Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[snow freak]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Yep, move like I did. Our problem over here is drought conditions, increasingly hot summers and mild winters. Some low lying parts of Austria still not had snow yet as well. If you are going to move , live at 1000m asl to see snow lying for more than a week or two.  I lived in Vancouver for a while and only saw rainy mild winters there, so not exclusive to swampy blighty. Snow we have at the moment soon to start melting as freezing level shots higher up the mountain this week.

 C

not so easy to move when you don't have much money.lol.  Also Vancouver would be ideal as although Vancouver city tends to not get much snow at least you know within an hour or so drive you can up in the mountains with more or less guaranteed snow, so that would do me nicely.

[PLANET THANET]

the bbc monthly outlook is out and although they are hinting at a cold second half of February the sting is that they warn that the high pressure may be in the wrong place to bring any snow with the cold as they estimate the high pressure will be sat over northwestern parts of europe  (surely that can bring snow, but what do I know)

Edited January 25, 2016 by PLANET THANET

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, snow freak said:

not so easy to move when you don't have much money.lol.  Also Vancouver would be ideal as although Vancouver city tends to not get much snow at least you know within an hour or so drive you can up in the mountains with more or less guaranteed snow, so that would do me nicely.

Yes you are right. Mr son who lives out there can on most days see snow on the coastal range, less than a hours drive away. Van City starting with early snowfall and cold for a change this winter but seems to have gone into milder zone since New Year.

C

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Can't see any cold spells for the foreseeable future.

At least the heating bills will be low this winter and an early start to open water swimming in April looks good for some triathlon training!

[carinthian]

BOGOFF winter sale starts today in the UK . Special items on offer : De-icer car window spray, sledges, snow shovels, winter woolly hats and gloves , surplus local authority sacks of salted grit, bags of Polish coal, firelighters, kindle and much more. Also, forgot, buy one get one free version of " Im Dreaming of a white Christmas " What a crap winter this is turning out for Blighty and other in NW Euroland.

C

[tynevalleysnow]

On 6 January 2016 at 9:16 PM, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

What's the betting high pressure moves over scandi/Greenland mid March and sends us northerlys until mid May before the jet crashes back in to spoil early summer then back to Scandinavia high for July-August!

[tynevalleysnow]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Well Chionomaniac has just said that he can't see any help from the strat now to save this Winter.

So,  indeed on the 25th January,  Winter is over. 

I'll bet Spring is freezing though.

March 2013 was one of the best cold spells here with deep snow of around 30 inches at deepist and freezing temps well into April 

[mushymanrob]

well im not writing off winter just yet, although a cold spell appears unlikely atm, theres still time for something to evolve and with low pressure over scandinavia a northerly blast isnt synoptically that far away...

however if theres still no sign by the end of the first week in feb (c 2 weeks time) then ill agree..

[Mokidugway]

Just to add another nail ,I  mowed my front lawn this morning..

 

[Gord]

Winter is not over! Good grief! You know what our climate is like, the minute we think everything is settled into a pattern, everything suddenly changes and surprises us. No two winters are alike. It's been a very, hard long slog so far this winter but I remember a lot of talk after the hot summers of the early 2000s that hot summers were here to stay. A lot of talk in the late 2000s that lowland snow was becoming impossible in southern England. Mother Nature doesn't fit into the little boxes that some people in here seem to have made for her.

Writing off the next week?...yep, I agree with that.

Writing off the next 2 weeks?...probably a safe bet.

Writing off the next 2 months? No way! Not yet!

February and March cold spells can be brilliant. OK, the sun might be a bit higher but it doesn't stop a lot of snow falling...and it can stick around. OK, sometimes it doesn't but it's hardly been doing that in January either has it?

[tynevalleysnow]

22 minutes ago, Gord said:

Winter is not over! Good grief! You know what our climate is like, the minute we think everything is settled into a pattern, everything suddenly changes and surprises us. No two winters are alike. It's been a very, hard long slog so far this winter but I remember a lot of talk after the hot summers of the early 2000s that hot summers were here to stay. A lot of talk in the late 2000s that lowland snow was becoming impossible in southern England. Mother Nature doesn't fit into the little boxes that some people in here seem to have made for her.

Writing off the next week?...yep, I agree with that.

Writing off the next 2 weeks?...probably a safe bet.

Writing off the next 2 months? No way! Not yet!

February and March cold spells can be brilliant. OK, the sun might be a bit higher but it doesn't stop a lot of snow falling...and it can stick around. OK, sometimes it doesn't but it's hardly been doing that in January either has it?

March 2013 changed my option of cold spells in spring. Snow stuck around for weeks and the big piles of snow in the local tesco car park didn't melt till May

Edited January 25, 2016 by tynevalleysnow

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'm starting to believe in the 3 mild Winters in a row theory and therefore next Winter will be a colder one. Examples include after Winter 1986/87 we had 3 mild Winters in a row then Winter 1990/91 was cold, also after Winter 1996/97 which was cold to start with we had another 3 mild Winters in a row followed by Winter 2000/01, which wasn't bad (there was quite a good, but short lived cold and snowy spell in late December 2000 as well as a fairly cold March 2001). So maybe with Winter 2012/13 being our most recent cold Winter and this being the third mild Winter (so far, though there is still some time left for this to change making this theory redundant) in a row since then, then maybe this gives some better hope that Winter 2016/17 will be a cold one. Just a thought.

