Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

dont worry about the ecm.... it will not become reality!

but the experts say ECM is better than GFS, I normally find it works the other way, so hope ECM backtracks on 00Z

[snefnug]

Certainly a whiteout Hognaston area for a couple of hours, around noonish, with some snow beginning to settle.  By 3:00 it was going, going, gone.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM better FI on 00Z, going with GFS, great run for those who want spring, and an end to wind/rain autumn

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

ECM better FI on 00Z, going with GFS, great run for those who want spring, and an end to wind/rain autumn

You mean there are some who don't?

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but the experts say ECM is better than GFS, I normally find it works the other way, so hope ECM backtracks on 00Z

yep, but not better then the anomaly charts from noaa. 
 

see, the ecm 00z has dropped the scandi high the 12z had, and is far more in line with the noaa 500 mb charts - azores high building to our near southwest.

[shotski]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yep, but not better then the anomaly charts from noaa. 
 

see, the ecm 00z has dropped the scandi high the 12z had, and is far more in line with the noaa 500 mb charts - azores high building to our near southwest.

I'm probably reading the 8-14 noaa chart wrong but it looks like it supports the idea of height rises to the nort east ? Sorry can't post it. 

[mushymanrob]

5 minutes ago, shotski said:

I'm probably reading the 8-14 noaa chart wrong but it looks like it supports the idea of height rises to the nort east ? Sorry can't post it. 

ive just posted on the md thread that there are tentative signs of a small pressure rise to our northeast, (i might be wrong here) as the green lines open out a bit. however the dominant feature , on these charts, is the azores high to our near southwest.

[Timmytour]

Well I've seen it snow and seen it lying for the second time this winter, but neither time did it (or will it) survive past 11am of that day.

Contrast that to March 2013 which, although it had temps in the mid- teens at the beginning of the month, gave a snowfall in the middle of the month which i could still see lying in places well into April!

It may be that there have been worse winters than this one in terms of snow....pretty sure there will have been some I've not seen any lying snow whatsoever.  But in terms of relative expectations, judged by some of the outputs the models were giving us, this has to be the absolute worst!  Other nondescript winters have been pretty much accompanied by nondescript model output, but at times this winter the models have given us Narnia only for the weather to deliver na-na-na-na-na

[John Badrick]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

You mean there are some who don't?

Of course there are, we still want our raging blizzards!!! Two weeks of winter still to go yet. Plenty of time for bitter cold

[March]

I really don't get how anyone interested in meteorology can use the astronomical dates. Seasonal lag is no excuse either as even that doesn't match up properly. 

[John Badrick]

1 hour ago, March said:

I really don't get how anyone interested in meteorology can use the astronomical dates. Seasonal lag is no excuse either as even that doesn't match up properly. 

Try the very recent, very cold and snowy March, WINTER 2013!! Interesting meteorology right there!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still there on 06Z!

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, John Badrick said:

Try the very recent, very cold and snowy March, WINTER 2013!! Interesting meteorology right there!!

a once a blue moon event proves nothing... its now spring, the only thing that isnt springlike are the temperatures. everything else is here, from spring flowers to lengthening days and hight/strength of the sun.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

a once a blue moon event proves nothing... its now spring, the only thing that isnt springlike are the temperatures. everything else is here, from spring flowers to lengthening days and hight/strength of the sun.

feels like Spring today only when sun out and wind dies off, not often though, hope 12Z's signs of Spring still there 17C possible

Winters don't seem to exist here anymore, who wants rain/wind all the time, yes a bit of snow but nothing like 90's

[reef]

13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

a once a blue moon event proves nothing... its now spring, the only thing that isnt springlike are the temperatures. everything else is here, from spring flowers to lengthening days and hight/strength of the sun.

Its the 5th March, for this date the average maximum here is 8.4C and the average minimum 2.4C.

Today the temps have been a max of 7.8C and min of 2.9C, so not far off at all.

I can't ever understand why when we reach the 1st March everyone expects it to be 15C. That's actually the average max in early May and is just as far from the mean as a cold spell with snow and a max of 2C.

Edited March 5, 2016 by reef

[shotski]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

a once a blue moon event proves nothing... its now spring, the only thing that isnt springlike are the temperatures. everything else is here, from spring flowers to lengthening days and hight/strength of the sun.

And as we speak it's snowing outside, love it 

[mushymanrob]

39 minutes ago, reef said:

Its the 5th March, for this date the average maximum here is 8.4C and the average minimum 2.4C.

Today the temps have been a max of 7.8C and min of 2.9C, so not far off at all.

