Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

The ext ecm anomaly still has the same upstream pattern as previous runs and continues to remove the Euro HP and keep a trough over the UK. Thus the trend towards lower temps continues apace with the introduction of a cold zonal regime, air sourced N. Canada. Ergo weather remaining very unsettled with wintry outbreaks. No particular reason for any transient LPs ducking and diving into SE Europe at the moment so any prolonged cold may be forced to await some mid Atlantic amplification which may just be off the radar at the moment.

[reef]

Its 14.3C outside at the moment, making it the second warmest January maximum in 36 years. The record is 14.8C, but that was recorded only last year!

[knocker]

Not a huge difference between the GEFS 06z and the ecm 00z

Edited January 27, 2016 by knocker

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I am wondering with Easter being quite early this year, whether we'll get a cold and snowy one. It wouldn't surprise me if it was... 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Not a huge difference between the GEFS 06z and the ecm 00z

which one is ecm?

[knocker]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

which one is ecm?

The one five posts up.

Edited January 27, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

The one five posts up.

Now i see,

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wondering if I will be right in thinking ECM 12Z will be zonal in FI, don't expect the 00Z to come off, seemed to have had a wobble

[knocker]

The ecm still showing gusts in excess of 70kts as the depression passes to the north on Monday.

Before this little fella pops up from the west and brings some very wet conditions to the southern half of the UK. If it verifies of course.

 

 

Edited January 27, 2016 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well unbelievable, it's followed 00Z! but 00Z's in morning key, not gonna think cold on way until GFS is on board

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Well unbelievable, it's followed 00Z! but 00Z's in morning key, not gonna think cold on way until GFS is on board

Are you ever happy LOL

C.S

[Liam J]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm still showing gusts in excess of 70kts as the depression passes to the north on Monday.

Before this little fella pops up from the west and brings some very wet conditions to the southern half of the UK. If it verifies of course.

 

 

Not just wet though, if that chart verified then there would be some of the white stuff in the forecast as much colder air gets pulled into the mix... Could even use the 'B' word if it verified of course. 

Nice cold plunge on the following charts out to day 10

 

 

Edited January 27, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like ecm has had a bit too much to drink already this evening. Best to ask ukmo to order a taxi home for her.

[knocker]

Tonight's anomaly charts are pretty much in agreement on the overall upper air pattern for the next fourteen days. Basically this leads to a continuation of the westerly based unsettled regime which will continue to bring some periods of wet and windy weather to the UK, particularly the west and north, interspersed with drier periods. Temps around average but some of the wet and windy episodes could be quite wintry and some transient snow episodes cannot be ruled out especially over the higher ground further north and possibly even the lower regions.

The two things mainly of interest vis the anomalies are the development of the blocking HP over the Pole (although the significance of this, if any, is above my pay grade), and the losing of the rogue segment of the PV to the NE in the ext period which the GEFS doesn't quite manage but the ecm does,

The conclusion is that any significant developments are still off the radar.

[Peter H]

Well, BBC long range forecast seems to think the jet will be further south next week, with the possibility of some wintry outbreaks at times. Snow at all levels forecast here on Saturday as well, though milder again by Sunday.

Met Office and the BBC both running with the colder theme mid month, so it'll be interesting to see what develops.

[knocker]

This morning's GFS continues with the unsettled theme throughout. The main immediate concern has to be rain and gales so with that in mind next Monday is looking pretty grim for Scotland and the north of England with strong winds with gusts up to 70kts, plenty of snow on the high ground and rain maybe where it's certainly not required.

[knocker]

The ecm has this low just north of Scotland 963mb at 18z on Monday. (Can't post the chart). This would bring winds between 70-80kts over Scotland and very strong winds down to northern England. There could also be significant snowfalls over the high ground in Scotland.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Knocker, Perfect set-up for blizzards over the Highland in the coming week.

[Steve Edgefield]

Nothing inspiring for those of us in the south in the immediate outlook..  It's either cool, very mild and windy, very mild and wet followed by cool/cold and wet interspersed with drier interludes.  It has definitely felt like a north/south winter divide at times with Scotland taking the lions share of cold (that which has been on offer) and poor old Northern England having dire amounts of rain. Yes we had that cold snap in January which was nice but I've not seen one flake of snow in a few years now.  The next ten days look good for snow prospects north but same old story down here.  Very depressing winter again.   Nothing to suggest that north/south divide changing anytime soon.

[knocker]

I ask myself is there a glimmer here? Upstream pattern the same but trough edging east and a suspicion of height rises mid Atlantic and a suggestion of the winds veering to WNW.

Probably not.

[Azazel]

No snow seen for 3 years now here. Unprecedented in my lifetime:O

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, knocker said:

Tonight's anomaly charts are pretty much in agreement on the overall upper air pattern for the next fourteen days. Basically this leads to a continuation of the westerly based unsettled regime which will continue to bring some periods of wet and windy weather to the UK, particularly the west and north, interspersed with drier periods. Temps around average but some of the wet and windy episodes could be quite wintry and some transient snow episodes cannot be ruled out especially over the higher ground further north and possibly even the lower regions.

The two things mainly of interest vis the anomalies are the development of the blocking HP over the Pole (although the significance of this, if any, is above my pay grade), and the losing of the rogue segment of the PV to the NE in the ext period which the GEFS doesn't quite manage but the ecm does,

The conclusion is that any significant developments are still off the radar.

indeed, no real sign of anything changing there. i see they are getting excited on the md thread because of a transitory cold snap next week. but these charts are dead against it being anything other then a brief 48 hour (ish) snap - it is not the begining of a change leading to a proper cold spell, if these charts are correct.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, its just a break really between systems, just a bit of a bonus it's 2 days instead of the usual cold dry night then wet day setup, maybe frosty to wake up Wed and thurs, but then back to normal from Fri

I think Feb is the month thats changed the most in the môdern era, it always used to guarantee snow and cold in all of the UK, but been generally less cold/wintry since around '98

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

I think Feb is the month thats changed the most in the môdern era, it always used to guarantee snow and cold in all of the UK, but been generally less cold/wintry since around '98

Take a look at the Februaries of the Victorian era from 1846-1885, mild dominated them, 5 out of 6 in a row were above 6.0C for the CET. 

At one stage, the 30 year average for February was higher than that of December. 

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

I think Feb is the month thats changed the most in the môdern era, it always used to guarantee snow and cold in all of the UK, but been generally less cold/wintry since around '98

not in my neck of the woods mate... theres never been a guarantee of snow in february, the early 70's for eg, and theres the old saying

february filldyke, black or white

ie itll rain or snow, the emphisis being on "or".