Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

Patiently awaiting the first southerly waft of warm air to appear in FI.

that's sadly as unlikely as snow, looking out though, but as like cold, will downgrade to crappy low pressure and rain

[Milhouse]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that's sadly as unlikely as snow, looking out though, but as like cold, will downgrade to crappy low pressure and rain

Low pressure crashing into the UK for the forseeable. When will the weather gods give us a break i wonder.

[ukpaul]

13 minutes ago, lukemc said:

On another topic, do you think we could see something of note in the middle on the month - I am going to stay in a Travelodge in the Peak District around the time of Valentines Day - what do you think the chance of seeing something wintry then would be? As the Peak District is higher up than Liverpool? I would like it to snow when I go!

There aren't any travelodges in the Peak District, closest is Glossop, my old home town. It does do pretty well for snow but a better bet is Buxton at a higher elevation.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Milhouse said:

Low pressure crashing into the UK for the forseeable. When will the weather gods give us a break i wonder.

I know and a horrendous Sunday coming up, storm Ivan? completely made that up mind you

[lukemc]

6 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

There aren't any travelodges in the Peak District, closest is Glossop, my old home town. It does do pretty well for snow but a better bet is Buxton at a higher elevation.

Your right, Glossop is where were are booked a bit surprised with no travelogues in the national park area maybe de to national park planning restrictions I wonder? 

[Mokidugway]

Ivan the terrible no doubt

[ukpaul]

11 minutes ago, lukemc said:

Your right, Glossop is where were are booked a bit surprised with no travelogues in the national park area maybe de to national park planning restrictions I wonder? 

More likely as National Parks skirt any populated area, the way they manage to virtually encircle Glossop for example! Lewes in Sussex is the largest town inside one and that's less then 20,000.

[cheese]

No idea what people are moaning about - I think it's been a nice past few days. Windy, but plenty of sunshine and the sun is rapidly gaining strength.. and when the wind dies down you can certainly feel the difference compared to a month ago. A few early morning showers but nothing major.

I was even talking to someone today and they said if it wasn't so windy it would probably be warm. I'll happily take this weather for the rest of the month. Beats endless rain. Even the forecast doesn't look too bad - certainly no washouts!

Anyway, a nice picture of the sun taken in Leeds today..

Edited February 2, 2016 by cheese

[knocker]

 

The ecm 5-10 has a very familiar analysis. Strong ridging western North America into the Pole; vortex N. Canada and associated trough eastern North America: faint ridging western Atlantic with trough over the UK. Ergo a continuation of the NWN flow and periods of very unsettled weather over the UK.

In the ext period low pressure extends SE from the vortex to the NW of the UK thus tending to back the upper flow westerly but still quite unsettled over the UK but perhaps with not quite such wintry interludes.  NOAA tending to go along with this scenario and backing the winds in the latter period.

So no significant change in the next fourteen days based on this.

Edited February 2, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

I never expected to wake up to this this morning

And I didn't really but it was all a bit weird as I seem to have been in a time warp and woke up on this day in 2009.

There were heavy snowfalls in many parts of eastern England overnight 1st/2nd, with widespread travel disruption. London and parts of Essex, Kent, Surrey and Hampshire were particularly badly affected, but there was also disruption in parts of northern and eastern England. Runways were closed at Heathrow, all London buses were stopped and vehicles were abandoned in the Yorkshire Wolds.

February 3 - The focus of the fresh snowfalls moved to northern and western England and Wales

Parts of the UK, particularly England and Wales, struggled with a second day of disruption with further delays on roads and cancelled trains and flights, and more than 6,000 school closures.

Sidney wasn't amused

It was quite a few days. For more details

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/feb2009

Back in the real world the threat of more severe winds in the north early next week has retreated only to be replaced by a touch of GFS whimsy - hopefully

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

The METO is going for a brief quiet period of weather around the 13th., is there any sign of this. Well looking the GEFs anomalies this morning and roughly within that time frame there is a phasing out of the ever present trough over the UK with slight pressure rises to the west before low pressure extending from the vortex extends SE and unsettled weather returns.

Edited February 3, 2016 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

Only two or three posts this morning tells its own story.

The ever present day 10 ECM 'potential ' charts have not materialised and today's day 10 ECM returns the core trop.PV to its home near Southern Greenland,  what's the odds that day 10 chart does verify? 

