coasts. It should remain mostly dry inland, although there is the risk of occasional rain, sleet or snow showers. The start of next week should continue much the same, although more unsettled conditions are likely to spread in from the west from the mid week onwards, with temperatures returning to near normal. There is the potential for a period of snow before the onset of the milder conditions. The rest of the period should be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions. The wettest conditions occurring in the north and west.

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:

The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, interspersed with some dry and brighter interludes. The rain and showers are likely to be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the southeast seeing the best of the dry and brighter conditions. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.

So back to the default westerly weather pattern from mid next week. Although this has be taken with a large pinch of salt, the noteworthy trend is the cold spell is lasting longer than originally forecast by the METO

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Forecast summary

• Regional
• UK 5 days
• UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Jan 2016 to Monday 25 Jan 2016:

The weekend will continue cold with widespread overnight frosts. Winds should be predominantly from the north or northwest, which could feed wintry showers across northern and western coasts. It should remain mostly dry inland, although there is the risk of occasional rain, sleet or snow showers. The start of next week should continue much the same, although more unsettled conditions are likely to spread in from the west from the mid week onwards, with temperatures returning to near normal. There is the potential for a period of snow before the onset of the milder conditions. The rest of the period should be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions. The wettest conditions occurring in the north and west.

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:

The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, interspersed with some dry and brighter interludes. The rain and showers are likely to be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the southeast seeing the best of the dry and brighter conditions. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.

 

oh well  no mention of any further cold weather,and high presuure in the south again  azorez high ??

I'd say that's slightly over-progressive, given the anomalies and broader patterns, but, of course, we can't see their in-house models.  Anyway, I suspect, given the current uncertainty, they've reverted to default winter synpotics - high to the south, low to th north; hence a broad westerly flow and temperatures above average.  In those circumstances, I'd not take the forecast beyond the 25th too literally.

[mushymanrob]

On 10/01/2016 at 0:51 PM, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Apparently, the BBC online forecast is siding with the GFS  in a return to mild zonality after next weekend.  I'm sure the north of England will be pleased!

well as i keep banging on... the noaa charts say NO to a quick return to the atlantic systems. they refuse to agree with the gfs.

now john says they are about 70% accurate for this period, as opposed to 40% odd at best for the gfs.

so my money is firmly against the gfs - id be surprised if the current gfs is right. but models change - especially at that range , nothing is certain.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

well as i keep banging on... the noaa charts say NO to a quick return to the atlantic systems. they refuse to agree with the gfs.

now john says they are about 70% accurate for this period, as opposed to 40% odd at best for the gfs.

so my money is firmly against the gfs - id be surprised if the current gfs is right. but models change - especially at that range , nothing is certain.

Well done Rob - you've managed to quote something I susequently edited as I accidentally posted it before I'd finished writing it!

[knocker]

To be fair mushy neither the GEFS and ecm anomalies are going for an early breakdown although they are indicating a possible return to zonality by the end of next week. Mind given the current uncertainties that's a wee while away.

Edited January 11, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 1h1 hour ago

Latest UKMO public GloSea5 update stays consistent: a (v broad!) idea of higher pressure to W/N; lower to E, Feb-Apr

[Bristawl Si]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 1h1 hour ago

Latest UKMO public GloSea5 update stays consistent: a (v broad!) idea of higher pressure to W/N; lower to E, Feb-Apr

A late 'Winter' possibly. Prob in line with NW's own G(P) & T thoughts?

[knocker]

51 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

A late 'Winter' possibly. Prob in line with NW's own G(P) & T thoughts?

it certainly looks along those lines although best keep in mind this is about specifics.

Edited January 11, 2016 by knocker