Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Weston super mare
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Weston super mare

Thanks alexisj9---good job I don't base business on the forecasts then.....because its changed again since I last posted.....more mobile that the real weather outside....

Edited by ChrisWSM
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

so where is this 'cold and snowy' second half to winter the forecasters stated when they did their winter 2015/16 forecast?  seems they had about as much knowledge about what this winter would bring as the rest of us (ie. no idea whatsoever just clutching at straws). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

looking back at my diary, January and February 2010 and then December 2010 were by far the best year for snowfall.  Even 2009 was a good one in February although not as many frequent snow events as in the winter of 2010. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, snow freak said:

so where is this 'cold and snowy' second half to winter the forecasters stated when they did their winter 2015/16 forecast?  seems they had about as much knowledge about what this winter would bring as the rest of us (ie. no idea whatsoever just clutching at straws). 

An unfair comment I feel if you read their explanations of things that they felt would impact on the weather. Anyone trying to predict even in very general terms several months ahead is facing a hugely difficult task. Even professional forecasters admit to this and their outputs show only limited success.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
6 hours ago, frosty ground said:

So no then.

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

 

shows that in the last 140 years, a significant snowfall occurred after march 1st in 87 years, but only twice did that occur  when there had been no significant snowfall in the preceding winter months.
 

the stats back up the point i made, thank you.

Edited by mushymanrob
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Have already done my UK winter forecast for 2016/17 to er until further notice

Temperature will be generally average or slightly above though there will be occasional colder spells with some snow  generally confined to northern hills and scotland

Average to above average rainfall in the West/North West, drier in the South East

repeat ad-infinitum...zz

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

A really glum afternoon with regards to various updates from professional forecasters and organisations.

I'm such a big supporter of scientific research into long range forecasting and really enjoy seeing the progress made in this field of study over the last 20-30 years.

But my goodness... I want it to be so wrong right now!

Edited by Gord
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

 

shows that in the last 140 years, a significant snowfall occurred after march 1st in 87 years, but only twice did that occur  when there had been no significant snowfall in the preceding winter months.
 

the stats back up the point i made, thank you.

Not sure that proves anything at all.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
23 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

yep, look at weather history here in the uk, and youll find that 'heavy snow storms' in march and april are extremely rare following a mild dec-feb. late snow events usually follow an already cold winter.

 

Just reposting this for Mushy...... 

You said that a heavy snow fall is extremely rare following a mild winter......  your evidence shows where a  heavy fall of snow has fallen not mild winters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Latest updates from Fergie in the Strat thread don't make good reading at all (I do very much appreciate them and of course don't blame him at all as he can't control it!). Sounds like a return of the horrible Euro High pattern then, high anomalies in/to the south, so no cold, or any other weather interest as of course any active weather goes north.

This is genuinely the most boring year or so of weather I have experienced.  And on it goes..

Edited by Evening thunder
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
7 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

there was?.... i didnt see anything until march.  im central uk too..

however if im wrong on this, it just goes to prove that late cold after a relatively mild winter is even more uncommon!

They certainly were. That is why I was surprised you used that as an example.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

 

shows that in the last 140 years, a significant snowfall occurred after march 1st in 87 years, but only twice did that occur  when there had been no significant snowfall in the preceding winter months.
 

the stats back up the point i made, thank you.

I'm not being funny Mushy but I really can't see what stats have to do with this. To get snow in any winter month in this country we need an influx of cold from either the North or the East. Both of those directions retain cold well into March and beyond, all we need is a flow from either of those directions - any time between October- May can and has resulted in snow in this country.

Surely saying (whether the stats agree or not) that a late cold spell won't happen, or is very unlikely to happen, if there has been no preceding cold spell is implying that one causes the other. How can that be? I know that weather patterns can and do get locked in, I know seasons can have a dominant pattern whether that be mobile or blocked, but even the most dominant weather patterns can and do change. Often suddenly.

