Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM spring!!!!!!!!! but after horrendous washout wednesday, sure to be 11th named storm kelly?

Looks a bit like December 2015, just 5mb higher pressure lol. For most that would be a cloudfest.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Looks a bit like December 2015, just 5mb higher pressure lol. For most that would be a cloudfest.

not sure, March sun stronger/higher than Dec, cloudy more likely though agree, but key thing dry for most of the south, but FI anyway

[mushymanrob]

20 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

Maybe not specifically 20C Mushy, but more so people expecting temperatures well above the seasonal average as par for the course. I just don't get it. And I agree with you in that I find it odd when people half expect/look for January weather in November, sometimes even in October! 

As I said in my post (the part you omitted!) I'm not against some warmth, I'd just rather see it late March and April onwards. I did greatly enjoy that exceptional spell in March 2012, crystal clear skies and huge diurnal ranges, it was almost perfection. However, I recognise that it was truly exceptional for the time of year, and I wouldn't normally expect to see such a spell until at least late April or May in a typical year.

Anyway, we can't seem to shake high pressure off in the Mid March period of recent years, it's quite remarkable. I just hope if the high pressure does take hold, it doesn't drag too much cloud in. A cloudy, 10C by day and night March high with no wind is downright weather purgatory, vile stuff. Just stagnant mildness with nothing going for it. If it's clear with some diurnal ranges, I'll be happy.

Finally, I enjoy reading your posts on the mod thread. I find you very reasonable and realistic throughout the year.

cheers for that

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is always impatience for the next season, regardless of the time of year.  I remember an ongoing frustration around 2005-2010 when it seemed to be normal to want cold and snow until the last day of February and then unacceptable from the 1st March onwards, with no middle ground, but since 2010 it has become more of a gradual transition that is typical of the other seasons as well.  I often end up feeling that the likes of Mushymanrob and Knocker help to provide much-needed balance on this forum in the winter months.

[Weather-history]

March 2013 unfortunately has joined the league of annoying examples being used along with January 1987, winter 1946-47 etc for me in the hunt for cold, snow etc.

 

[Weather Observer]

Has anyone noticed how long some of the posts now are on the model thread. Is there a competition? Some of them are up there with the U.N convention on climate change (lengthwise). I also find that when such a post lands on the thread, at least 20 people have already given it the thumbs up by the time I have managed to give it a first scan. My teachers were always telling me to "keep up". Seems they were right.

Edited March 5, 2016 by Weathervane
Punchuation

[March Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

March 2013 unfortunately has joined the league of annoying examples being used along with January 1987, winter 1946-47 etc for me in the hunt for cold, snow etc.

 

Not sure what you mean, WH?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, March Blizzard said:

Not sure what you mean, WH?

nor me

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Hi folks, am I going totally mad or were/are our professional weather gurus who everyone seems to worship on the mod thread predicting a cold March?and from the middle of the month increasingly colder?? Now looking very much above average from 10 days -!?! All the technology/MONEY chucked into these predictions is worrying... Anyway here's to a bit of spot of warm spring weather.  

[mushymanrob]

57 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

Not sure what you mean, WH?

 

56 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

nor me

i read it as examples of unusual events that only occur once in a blue moon, used to suggest/ramp up the expectations for unusual snow events.

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Ps a dusting of snow on the Isle of Wight this morning.. Sorry mods if I'm posting in wrong thread. 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

  I often end up feeling that the likes of Mushymanrob and Knocker help to provide much-needed balance on this forum in the winter months.

nice of you to say that, but im afraid we are seen by the rabid snowlovers as wind up merchants. and we are outnumbered, so we must be guilty! 

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it's to do with people judging the extremes as being a "standard" for cold and snow when in fact they were very exceptional events.  Another example would be January 1984 for "westerly" snowfalls- I cannot find a comparably extreme example of such a month going back to the 1870s. Widespread lasting snow cover has always been the exception rather than the norm in the UK.

