Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Liam J]

35 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

 

 

 

Indeed, these spells all occurred during the last week of February and the forecasters are saying 'coldest weather of the winter' and 'first snow of the winter' (in the south)... Certainly plenty more time left for wintry weather! 

[Essex snowman]

Sorry guys models now leaning towards milder south westerlies till middle of next week then west to north west nothing cold for the foreseeable 

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Indeed, these spells all occurred during the last week of February and the forecasters are saying 'coldest weather of the winter' and 'first snow of the winter' (in the south)... Certainly plenty more time left for wintry weather! 

yes... but i said UNLIKELY... as we often dont have a brief cold snap in late feb when there was no building blocks in place prior....

[Jason M]

Well, you can never completely write things off so early in the season, but model output is screaming Bartlett at the moment. I'd say 2-1 odds on a Bartlett (Winters over!), and about 7-1 on an easterly. The irony is that if the 7-1 shot comes in it could be a full on boom easterly.

Either way, I can't see a halfway house as things stand. We either smash the winter record high CET (and I do mean smash!) or we get a very cold easterly.

More runs needed.

[Weather-history]

20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yep history... cherry picking 3 years out of?   how long do records go back? those events were hardly widespread, lasting, episodes , and i did say UNLIKELY , which historically remains the case.

 

20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yep history... cherry picking 3 years out of?   how long do records go back? those events were hardly widespread, lasting, episodes , and i did say UNLIKELY , which historically remains the case.

3 years out of......23 years. That's all I went back to, I didn't even bother to look beyond this and you could argue, you could add 2006 into the equation. They are recent examples. That's all I have done. 

Edited January 20, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

well if GFS 12Z comes off that's it, no more snow low levels this season, wellies and umbrellas it is

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

well if GFS 12Z comes off that's it, no more snow low levels this season, wellies and umbrellas it is

It only goes out to the 5th of feb so i have no idea what you mean here 

[Liam J]

More flooding potential, just what we need! If we don't see any more snow this winter at least I had some on the ground the weekend just gone, which is better than recent winters! 

[Weather-history]

Maybe someone can explain this

From 54s to about 1.07, a darker ribbon seems to go through the clouds tracking north to south. The effect seems to cause the cloud above to melt away. It's not a contrail as they are straight and also the conditions were not suitable for long last contrails.

 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

It only goes out to the 5th of feb so i have no idea what you mean here 

Wet few weeks, milder, unsettled, and if it comes off with Dec just gone, on course maybe still for warmest winter on record, your location though more than likely to see more snow

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wet few weeks, milder, unsettled, and if it comes off with Dec just gone, on course maybe still for warmest winter on record, your location though more than likely to see more snow

But surely you c ant write off the whole of feb with a model run that goes out to the 5ht?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

But surely you c ant write off the whole of feb with a model run that goes out to the 5ht?

not actually writing it off, as it's FI, just IF it comes off, we're miles away from cold, but I do think 3 wet weeks coming up, taking us to around 12th Feb

[sundog]

20 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

3 years out of......23 years. That's all I went back to, I didn't even bother to look beyond this and you could argue, you could add 2006 into the equation. They are recent examples. That's all I have done. 

Also perhaps late Feb into march 2001 is another example.

[mushymanrob]

58 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

3 years out of......23 years. That's all I went back to, I didn't even bother to look beyond this and you could argue, you could add 2006 into the equation. They are recent examples. That's all I have done. 

not sure what the point is old chap.... 3 out of 23, possibly 2 more when there was a brief cold spell, thats 17 when there wasnt.... surely that qualifies as 'unlikely' does it not?... i didnt say there WONT be a cold snap... just that its unlikely IF theres no synoptic building blocks to allow one by mid feb (4 weeks time).

i cant really see what the issue is

[Thundery wintry showers]

The mild winter of 1987/88 also had a cold end of February/beginning of March, with widespread snow showers in the east on 24/25 February 1988 in particular, with lying snow penetrating to parts of the southeast, although it tended not to stick around for long.

Also, how about 1994/95, in that case it was western and midland areas that were particularly hit in early March.  

Edited January 20, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[knocker]

Latest from the woodshed for the beginning of Feb

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks about right to me, based on the latest model output.  I think there's a fair chance of that cold continental air extending further west and reaching Scandinavia, but I doubt that it will penetrate as far west as the British Isles.

[damianslaw]

Oh dear more winters over posts, and no chance of snow, that's it... exactly where we were at the end of the year, and look how things changed 2 weeks on.. I rarely look in this thread.. and I will continue to do so.. its the same in the summer, washout etc etc no sun no warmth... this is a depressing thread to read at anytime of the year.

[stevofunnelcl]

Well i go to Scotland for two years in a row, to get my snow fix

Scotland really delivers for the white stuff, just head for the high ground

It was snowing in Glasgow High street last Sunday evening, to the sound of Bagpipes. Fantastic

[knocker]

34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Oh dear more winters over posts, and no chance of snow, that's it... exactly where we were at the end of the year, and look how things changed 2 weeks on.. I rarely look in this thread.. and I will continue to do so.. its the same in the summer, washout etc etc no sun no warmth... this is a depressing thread to read at anytime of the year.

Not as depressing as the MOD thread. Some recent research has linked increasing activity there with the winter spike in Prozac sales.

[Liam J]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

 

3 years out of......23 years. That's all I went back to, I didn't even bother to look beyond this and you could argue, you could add 2006 into the equation. They are recent examples. That's all I have done. 

February 2009 also delivered deep snow and very low temps with a minimum of -18.4c recorded at Aviemore, I think even London had around 8 inches of snow and some areas more than double that. 

[knocker]

Well

[78/79]

I must admit I've enjoyed the past couple of days , a good sharp frost,and bright sunny days, makes you feel better in yourself. 

How anyone can say that they prefer Atlantic driven mild crap is totally beyond me. It's about as much use to anyone as a marzipan crowbar

[I remember Atlantic 252]

so have I, but we are now back to normal, as usual as model runs gone on, high pressure and settled weather downgrading, it always does, looking at a wet few days coming up, I need to start ignoring HP in FI, as it never happens

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Well

Indeed .... a head scratcher for the February CET guess, methinks!

The analogue GEFS anomalies from 00Z today.