Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

 

 

[knocker]

The jury is still out regarding the midweek snow 'event' given the differences of opinion between the GFS and the ecm and METO. I suspect it's being over hyped (surely not). Foreby that there is pretty good agreement between the GEFs, ecm and EC32 that the transition from the cold 'snap' to more benign NW/SW flow is still on the cards for the end of next week as we lose our upper trough and HP from the SW becomes more influential.

Ergo the latest from the woodshed

Edited February 12, 2016 by knocker

[cobbett]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

The jury is still out regarding the midweek snow 'event' given the differences of opinion between the GFS and the ecm and METO. I suspect it's being over hyped (surely not). Foreby that there is pretty good agreement between the GEFs, ecm and EC32 that the transition from the cold 'snap' to more benign NW/SW flow is still on the cards for the end of next week as we lose our upper trough and HP from the SW becomes more influential.

Ergo the latest from the woodshed

I blame the BBC for starting it with  that daft tweet the other day

[lassie23]

I sense another over hyped average spell approaching. With excitement building as model runs yet again lead everyone up the garden path with signs of phantom easterlies and snow. What we end up with will probably be  temperatures falling to a bone chilling +5c, a snow flake may be spotted in the wind and there might be frost.

[Nouska]

14 hours ago, knocker said:

 

 

"The upcoming rise in the RMM index is not being driven by the "MJO" but actually an atmospheric Kelvin wave"

I have a sense of déjà vu .....

Cannot remember if he was right last time but it sure led to some active Twittering.

[joggs]

Yes chilly spell coming up and some snow showers fire ne,e Scotland and eastern counties of England before some Frosty nights and rain moving into West Tues,wed and turning to snow across central ares and decaying before milder air moves in from the west nxt wkend then maybe colder from nw again after.That's way I see it re mo further outlook and ecm.GFS different with cold lingering and bringing a few cm to central and eastern,se ares with cold lingering down here.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I sense another over hyped average spell approaching. With excitement building as model runs yet again lead everyone up the garden path with signs of phantom easterlies and snow. What we end up with will probably be  temperatures falling to a bone chilling +5c, a snow flake may be spotted in the wind and there might be frost.

i dont think its the models that are leading people up the garden path, but the emphisis on some models by some that are showing a desired chart.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Nouska said:

"The upcoming rise in the RMM index is not being driven by the "MJO" but actually an atmospheric Kelvin wave"

I have a sense of déjà vu .....

Cannot remember if he was right last time but it sure led to some active Twittering.

I can't remember either; surely Dr.V isn't a wind up merchant.

[lassie23]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont think its the models that are leading people up the garden path, but the emphisis on some models by some that are showing a desired chart.

Cherry pickers should be banned from the Model Of Desire  thread......I mean MOD thread

[Mokidugway]

Never bother with it lass ,trying to keep my sanity.

 

[knocker]

As can be seen also on this morning's GEFS

 

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

More toys out of the pram this afternoon after the GFS loses its colder theme!  Oh well at least it's looking cold for the weekend and not as horrible as the wet and windy weather just gone!

[joggs]

Everything that could go wrong for cold and snow,is or has this winter lol.Oh well here's to next year with la nina and e qbo and a reclining sun over the next few years lol.

Edited February 12, 2016 by joggs

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

More toys out of the pram this afternoon after the GFS loses its colder theme!  Oh well at least it's looking cold for the weekend and not as horrible as the wet and windy weather just gone!

That rather depends on where you are.

Having said that Sidney's quite happy

Edited February 12, 2016 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

On 11/02/2016 at 3:27 PM, *Sub*Zero* said:

Well that's just cursed any chances! Highly doubt we'll be seeing any scenes like that photo in the tweet, more like a wash out lol 

Well having viewed GFS and UKMO 12z you could well be right

[snowblizzard]

Yep, as I've said before, the general set-up was all wrong for a decent cold winter in UK from the very outset.

And, has been for the past couple of years really.

So, I don't think it's just down to the strong El Nino influence.

I think it's time to end the angst, constant disappointments and heartache.

Today, I'm officially giving-up the chase for winter 2015/16  

 

Edited February 12, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Alexis]

Me too. That's it for February and winter proper as far as I'm concerned now. 

You can never ever rule out a cold spell in March of course though. I wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest period of the season during next month, but then that wouldn't be hard.

[March]

I'm just glad it's not windy. 

[Carl46Wrexham]

I'm just glad it's not raining....for a change.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

I'm just glad it's not raining....for a change.

wednesday shocker, and timed for day and not night

[Mapantz]

I'm looking forward to the 18Z now, not because I'm following each op run, but because of the reaction on here- it'll probably be an absolute snow-fest before plummeting again on the 00Z.   

[mushymanrob]

ONE bad run from the gfs and everyones downhearted... it wouldnt surprise me if the next run or two brought back the colder option and everyone will be buzzing again....

until it drops that too! lol.

 

[Gustywind]

Trouble with March cold spells is they need really deep cold uppers (-9/10 min) to really deliver, as per 2013. The -5 to -7 that would do in Jan/Feb won't cut it unless it's at night. Even in that incredible spell snow struggled to stick during daylight. So yes snow is possible but it tends to melt quickly as soon as the sun appears.

I've been model watching for 11 years now and this year has even taken me by surprise in terms of its excessive number of very mild spells and inability to land a half decent cold spell south of the Pennines! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

ONE bad run from the gfs and everyones downhearted... it wouldnt surprise me if the next run or two brought back the colder option and everyone will be buzzing again....

until it drops that too! lol.

 

but we have had enough rain, Wednesday is looking very wet, and why timed for the day? surely not much to ask for rainbands to be timed for night, 

[mushymanrob]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but we have had enough rain, Wednesday is looking very wet, and why timed for the day? surely not much to ask for rainbands to be timed for night, 

i dont want rain (or snow) id prefer it dry and mild with sunshine! we cant control it, we get what we are given and when we are given it.