However, in many parts of Scotland and north-east England, and to a lesser extent the Norwich area, even mild winters tended to have one or two modest snowfalls that stuck around for a couple of days, as there would usually be occasional short-lived northerlies.  A stark example was the 1998/99 winter, which had fairly widespread east-coast snowfalls from northerlies in all three of the main winter months, but little snow in most other parts of the country.    But from 2005 onwards, our northerlies have often been less cold than they used to be, which means that those northern and eastern regions can no longer rely on getting at least one or two snowy incursions per year from "36-48 hour northerly toppler" situations. 

Edited March 5, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I think it's to do with people judging the extremes as being a "standard" for cold and snow when in fact they were very exceptional events.  Another example would be January 1984 for "westerly" snowfalls- I cannot find a comparably extreme example of such a month going back to the 1870s. Widespread lasting snow cover has always been the exception rather than the norm in the UK.

However, in many parts of Scotland and north-east England, even mild winters tended to have one or two modest snowfalls that stuck around for a couple of days, as there would usually be occasional short-lived northerlies.  A stark example was the 1998/99 winter, which had east-coast snowfalls from northerlies in all three of the main winter months, particularly affecting north-east Scotland and the east of East Anglia, but little snow in most other parts of the country.    But from 2005 onwards, our northerlies have often been less cold than they used to be, which means that those northern and eastern regions can no longer rely on getting at least one or two snowy incursions per year from "36-48 hour northerly toppler" situations. 

Which is funny as there have also been more frequent snow events from such setups since around then here, though that might also be something to do with the fact that it's been harder to get a straight northerly these days where we do better here from a slight westerly veer.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

recently as well noticed that milder air moves down from the north, an example yesterday in WH timelapse, must have been rare before 2000

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

recently as well noticed that milder air moves down from the north, an example yesterday in WH timelapse, must have been rare before 2000

That's been a noticeable problem this year, mainly because of anomalous warmth of the Arctic and immediately neighbouring SSTs. Not usually a problem though unless too much air from the west gets dragged in.

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I think it's to do with people judging the extremes as being a "standard" for cold and snow when in fact they were very exceptional events.  Another example would be January 1984 for "westerly" snowfalls- I cannot find a comparably extreme example of such a month going back to the 1870s. Widespread lasting snow cover has always been the exception rather than the norm in the UK.

However, in many parts of Scotland and north-east England, and to a lesser extent the Norwich area, even mild winters tended to have one or two modest snowfalls that stuck around for a couple of days, as there would usually be occasional short-lived northerlies.  A stark example was the 1998/99 winter, which had fairly widespread east-coast snowfalls from northerlies in all three of the main winter months, but little snow in most other parts of the country.    But from 2005 onwards, our northerlies have often been less cold than they used to be, which means that those northern and eastern regions can no longer rely on getting at least one or two snowy incursions per year from "36-48 hour northerly toppler" situations. 

Same here but I'm not in the east or Scotland - never known a snowless Winter in my location in terms of lying snow at some point between 1st Dec and 28/29th Feb, even in Winter 13-14 we managed a pathetic dusting one evening in the February which stayed until 10am the next morning. Given my relatively low lying location we can do well here for lying snow. Yesterday an example even in March. Maybe my location a bit of a way from any moderating seas does me a favour but not far enough away to not give me some snow streamers from either the Irish sea or North sea.

Edited March 5, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Thundery wintry showers]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Which is funny as there have also been more frequent snow events from such setups since around then here, though that might also be something to do with the fact that it's been harder to get a straight northerly these days where we do better here from a slight westerly veer.

You have a good point.  I recall that during the period 1988-2003, we didn't get many cold blasts with a NNW wind- they tended to come from the north or NNE- and in addition, northerlies were less frequent than normal in most of those winters.

