Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Carl46Wrexham]

48 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at this evening's ecm I can't see what all the excitements about.

 

10 days time brother...10 days time. spout the (worn out) mantra...feed the delusion....

Edited February 4, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[Nick L]

55 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Eh? No it doesn't! It's not even after 5pm tomorrow in London for example.

[wishfulwinter]

44 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Knocker why are you in here all the time where there is hardly anyone to read your posts? a popular poster like you should be in the model output discussion..what's going on, did someone upset you?

Yes knocker. It's a real pain you being this side...I have to keep changing threads every half hour to see what's really happening with the weather!!!! (Of course there are a great many others on mod thread but I do like to keep up to date on the wood shed!)

[Carl46Wrexham]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Eh? No it doesn't! It's not even after 5pm tomorrow in London for example.

5.02pm tomorrow YES!

[Nick L]

Just now, Carl46Wrexham said:

5.02pm tomorrow YES!

Woops, I was looking at today. But not 6pm...

[knocker]

31 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

10 days time brother...10 days time. spout the (worn out) mantra...feed the delusion....

Not quite brother the anomaly chart is days 6-10. And I only posted the day ten chart in response to some mutterings in the cold thread.

[knocker]

Just some tinkering with the ecm anomaly tonight with LP ex SE from Canada, slight ridging mid Atlantic and with the jet nipping around this the depressions are inclining a little SE when impacting the UK. In the ext period the Atlantic flattens thus backing the flow a tad westerly but still heralding periods of unsettled wet and windy weather.

So once again little sign of any significant change.

NOAA not a million miles from this

[Snowyowl9]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

NEB and Jan '84, bloody 'eck never

Overhyped,I suspect the west didn`t favour so well from that being nearer to the atlantic to somewhere like Derbyshire hills which would get much more snow,last January was a prime EG looking at the reports.

I certainly don`t remember much from it,and I`ve never seen roads blocked by snow from the west yet from drifting.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 years ago, we were in middle of a very good spell, good snow on 5th Thursday, but still remember the failure of the 9th/10th Feb event, chart above did not deliver any snow here

Edited February 4, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Overhyped,I suspect the west didn`t favour so well from that being nearer to the atlantic to somewhere like Derbyshire hills which would get much more snow,last January was a prime EG looking at the reports.

I certainly don`t remember much from it,and I`ve never seen roads blocked by snow from the west yet from drifting.

If we got the exact setup now useless for my location, but 32 years ago when winters/cold spells were colder, I reckon it would have delivered for Stafford

[Bristawl Si]

Yes -  a great week down here. 3 or 4 decent snowfalls in a week i think.

Winter up until then had been pants; wasnt much better after that week in Feb 09 either if my memory serves me right.

As for this Winter......snowless here. And, for me, on the forecasting front has shown the real experts (Meto and others) calling it just about right.

But.......

The internet 'favourites', so worshipped by many of the forum junkies, seem to have been trumped.

 

[Snowyowl9]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

If we got the exact setup now useless for my location, but 32 years ago when winters/cold spells were colder, I reckon it would have delivered for Stafford

I was just looking at the archives jan 1984 and I can see why it was colder to last January 3.8cet as there was more colder incursions from the west but also some NWlys and cold smaller HPs and a channel low,yes seas are warmer now too.

Last January 4.4cet not bad at all,little difference really.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[Carl46Wrexham]

Edited February 4, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[jethro]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Nyet. But I have heard of Cynthia Payne and Reg Varney. Do they count?

Now you're scaring me.

[knocker]

A quick glance at tonight's EC32 means output and there doesn't appear to be anything nasty lurking in the woodshed.

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

A quick glance at tonight's EC32 means output and there doesn't appear to be anything nasty lurking in the woodshed.

thats a relief

[knocker]

I don't think we need to look further than this weekend at the moment. Wind and rain will affect most areas, particularly on Saturday, and some concern once again regarding flooding, Usual caveat vis model rainfall totals.

[Liam J]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

A quick glance at tonight's EC32 means output and there doesn't appear to be anything nasty lurking in the woodshed.

An end in sight to the current nasty weather pattern would be nice! Storms, wind, rain & ongoing risk of flooding... So any good news on that front? 

[Carl46Wrexham]

43 minutes ago, knocker said:

I don't think we need to look further than this weekend at the moment. Wind and rain will affect most areas, particularly on Saturday, and some concern once again regarding flooding, Usual caveat vis model rainfall totals.

Looks very familiar...unfortunately.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

An end in sight to the current nasty weather pattern would be nice! Storms, wind, rain & ongoing risk of flooding... So any good news on that front? 

Not much I'm afraid with wind and rain remaining a problem. Rather than me wittering on the latest METO update.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Feb 2016 to Thursday 18 Feb 2016:

Changeable conditions are likely to prevail through the middle of February, with further spells of cloud and rain interspersed with colder, brighter, showery conditions, the showers wintry in the north. Rainfall totals are expected to be largest over western facing high ground. There will be a continuing risk of hail and thunder. It may be very windy with gales at times, possibly severe mainly in northern and western parts. Temperatures are expected to be mainly near normal. However, locally cold and frosty nights are still possible. It may become generally colder for a time later next week, especially in northern and central areas. There is only a very low probability of any more settled weather.

UK Outlook for Friday 19 Feb 2016 to Friday 4 Mar 2016:

The latest indications are that the latter half of February and the start of March will be dominated by changeable weather coming in from the Atlantic, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, mainly across northern in particular. Southern and eastern parts should have the best of any settled spells. Some snow is likely at times in the north and west and there are also likely to be some frosty nights, but despite this overall the temperature will probably be a bit milder than average for the time of year. Generally windy with gales or even severe gales in northern and western parts, with lighter winds at times in the south.

Updated at: 0256 on Fri 5 Feb 2016

[Liam J]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not much I'm afraid with wind and rain remaining a problem. 

Great, So there is some nasty weather still lurking in the woodshed! Story of the winter. 

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Great, So there is some nasty weather still lurking in the woodshed! Story of the winter. 

Yes I'm afraid my original post was misleading. Think before posting knocker.

A quick glance at the GEFS 5-10 and as already noted no escaping the very unsettled weather. Out old friend the PV still going great guns.

Edited February 5, 2016 by knocker

[markyo]

Fingers crossed this awful weather must surely come to a end soon to be replaced by a cool dry spring,nature could do with a break to give it time to regroup for summer. A warm spring would not be good.

 

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, markyo said:

Fingers crossed this awful weather must surely come to a end soon to be replaced by a cool dry spring,nature could do with a break to give it time to regroup for summer. A warm spring would not be good.

 

No sign at all of that unfortunately.  PV rock solid our side of the globe. 

I reckon we'll get a cold and wet Spring. Pretty much a continuation of the semi permanent Autumn we now get.

[Nick L]

I have to say, I'm starting to look forward to the first pleasantly warm and sunny spring day now. The fat lady is beginning to warm up her throat regarding this abomination of a winter. It's not been much better than 13/14, frankly.