[frosty ground]

13 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

yes.

there was a link to the data posted here a week or so ago, i should have saved it but didnt. the evidence is the stats, which shows that a late cold/snowy spell in march/april is a rare occurance after a mild dec-feb. it can occur as 2013 proved (but even then the ecm had a cold spell in fi as early as early feb) .

 

So no then.

[knocker]

28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Only two or three posts this morning tells its own story.

The ever present day 10 ECM 'potential ' charts have not materialised and today's day 10 ECM returns the core trop.PV to its home near Southern Greenland,  what's the odds that day 10 chart does verify? 

Yes t does. It just emphasises how skewed from reality the other thread is.

[WillinGlossop]

12 hours ago, lukemc said:

NEB,

That sounds a bit like the ludicrous Modern Wintr theory branded about by the likes of Ian Brown - how an earth can you say northern blocking is extinct - we have in the last decade the coldest December for over 100 years meaning the coldest in any of our lifetimes.  In 2009-10 we had the coldest winter since 1978/79 and we recently had an amazingly cold March with very deep snowfalls.  

On another topic, do you think we could see something of note in the middle on the month - I am going to stay in a Travelodge in the Peak District around the time of Valentines Day - what do you think the chance of seeing something wintry then would be? As the Peak District is higher up than Liverpool? I would like it to snow when I go!

Welcome to glossop mid month..... Yep buxton does much better than here and only 25 mins away..... Lots of nice pubs, restaurants and walks around....hopefully snow will greet you up here....  Last nights gfs looks promising mid month but no doubt next run will move it east/north/disappear.....

 

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So no then.

Don't know why mushy used 2013 as an example as January and February were below average. For me, Mother Nature will do what she does for this March and April. And if the circumstances are right, we will have a cold wintry spell and if they are not, we won't , it's that simple. There is no one with an audit book or a law book say that if all three months are mild, you shall not have a cold spell.

Cold winters don't guarantee wintry springs neither. 1962-63 wasn't followed by a wintry Spring. First half of March 1947 was just a continuation of the prolonged wintry spell begun late January, April and May 1947 were not cold months.

 

 

 

[johnholmes]

10 hours ago, knocker said:

 

The ecm 5-10 has a very familiar analysis. Strong ridging western North America into the Pole; vortex N. Canada and associated trough eastern North America: faint ridging western Atlantic with trough over the UK. Ergo a continuation of the NWN flow and periods of very unsettled weather over the UK.

In the ext period low pressure extends SE from the vortex to the NW of the UK thus tending to back the upper flow westerly but still quite unsettled over the UK but perhaps with not quite such wintry interludes.  NOAA tending to go along with this scenario and backing the winds in the latter period.

So no significant change in the next fourteen days based on this.

 

Why K are you posting charts in here rather than the MOD thread? seems a bit odd to me, see my comments re the anomaly charts in that thread.

[knocker]

17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why K are you posting charts in here rather than the MOD thread? seems a bit odd to me, see my comments re the anomaly charts in that thread.

A bit of a long story John which doesn't really need repeating but suffice it to say I was getting a lot of aggro from some of the cognescenti in there which frankly I can do without so it's much more relaxing posting elsewhere. I know it's a bit odd but there we go.

Whilst vaguely on the subject I would just like to say I totally agree with Gibby's post yesterday.

Oh and I agree with your assessment re. the anomaly charts. Although I prefer the GEFS and ecm means as you no doubt noticed.

Edited February 3, 2016 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

14 hours ago, Weather-history said:

1975, 1989, mid April 1998, mid April 1999, early April 2000? Are we talking about potent cold spells? 

Late April 1950, March 1937, 1930, 1925, 1916, 1883

They will occur if the circumstances at the time permit it, they are not dictated by what has happened. 

 

 

25 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Don't know why mushy used 2013 as an example as January and February were below average. For me, Mother Nature will do what she does for this March and April. And if the circumstances are right, we will have a cold wintry spell and if they are not, we won't , it's that simple. There is no one with an audit book or a law book say that if all three months are mild, you shall not have a cold spell.

Cold winters don't guarantee wintry springs neither. 1962-63 wasn't followed by a wintry Spring. First half of March 1947 was just a continuation of the prolonged wintry spell begun late January, April and May 1947 were not cold months.