I can't ever understand why when we reach the 1st March everyone expects it to be 15C. That's actually the average max in early May and is just as far from the mean as a cold spell with snow and a max of 2C.

to be fair, it seems that when we reach november everyones looking for a freeze...
 

15c in march is absolutely beautiful, so i understand the desire for that, does everyone expect it? i dunno, die hard coldies are still out in force on the md thread ramping up the vague chances of something cold enough for snow.

but you know theres little chance of that when the 'big guns' are all but absent, with only nick s hanging on.

[phil nw.]

March/April can hold plenty of variety in the model outputs as the vortex gradually fragments and we see ridges and troughs developing and moving around the hemisphere.

As we have seen many times in the past early Spring can be cold with single figure max's changing almost overnight to warm and sunny in the high teens a few days later and back again.

Last night here was freezing with a 2hr snowfall leaving a covering of around 2cms,now all gone of course.Next week-end we could well be basking in warm sunshine if current outputs verify.Thereafter hints in later gefs of a Scandi.trough and colder north westerlies again.

Plenty of interest if a weather enthusiast with such variety on offer at this time of year.

[March Blizzard]

2 hours ago, reef said:

Its the 5th March, for this date the average maximum here is 8.4C and the average minimum 2.4C.

Today the temps have been a max of 7.8C and min of 2.9C, so not far off at all.

I can't ever understand why when we reach the 1st March everyone expects it to be 15C. That's actually the average max in early May and is just as far from the mean as a cold spell with snow and a max of 2C.

Can I buy you a pint?! Couldn't agree more. I honestly don't get why people set themselves up for a fall by expecting July in March every year. 

I do get wanting a warm up, yeah, but all this whinging about not having 20C temperatures barely a week out of February is odd.

I love high pressure in Spring and the potential for large diurnal ranges, but I'd rather see it after the Spring equinox, personally. It's Sod's law when we get weak warmth in March with a setup that would be much better served in May or even April for decently warm weather, and with the later sunsets to go with it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think, during January and February, there were many instances of the models showing synoptics that looked, on the surface, amazing for cold and snow.  But the projected temperatures still looked very marginal, especially for the south and coastal parts of the north, mainly due to the record warmth in the Arctic and the high SSTs around the British Isles following the record-breaking warm December.

Had those exciting-looking model runs come off, I think many of us would still have ended up disappointed, and there would have been lots of doom and gloom posts about how even the most promising-looking snow setups only seem to give a couple of hours of slush.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, March Blizzard said:

 

I do get wanting a warm up, yeah, but all this whinging about not having 20C temperatures barely a week out of February is odd.

.

whos done that?... ive not read 1 post moaning at not getting 20c this month. in fact ive not read 1 post moaning at anything near not getting 20c. i have seen posts moaning about the awful winter though, plenty of them, and ive read posts looking forward to warmer weather - but thats not the same as whinging its not 20c.

perhaps im reading frustration in your post, going off your username and given its looking strongly like its going to get mild or even very mild lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still hints of an early Spring on GFS! but will ECM agree? before though Wednesday looks a shocker heavy rain

[March Blizzard]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

whos done that?... ive not read 1 post moaning at not getting 20c this month. in fact ive not read 1 post moaning at anything near not getting 20c. i have seen posts moaning about the awful winter though, plenty of them, and ive read posts looking forward to warmer weather - but thats not the same as whinging its not 20c.

perhaps im reading frustration in your post, going off your username and given its looking strongly like its going to get mild or even very mild lol

Maybe not specifically 20C Mushy, but more so people expecting temperatures well above the seasonal average as par for the course. I just don't get it. And I agree with you in that I find it odd when people half expect/look for January weather in November, sometimes even in October! 

As I said in my post (the part you omitted!) I'm not against some warmth, I'd just rather see it late March and April onwards. I did greatly enjoy that exceptional spell in March 2012, crystal clear skies and huge diurnal ranges, it was almost perfection. However, I recognise that it was truly exceptional for the time of year, and I wouldn't normally expect to see such a spell until at least late April or May in a typical year.

Anyway, we can't seem to shake high pressure off in the Mid March period of recent years, it's quite remarkable. I just hope if the high pressure does take hold, it doesn't drag too much cloud in. A cloudy, 10C by day and night March high with no wind is downright weather purgatory, vile stuff. Just stagnant mildness with nothing going for it. If it's clear with some diurnal ranges, I'll be happy.

Finally, I enjoy reading your posts on the mod thread. I find you very reasonable and realistic throughout the year.

[Milhouse]

Ill just be pleased to get into double figures, never mind 20c. Its felt raw today when the sun went in.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM spring!!!!!!!!! but after horrendous washout wednesday, sure to be 11th named storm kelly?