[tynevalleysnow]

1 hour ago, Gord said:

 

Well next winter we will probably be looking at a La Niña, easterly QBO and a weaker sun which would surely mean a colder winter

[Peter H]

Yesterday, Aldergrove had it's warmest January day since records began. A balmy 14.1C

I think the mildness of this so called winter has been accentuated by the fact my grass is quite long now and really does need cut, but it's far too wet. Quite considerable growth from the end of October.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Peter H

[ReindeerMarmalade]

We've buggered the climate up so I think the only recourse now is a nationwide invoking of Sod's Law from here on out:

- All conceptions to take place between February and May

- NW to invest in new white water rapids and international open swimming events for winter...guaranteed never to see a drop of rain between November and March again

- Everyone book British seaside holidays in January and February

- No more purchasing of winter supplies. Government scheme to be implemented for the swapping of snow shovels/de-icer/thermals/hats/gloves/scarves for waders/emergency life-rafts/water wings/umbrellas/sunscreen 

- Queen's permanent residence to be moved to Alaska/Canada/NE USA, mandatory for the winter. If we can't have snow, they can't either

- All references to 'winter wonderlands' to include perpetual rain and gardens like a quagmire. Christmas cards to be changed to show soggy robins and kids in wellies trying to make mudmen

- MOST IMPORTANTLY: weather enthusiasts to start posting charts showing mild/rain, with comments like "this looks seasonal!" and "fingers crossed this verifies." Any snowy charts to be met with responses like "I really hope THAT one doesn't come off!" All official seasonal forecasts to be limited to mild and/or rain, no matter what the data show. Cold-lovers to be referred to as 'rainies'.

No, this is not scientific and yes, there are flaws in this plan  

[Relativistic]

It does seem that since solar activity started to increase four or five years ago after a long and deep minimum that, with the exception of Winter 2013, cold, wintry weather has featured less frequently in the UK. Perhaps as we start to slide down into a new solar minimum things may improve.

[Yarmy]

13 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

Well next winter we will probably be looking at a La Niña, easterly QBO and a weaker sun which would surely mean a colder winter

There is certainly some respectable research linking low solar activity, eQBO, and increased HLB especially over Greenland. However during the 08-11 period, solar activity was flatlining and we won't be at that point for a few years yet. 

[tynevalleysnow]

2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

There is certainly some respectable research linking low solar activity, eQBO, and increased HLB especially over Greenland. However during the 08-11 period, solar activity was flatlining and we won't be at that point for a few years yet. 

Plus the next solar cycle (25) could be delayed by 2-5 years meaning a weak sun for a prolonged period

http://earthsky.org/space/frank-hill-sees-future-sunspot-drop-no-new-ice-age

[Peter H]

To be honest, I don't think the sunspot cycles affect the weather all that much.

78/79 was a cracker of a winter, the best since 62/63 and probably the last really good one, apart from the early- mid 80's and 2009/10 and it coincided with a sunspot maximum that was far, far, better than this one.

All we can really hope for is that by the law of averages, this will all equalise itself out. We're long overdue a run of really cold winters at some stage. It's been far to long since this happened. The really annoying thing is I often see weather set ups in they summer that, had they occurred December/January would have led to exceptional winter weather.

The March 2013 was a case in point. A January set up like that would have been excellent, but it was 2 months too late. Sure, we had exceptional snow, but it was all up over the hills and not at sea level.

The weather in this country is often very frustrating, but I'm done with this winter as well now. By the time we get past mid February it's really too late.

 

Edited January 25, 2016 by Peter H

[Methuselah]

I agree Peter H; 1947 had both a severe winter and a long hot summer. Also at sunspot max.

[mushymanrob]

sorry, i dont believe in sunspots nor patterns like 3 mild winters . if it was that simple the scientists would have discovered it a long time ago.

[stevofunnelcl]

Hey folks talking Schafernaker, i posted in here, since off-topic in model discussion

This is a belter !!

 

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

34 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

sorry, i dont believe in sunspots nor patterns like 3 mild winters . if it was that simple the scientists would have discovered it a long time ago.

Well I wouldn't say I'm completely convinced by the 3 mild Winters then a colder one theme. But hey with this possibly ending up as the third mild Winter in a row I can't help but clutch to any straw I can in the hope that at least next Winter may be colder. Not that it would prove the theory though admittedly.

[Norway Nut]

mushymanrob said "sorry, i dont believe in sunspots nor patterns..... " So what's your take on what happened during the Maunder Minimum?  (1645 to about 1715)

I usually forecast a cold outbreak 6 weeks ahead somewhere in the N H when the sunspot numbers head south of 75 ( new method of counting sunspots) or 50 ( traditional method). Not very useful I admit!

I also read somewhere that there is a weak correlation with sunspots when the numbers go above 150 ( traditional method of counting sunspots) or perhaps 180 ( new method).

In amongst the 11, 22, 79, 180 and I think, a newly discovered (?) 360 year solar cycles ( not to mention the longer term orbital cycles) there's bound to be some linkage with the weather.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Norway Nut
correction to longest solar cycle

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Well I wouldn't say I'm completely convinced by the 3 mild Winters then a colder one theme. But hey with this possibly ending up as the third mild Winter in a row I can't help but clutch to any straw I can in the hope that at least next Winter may be colder. Not that it would prove the theory though admittedly.

This isn't exactly great viewing either, look at the pattern from roughly 1970 onward, how much more average winters have gradually become http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html