 

 

 

i do wish people would read what i said from the outset and not bits from later on - that way there would be no misunderstanding...

most marches/aprils have a cold spell, they might even produce snow.

but that was never my point! i was always talking about a proper dumping of snow - like in march 1970, a proper cold spell, not a 48 hour wonder.

the chart (i think 'jethro') posted a link to a couple of weeks ago confirms what i posted, since 1875 i counted 4? 5? occassions where march had a dumping after an apparently mild winter. hence, saying a decent cold spell with widespread snow is highly UNLIKELY, after a mild winter.

as for 2013.... that might have a below average cet, so what? it wasnt a cold winter with previous cold/snowy spells. but 2013 DOES prove that late cold/snowy spells can occur even after a winter with no prior cold/snowy spells , they are just highly uncommon.

so i cannot now see the chances of a decent cold spell and widespread snow being very great now, as theres no indication of any change to the current pattern in the next 2 weeks at least. however, a short lived blip (like some of us had mid jan) is still likely - a 48 hour wonder? likely - a 72 + hour spell of settled snow ? in reality no.

[MP-R]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

as for 2013.... that might have a below average cet, so what? it wasnt a cold winter with previous cold/snowy spells. but 2013 DOES prove that late cold/snowy spells can occur even after a winter with no prior cold/snowy spells , they are just highly uncommon.
 

That's the point though, there WERE snowy spells during the winter. Some lucky ones got snow in December and February, and there was widespread snow for a week in January. Besides looking at the archives, I know this because I was living in Spain at the time, deeply jealous of all the snowy pictures on the likes of Facebook, Twitter etc...

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

That's the point though, there WERE snowy spells during the winter. Some lucky ones got snow in December and February, and there was widespread snow for a week in January. Besides looking at the archives, I know this because I was living in Spain at the time, deeply jealous of all the snowy pictures on the likes of Facebook, Twitter etc...

there was?.... i didnt see anything until march.  im central uk too..

however if im wrong on this, it just goes to prove that late cold after a relatively mild winter is even more uncommon!

[MP-R]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

there was?.... i didnt see anything until march.  im central uk too..

however if im wrong on this, it just goes to prove that late cold after a relatively mild winter is even more uncommon!

Yep, there was a good week of snow on the ground in my location, and I'm sure many other locations across the south, west and Midlands at least. I'm also pretty sure when the breakdown came around the 26th, there was another decent snow event for many.

I haven't looked too much into late cold spells that much, but you're quite possibly right, especially recently. 1998 and 1999 are the last years I can remember with spring snow after snowless winters here.

[mushymanrob]

20 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yep, there was a good week of snow on the ground in my location, and I'm sure many other locations across the south, west and Midlands at least. I'm also pretty sure when the breakdown came around the 26th, there was another decent snow event for many.

I haven't looked too much into late cold spells that much, but you're quite possibly right, especially recently. 1998 and 1999 are the last years I can remember with spring snow after snowless winters here.

.... but 98 99 were 24/48 hour wonders, not the decent spells im on about.  checking my diaries, i lost no work - although i think i remember snow on a sunday - but i wasnt snowed off - in fact the only time ive been snowed off (in 'mowing' season march - nov) was 2013.

[ChrisWSM]

What I find most confusing is that the forecast both on here and WHO show that on 11/12 snow with minus temps-in fact the feels like on this website is minus all the way virtually to day 10...the 12th says -6.7 feels like for my area...so are these forecasts based on solid evidence or speculation.....

Edited February 3, 2016 by ChrisWSM

[alexisj9]

31 minutes ago, ChrisWSM said:

What I find most confusing is that the forecast both on here and WHO show that on 11/12 snow with minus temps-in fact the feels like on this website is minus all the way virtually to day 10...the 12th says -6.7 feels like for my area...so are these forecasts based on solid evidence or speculation.....

 

31 minutes ago, ChrisWSM said:

What I find most confusing is that the forecast both on here and WHO show that on 11/12 snow with minus temps-in fact the feels like on this website is minus all the way virtually to day 10...the 12th says -6.7 feels like for my area...so are these forecasts based on solid evidence or speculation.....

GFS info fed into whatever software the site uses to give the forecasts.