Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Norrona2015]

Met office issue yellow weather warnings for snow for four regions in Scotland.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Mid next week could be worth keeping an eye on...

 

 

 

 

[davehsug]

I'm a bit late, but following the near hysteria in the model thread I had another look at the ECM. Am I missing something?

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Mid next week could be worth keeping an eye on...

 

 

 

 

Well that's just cursed any chances! Highly doubt we'll be seeing any scenes like that photo in the tweet, more like a wash out lol 

[mushymanrob]

sorry guys.... i dont rate snow chances in the middle of next week at all. pressures too high for anything appreciable and the gfs upper just are not cold enough imho. id have thought the best chance for snow is on monday when we get that very cold blast east of north coming across the uk. however its only really for eastern counties areas exposed to the north sea.

[Polar Maritime]

I can see where your coming from looking at the models at face value, But it's a fine line atm Mushy to stamp anything out. The 12z looks more promising on the right..

Edited February 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The GFS has some snow middle of next week on the weak front but does run it through Whereas the METO has it petering out.

Quote

During Wednesday and Thursday, the rain and hill snow is expected to spread across Wales and England, but is likely to stall across central parts whilst dying out. Brighter weather with scattered wintry showers follows into northern and western areas.

Edited February 11, 2016 by knocker

[cobbett]

If Mr Ferguson appears talking about some possible 'bothersome' snow amounts then I'll be interested

Edited February 11, 2016 by cobbett

[knocker]

Certainly the GEFS is looking at a transition to a more benign and warmer NW flow during the latter part of next week.

[shotski]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Certainly the GEFS is looking at a transition to a more benign and warmer NW flow during the latter part of next week.

Warmer or less cold ? I don't remember many warm north westerly flows so far this winter. 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, shotski said:

Warmer or less cold ? I don't remember many warm north westerly flows so far this winter. 

The same thing. Warmer than it has been and the southern half of the UK in a NW from the northern circulation of the HP to the SW.

 

[cheshire snow]

A genuine Question.

For low land Britain,what amount of snow is classed as Disruptive?

10cm/15cm/20cm?

Is there a guide issued by the MO for this.

C.S

 

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

A genuine Question.

For low land Britain,what amount of snow is classed as Disruptive?

10cm/15cm/20cm?

Is there a guide issued by the MO for this.

C.S

 

We all know the answer to that, it causes laughter amongst the coldies of most other countries in the northern hemisphere.... 

[kent]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, a sleet to rain event with elevation most likely. 

 

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

We all know the answer to that, it causes laughter amongst the coldies of most other countries in the northern hemisphere.... 

In this country I think 1cm should do it.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i agree and disagree with you on this.

because its not black and white, some people 'like' a post because they think its a well constructed informative post (which is why it should be liked) but others 'like' a post because it contains things they want to hear.

classic case was the other year, gibby posted one of his daily , in depth, unbiased, great posts and only got 2 likes, when another post that was basically was a cold ramp (which didnt verify) got 35.  that goes on all the time.  its clear some post to have their ego massaged, one member even had a name change which was either taking the p out of his followers , or the act of an egomaniac.

frosty/karl who is popular all year round says he doesnt post for 'likes', and i dont think any serious poster like fergie, john, gibby, and many more could care less about the rating system.

so i ask.... whats the point?

edit.... no need to go back years - just view this mornings posts. gibby 1 'like' , a post saying 'its cold' (basically) gets 14.

now many might say 'so what, does it matter'?.. and thats a valid point, but surely it highlights the uselessness of the rating system.

If the MO have a standard on this then I am not aware of it, 1.5 inches of snow in Birmingham in Jan 2004 caused the same amount of disruption as 11 inches in 5 or 6 hours did in Feb 1991, the Met Office cant really legislate for things like a Gritter breaking down or the council not heeding their advice correctly, its the Met Offices job to forecast weather and advise on POTENTIALLY disruptive weather or not, assuming the forecast is accurate, its down to others, you could for eg have a red warning (danger to life - take action) but if people do take action then it might not end up TOO disruptive at all, but if a warning of a hard frost and 1 inch of snow is issued and someone decides to go skating on an inch of ice and goes through it and dies then then they cant really blame anyone else, that's my view anyway.

[cheshire snow]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

We all know the answer to that, it causes laughter amongst the coldies of most other countries in the northern hemisphere.... 

it was a genuine question,i was interested in a sensible answer,but hey ho should have known better.

C.S

[Weather-history]

A decent day

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

it was a genuine question,i was interested in a sensible answer,but hey ho should have known better.

C.S

Okay, I think in serious terms it is probably more than 2 inches I believe, I might be wrong on this.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

A decent day

 

 

true to say there was convection today due to sun strength? I had a less cloudy day and certainly looked like summer style convective clouds

[knocker]

The ecm has the front fizzling out over central England on Weds with some snow Wales, west Midlands, before incursion of the warmer air.

 

[mountain shadow]

Things are desperate when the JMA is the model of the moment

There will likely be some transient snow in places before the Atlantic pushes through by this time next week.

No Northerly blocking at all in a favourable position but we await MJO phase 8 at month end.

[snowblizzard]

We are constantly clutching at straws!!

It's looking better for colder conditions (not severe) but I think we are looking at yet another classic fail as far as snow goes!

If only our temperatures were about 5c colder on average.

 

Edited February 11, 2016 by snowblizzard

[The PIT]

2 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

A genuine Question.

For low land Britain,what amount of snow is classed as Disruptive?

10cm/15cm/20cm?

Is there a guide issued by the MO for this.

C.S

 

Normally a single flake does the trick. So any amount really these days.

[knocker]

No doubt the tribulations re. next week will reach a crescendo by the weekend meanwhile the anomalies are all indicating the change later in the week with the trough becoming aligned W-E the the NW and HP pushing up from the SW tending towards a more WNW flow and average temps. The unsettled weather also tending towards the N with drier conditions in the south. The ecm gives a similar interpretation.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

 

Edited February 11, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]