Preceding weather doesn't cause subsequent weather and pattern matching historical weather to predict the future, has rarely, if ever, provided an accurate forecast. I think the best that can be said is that because the Sun is higher in the sky in March and average temperatures are higher than in January, it requires something with a bit of oomph to get to this country and turn it cold enough for snow, making it less likely for us to experience late season snow. It doesn't however require the months leading up to that moment to also have been cold and snowy.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

 

shows that in the last 140 years, a significant snowfall occurred after march 1st in 87 years, but only twice did that occur  when there had been no significant snowfall in the preceding winter months.
 

the stats back up the point i made, thank you.

 

Really? Unless I'm missing something...

Searching the text in the last 'some outstanding features' column, I find 12 references of snow in March, and that rises to 19 in March or April in years classed as 'little'. Certainly more than 2 are in southern England too.

Using the months with notable falls, that is 18 for March, rising to 28 for either March or April.

This is all for years classed as 'little', and significant snows in March and April are I believe included in the overall ratings so would presumably give some bias for such years not to be classed as 'little'

Edited by Evening thunder
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

As others are suggesting, the most recent page of the Strat thread is interesting (even to those like me who don't really understand Stratospheric influences), but it certainly doesn't make pleasant reading for coldies, unfortunately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

As others are suggesting, the most recent page of the Strat thread is interesting (even to those like me who don't really understand Stratospheric influences), but it certainly doesn't make pleasant reading for coldies, unfortunately.

I'm not losing any sleep * I think some if not most would prefer a week of snow potential rather than a dry punishing cold spell of weather, after all history proves the most problematic snow events arise out of marginal situations and the GFS 12z is showing that, March is going to be a corker. :wink: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

This needing a cold winter to get a cold spring is puzzling me so thought I'd take a look at another site which is brilliant for historical weather. I chose the time span which most likely covers the period of our collective memories 1975-1999, intending to continue onto the winter since the turn of this century. However, I've been stopped in my tracks by the very first entry of that span. Quite literally from one extreme to the other.....

ANYTHING is possible with the weather, regardless of what's happened in the previous few months. That's just my opinion, but I've seen nothing to make me change my mind.

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1975_1999.htm

1975-1979

 1974/75 (Winter):

At the time, it was the MILDEST winter in England and Wales since 1869, and not surpringly, notably SNOWLESS. One of the 5 WARMEST winters (by CET/MetO) in the series which began in 1659. Up to winter 2012/13, rank=5 (equal with 2007) Value=6.43; Dec=8.1, Jan=6.8, Feb=4.4
(Others, mildest first: 1869 (6.77); 1834 (6.53); 1989 (6.50); 2007 (6.43))

 1975 (June):

SNOW and SLEET occurred as far south as the London area during the first few days of June 1975 (sleet as far south as Portsmouth). (also noted on 12th Jun 1791). The snow melted away almost immediately, except over the higher parts of central and northern England. This is thought to be the first time since July 1888, that snow has been reported so widely so far south in summer. More than 10 cm of FRESH SNOW over the highlands of Scotland. SNOW (circa 2.5cm/1 inch) stopped play (subsequently abandoned) at a CRICKET MATCH [ Derbyshire v. Lancashire ] at Buxton, Derbyshire on the 2nd. (source GPE, Manley)
New LOWEST MINIMA were set at Kew (0.6 degC/4th ... with a grass minimum of (minus) 6 degC at this station) and Tynemouth (2.7 degC/2nd) for June.
A 'spectacular' CHANGE OF TYPE: Early unusually cold/northerly outbreak with snow/frost etc., with midday TEMPERATURE on the 2nd only 2 degC (see above) ..... then on 7th, MAXIMA 22 to 27 degC. Thought to have occurred only 3 times in the previous 100 years. Over the following week, maxima of at least 27 degC were recorded somewhere in Britain each day. On the 9th, 28.9 degC was recorded at Achnashellach, in the northwest Highlands of Scotland.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

h850t850eu.png

hopefully signs of a dry out, as Fergie has mentioned in updates for mid Feb, hopefully a start on GFS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
38 minutes ago, jethro said:

I'm not being funny Mushy but I really can't see what stats have to do with this. To get snow in any winter month in this country we need an influx of cold from either the North or the East. Both of those directions retain cold well into March and beyond, all we need is a flow from either of those directions - any time between October- May can and has resulted in snow in this country.

