Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[snowray]

No chance, Its only our English snow storms that ever fail!!

[knocker]

All the anomalies tonight have different interpretations so the evolution is along way from being a done deal so suffice it to say the flow remains in the westerly quadrant and there is no obvious route to advect the colder air situated to the east. Just a quick look at the ecm. Essentially it has the vortex N. Canada with associated trough mid Atlantic and the Euro HP shunted east. Ergo unsettled conditions bringing periods of wet and windy but more likely confined to the north.

By T360 the trough has shifted east bringing more general unsettled conditions to the UK

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, snowray said:

No chance, Its only our English snow storms that ever fail!!

yes only ours, just hope no posts about it will end up in regionals, this thread or MOD! there is a section on world weather, or if anyone starts a thread about it fine, I just won't view it

[snowray]

And where did yesterdays (monday) battleground snow end up? Charts still showing lots of heavy snow for central/Western areas last Fri/Sat, anyone see any snow yesterday? Pile of rubbish!!

 

Run after run of junk now.

Edited January 19, 2016 by snowray

[cheeky_monkey]

10 hours ago, Spah1 said:

America at it again. Another massive snow storm. 

America is a huge continent so there is always going to a massive snowstorm somewhere on most days during winter.

[knocker]

To my untutored eye the GFS and ecm outputs this morning reflect the GEFS anomalies. Both have HP adjacent to to the UK for much of the runs positioned variously to the south, south east, north east. The analysis of the anomalies also indicates this and with the Aleutian LP and vortex N. Canada stuck in position the idea of systems running NE mainly effecting the north and west with the drier weather concentrated to the south and east is easy to take on board.

The cold air remains locked away in eastern Europe so can it be unlocked? One way I suppose would be if the HP to the east amplified creating the surface HP cell further north followed by a little retrogression dance pushing any Atlantic trough west then you could theoretically create a long SE fetch and introduce some CAA and plunge the UK into some very cold air. Well that's the theory, back to reality.

[mountain shadow]

Only three posts in the main thread on the overnights says it all really.

Absolutely nothing of cold in the next couple of weeks and then we wait and see if the Strat warming delivers or not.

[Weather-history]

51 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

America is a huge continent so there is always going to a massive snowstorm somewhere on most days during winter.

That's true. Yeh there is likely a big snowstorm coming but weather enthusiasts over in the States are just as concerned as we would be  when it comes down to track of the system. 20 miles further north could mean the difference between a foot of snow and a horrible sleet/freezing rain mix.

[Essex snowman]

Think we can write of next 4 weeks at least yes people can say about strat warming but I'm not positive about that hope for better winter next year 

[mushymanrob]

the noaa's look, to me, like they support high pressure close to our south/southeast... the mean upper flow remains broadly  southwestherly .

an early taste of spring is in the offing... with chances of a cold evolution receding . is winter over? not with any certainty but the chances of a decent cold snowy spell must be taking a dive now . 

[sundog]

With it being an el nino winter who knows maybe this winter will have a sting in its tail,but the next few weeks   atm anyway look uninteresting fo coldies it has to be said.

[Liam J]

Just under 6 weeks of winter left so plenty of time for change, and if we're really desperate we can string it out to the 21st of March until the end of the astronomical winter!! Thankfully the weather doesn't care what season it is & wintry weather potential doesn't just stop once February is over and the risk of wintry weather extends well into the start of spring. But cold & snow in March aren't everyone's cup of tea, it takes something exceptional to get ice days in March and the stronger sun means more snow melt by day. 

[coldcomfort]

Well having perused all the latest available data, I conclude the hunt for Nessie would probably be easier and more fruitful than the hunt for cold atm.  Clearly things can change and I very much hope they do asap, but I can't help thinking that fabled torpedo might well be away and running, but it's guidance system has failed miserable and it's now rapidly heading back in our direction.....INCOMING!!!!!!! 

[knocker]

Once this week is out of the way it certainly looks unsettled for next. And no glimmer of light in the ext period.

[Evening thunder]

Some runs recently have had similar or milder uppers to what we often get for most of summer.

But what's this, another wild goose showing up on the 06z? I guess a lot will chase it.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Just under 6 weeks of winter left so plenty of time for change, and if we're really desperate we can string it out to the 21st of March until the end of the astronomical winter!! Thankfully the weather doesn't care what season it is & wintry weather potential doesn't just stop once February is over and the risk of wintry weather extends well into the start of spring. But cold & snow in March aren't everyone's cup of tea, it takes something exceptional to get ice days in March and the stronger sun means more snow melt by day. 

absolutely agree that we could get wintry weather into march.  but i think most cold fans here are looking for a decent dumping of snow, and thats unlikely into march. the direction the models are going suggests a shift away from a possible cold evolution - and cold evolutions (or any) dont usually pop out of nowhere but can be seen evolving as the synoptic pattern gets into a favourable position.

tbh, unless something pops up in the next 2 weeks (and it could do) then its unlikely that we will be getting any more snow this season.

[tight isobar]

@the shaffanaka incursion! !!!

[Jason M]

Yes, Tomas forecast looks a bit more relevant now. I actually thought it was a very good presentation and he explained his logic perfectly. Shame it wasn't more appreciated on these forums as the message was badly misrepresented.

[Liam J]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

tbh, unless something pops up in the next 2 weeks (and it could do) then its unlikely that we will be getting any more snow this season.

2 weeks will only take into the opening days of Feb, would you really write off the rest of winter based on what happens over the next 2 weeks? Feb can be a very wintry month but no guarantee of course... We shall see, 20 year anniversary coming up of the epic Feb 1996 blizzard, repeat to mark the occasion please

Lets hope charts like these continue to be churned out and gather cross model support into the reliable time frame (if you want wintry weather of course)...

GFS  GEM 

Edited January 20, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[knocker]

Grand day today with wall to wall sunshine

[mushymanrob]

53 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

2 weeks will only take into the opening days of Feb, would you really write off the rest of winter based on what happens over the next 2 weeks?

YES...... IF in 2 weeks time theres no sign of a synoptic / anomaly shift towards a pattern that would allow a decent cold spell. the noaa anomaly charts are thought to be 70% accurate, and in two weeks time they go out to two weeks from then, (4 weeks from now).  id suggest that it would be a fairly safe bet that there will be no decent cold spell IF and i do stress IF theres no 'building blocks' to allow one.

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

tbh, unless something pops up in the next 2 weeks (and it could do) then its unlikely that we will be getting any more snow this season.

Hey?  Based on what? Certainly not historically. 1993, 2004, 2005? 

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Hey?  Based on what? Certainly not historically. 1993, 2004, 2005? 

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

The GFS trick known within the magic circle as 'the Phantom Easterly'

Now you see it

Now you don't

Plus a quote from the other thread

Quote

I'm also nervously aware that the issues capturing the effects of the background El Nino state could mean that none of the output can really be trusted much at all beyond +96, maybe even sooner. We've had murmurings along such lines from Fergie in recent times, after all. Not at all helpful for someone who has a role to play in an 8-14 day outlook being issued before the day is out!

I'm not at all sure what he's getting at.

Edited January 20, 2016 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

42 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Hey?  Based on what? Certainly not historically. 1993, 2004, 2005? 

yep history... cherry picking 3 years out of?   how long do records go back? those events were hardly widespread, lasting, episodes , and i did say UNLIKELY , which historically remains the case.