There's certainly been a lot more NNW'ly blasts since then, sometimes of the cyclonic type that takes the main thrust of cold air into western Britain.   In addition, the Greenland/Iceland sector has not warmed as much as the Norwegian and Russian Arctic.  I can recall numerous cases when a north-westerly brought fairly widespread snow showers to western areas, only for it then to turn less cold from the N or NNE.   Before 2005, it was rare for a north-westerly to be colder than a straight northerly.

Then of course we had February & December 2009 and January & December 2010.  I recall that we had a lot of very favourable synoptics for snow in south-western Britain in those months- and in addition, our side of the Arctic bucked the recent trend and had some cold spells of its own in those months, so some of our northerlies ended up as very potent beasts.

Edited March 5, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[J10]

30 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

You have a good point.  I recall that during the period 1988-2003, we didn't get many cold blasts with a NNW wind- they tended to come from the north or NNE- and in addition, northerlies were less frequent than normal in most of those winters.

There's certainly been a lot more NNW'ly blasts since then, sometimes of the cyclonic type that takes the main thrust of cold air into western Britain.   In addition, the Greenland/Iceland sector has not warmed as much as the Norwegian and Russian Arctic.  I can recall numerous cases when a north-westerly brought fairly widespread snow showers to western areas, only for it then to turn less cold from the N or NNE.   Before 2005, it was rare for a north-westerly to be colder than a straight northerly.

Then of course we had February & December 2009 and January & December 2010.  I recall that we had a lot of very favourable synoptics for snow in south-western Britain in those months- and in addition, our side of the Arctic bucked the recent trend and had some cold spells of its own in those months, so some of our northerlies ended up as very potent beasts.

Of course there was heavy snow on Christmas Night 2001 from a NNW flow.

From the time between 2004-2007 there were numerous NNW flow giving heavy snow, but no (lying) snow form NNW winds since December 2010, although that was a stonker. In retrospect 20120, was a stonker full stop for snow with 28 days of lying snow here (to met office rules)

[markyo]

Looks like this could be the last really fresh enjoyable weekend for a bit now,looks like the return to mild atlantic driven crap is well and truely on the cards,very depressing. The  thought of summer is not something i ever look forward to,3/4 months of continual hay fever is very unpleasant. Counting the days till septemberish time,much more pleasant.

 

[shotski]

Unfortunately I think the models are pointing to the worst possible outcome with regards uk wildlife with this FALSE spring coming up the end of next week. I'm sure the frogs in my garden pond will be out in force next weekend spawning in the mild and fine weather but I feel they could be in for a nasty shock as we enter the second half of March. 

Edited March 6, 2016 by shotski

[markyo]

17 minutes ago, shotski said:

Unfortunately I think the models are pointing to the worst possible outcome with regards uk wildlife with this FALSE spring coming up the end of next week. I'm sure the frogs in my garden pond will be out in force next weekend spawning in the mild and fine weather but I feel they could be in for a nasty shock as we enter the second half of March. 

Fingers crossed it is not so,our wildlife depends on this time of year,much better to have a warm spring followed by a cool summer.

[law of averages]

Is it me?? But the mild interlude this wk, keeps gettin pushed back to the end of the wk… a few days back it was tuesday!! Now thursday at the earliest??… is this the beginning of the SSW!! setting in… or as it begun!!… I hope is it the SSW… not interested in any warm till the end of april/beginning of may

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Law of averages!! said:

Is it me?? But the mild interlude this wk, keeps gettin pushed back to the end of the wk… a few days back it was tuesday!! Now thursday at the earliest??… is this the beginning of the SSW!! setting in… or as it begun!!… I hope is it the SSW… not interested in any warm till the end of april/beginning of may

The BBC forecasts have always said it will towards the end of next week before the mildest air makes it in by mid week temps will edge up slightly (1 or 2c) if we do see any affects from an SSW it won't be till the second half of the month but even that isn't guaranteed yet

[knocker]

Quite chilly down at the lake this morning but all the signs of spring were there. Sidney and the extended family were out in force until he had a contretemp with a Mallard