Surely saying (whether the stats agree or not) that a late cold spell won't happen, or is very unlikely to happen, if there has been no preceding cold spell is implying that one causes the other. How can that be? I know that weather patterns can and do get locked in, I know seasons can have a dominant pattern whether that be mobile or blocked, but even the most dominant weather patterns can and do change. Often suddenly.

Preceding weather doesn't cause subsequent weather and pattern matching historical weather to predict the future, has rarely, if ever, provided an accurate forecast. I think the best that can be said is that because the Sun is higher in the sky in March and average temperatures are higher than in January, it requires something with a bit of oomph to get to this country and turn it cold enough for snow, making it less likely for us to experience late season snow. It doesn't however require the months leading up to that moment to also have been cold and snowy.

you answered your own question there

"Surely saying (whether the stats agree or not) that a late cold spell won't happen, or is very unlikely to happen, if there has been no preceding cold spell is implying that one causes the other. How can that be? the question, followed by the answer" I know that weather patterns can and do get locked in,"

im not saying we wont get a decent snowfall, im not implying the preceding months categorically have a determined impact on what will come, of course the only certainty in meteorology is uncertainty!  

but it IS about patterns, and the link you provided clearly demonstrates this... out of the 87 years in the last 140 years that had snowfall after march 1st,  only 2 had a significant late significant snowfall  without there being a similar spell in the preceding months. THATS what the stats are telling us off the link you provided. so i do not think its that outrageous or misplaced to suggest that its unlikely that we will get a significant snowfall after march 1st (of course theres still time for one this month! lol)

i really dont see what the problem is here, unless its snow lovers refusing to see what the stats are telling us about the probabilities , or cheap point scoring,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East
16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

h850t850eu.png

hopefully signs of a dry out, as Fergie has mentioned in updates for mid Feb, hopefully a start on GFS

At this point I'm not really too fussed about cold but I'm hopeful at least for drier weather as the month progresses. The Atlantic should bd quietening down overall by the end of February and into March. Any cold or significant cold is a bonus to me now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

 

Really? Unless I'm missing something...

Searching the text in the last 'some outstanding features' column, I find 12 references of snow in March, and that rises to 19 in March or April in years classed as 'little'. Certainly more than 2 are in southern England too.

Using the months with notable falls, that is 18 for March, rising to 28 for either March or April.

This is all for years classed as 'little', and significant snows in March and April are I believe included in the overall ratings so would presumably give some bias for such years not to be classed as 'little'

there are only 2 winters, 1884-5, 1991-2, where that chart says there were 'notable' snowfalls after march 1st when there was no notable snowfall in the preceding months.  ive always been on about 'notable' or 'decent' snowfalls that lasted longer then 48 hours.

even at 19 'months' , out of 140 years (280 months if your counting months 140 years x 2 months- march april) it still makes the notion that 'notable snowfall in march/april is UNLIKELY , a very fair statement.

Edited by mushymanrob
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
1 hour ago, cobbett said:

Have already done my UK winter forecast for 2016/17 to er until further notice

Temperature will be generally average or slightly above though there will be occasional colder spells with some snow  generally confined to northern hills and scotland

Average to above average rainfall in the West/North West, drier in the South East

repeat ad-infinitum...zz

Lets hope you're right as the last couple of winter's (this one included) have been nothing like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Just reposting this for Mushy...... 

You said that a heavy snow fall is extremely rare following a mild winter......  your evidence shows where a  heavy fall of snow has fallen not mild winters.

yep, now you are begining to get it! :D

 

Edited by mushymanrob
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

can we now please put this march snow malarkey behind us now...

i made a statement, ive supplied the stats that support what i actually said - and they clearly do.  there really is nothing to say, you either accept the stats or you dont.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...