Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[mushymanrob]

14 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I have a (fairly short) list of Mod thread commenters I trust - Gibby is one of them.

me too , if they have any cold weather reference in their username i ignore them!

[wishfulwinter]

7 months of learning blown away from the last 14 days of following the mod thread! Have no idea now if anything I thought I understood was correct or not!  Add to that the sleep deprivation, the highs and lows(!) That almost drove me to seek medical help for bipolar, I've decided to take a break from model watching and get outside to enjoy the real weather as it's happening! (Of course, I'll peep back in tonight for a few hours as always!)

[Norway Nut]

The locals don't consider it winter until the temp drops below 0 for at least 24 hours so we have had about 15 days of winter so far ( the average for my location is zero).

So here I am stuck in below zero temps ( and have been for the last 2 weeks at least) with only about 7.5 cm of lying snow. Think yourselves lucky that you don't have to dig your drive out on a semi regular basis.  I'm looking forward to May when any cold weather is limited to the odd snow/sleet shower ( I have video!).

[northwestsnow]

22 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Normal extreme straw clutching going on once again in the MOD, just can't be bothered with it tbh. Thankfully in here things are often looked at rather more realistically and the 06 again finds no trouble whatsoever all displacing the cold early next week....negative tilt, my arriss!

Hmmm you might want to revisit that post  , FAX charts say cold until later in the week as opposed to early in the week

[coldcomfort]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm you might want to revisit that post  , FAX charts say cold until later in the week as opposed to early in the week

Indeed, I did call it wrong. However I'm not the first to get a forecast wrong and I'm pretty sure won't be the last, so imo you are being a bit unreasonable...unless of course you intend to point this out out to each and every poster, each and every time they err?

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Indeed, I did call it wrong. However I'm not the first to get a forecast wrong and I'm pretty sure won't be the last, so imo you are being a bit unreasonable...unless of course you intend to point this out out to each and every poster, each and every time they err?

Well my post was light hearted with the smiley so it wasnt a dig to be honest

[Evening thunder]

Unbelievable really..

It was looking very cold night tonight, but this rudddy shortwave has changed that at less than one day out!! Can't remember such a change before. Also drags in milder air ensuring precip on Monday is all rain even on the moors [edit: in the SW..] and the 'cold snap' is over here (while other parts perhaps stay cold). Just dull, damp and maybe a bit chilly here. 

So much for that 'Exceptionally cold' stuff.. Even just now the BBC said 'remaining very cold into next week'.. Well, not here.

Coldest this winter is this morning at -2.9C, every winter I've recorded so far has got colder, so it is currently my worst winter on record an February has a lot to do to change that.

At least I saw some snow on Dartmoor yesterday.

It's only the weather I guess...

Edited January 16, 2016 by Evening thunder

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

14 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Unbelievable really..

It was looking very cold night tonight, but this rudddy shortwave has changed that at less than one day out!! Can't remember such a change before. Also drags in milder air ensuring precip on Monday is all rain even on the moors, and the 'cold snap' is over here (while other parts perhaps stay cold). Just dull, damp and maybe a bit chilly here. 

So much for that 'Exceptionally cold' stuff.. Even just now the BBC said 'remaining very cold into next week'.. Well, not here.

Coldest this winter is this morning at -2.9C, every winter I've recorded so far has got colder, so it is currently my worst winter on record an February has a lot to do to change that.

At least I saw some snow on Dartmoor yesterday.

It's only the weather I guess...

I appreciate that you're disappointed, but that really is the ultimate IMBY post.   Substantial parts of the country are due to stay cold until Thursday at least.

[Evening thunder]

22 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I appreciate that you're disappointed, but that really is the ultimate IMBY post.   Substantial parts of the country are due to stay cold until Thursday at least.

Well yes, hence using the word 'here' several times. Tbh it doesn't make much difference to me what happens in the rest of the country (and the SW rarely gets a lookin anyway), just makes it more frustrating.

[Edit: Well not completely true, it would be nice to see some snow-deprived folk getting some snow, but also a bit frustrating]

I needed a moan and this is why I put it in the moaning thread.. if I'm not allowed to talk about local conditions or represent my region I may as well stop posting (many talk about cold in the same way)

 

Edited January 16, 2016 by Evening thunder

[Chris1986]

Looking good on radar at the moment, slightly more progressive in reality at the moment on the radar but hopefully we should see the front stalling soon, question of where is still out there at the moment. Still looking good for most. Don't you just love now casting  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

nothing falling over Wales, precip that dosen't reach the ground, soggy night coming up for my location, what's the difference just looking out, rain 1C or rain 13C, I'd rather have rain 13C

[blizzard of 2016]

Current wintry mix and snow in the NW didn't really register on forecasts until back end of last Wednesday and Thursday? Just proves anything beyond 48-64 hours, given the complexities and evolving situation, is hardly worth stressing over. We know that any snowfall is a pain to forecast at the best of times, a few miles can make all the difference so patience really is a virtue. 

As for next week. Heads or tails? 

[cornish snow]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

Unbelievable really..

It was looking very cold night tonight, but this rudddy shortwave has changed that at less than one day out!! Can't remember such a change before. Also drags in milder air ensuring precip on Monday is all rain even on the moors [edit: in the SW..] and the 'cold snap' is over here (while other parts perhaps stay cold). Just dull, damp and maybe a bit chilly here. 

So much for that 'Exceptionally cold' stuff.. Even just now the BBC said 'remaining very cold into next week'.. Well, not here.

Coldest this winter is this morning at -2.9C, every winter I've recorded so far has got colder, so it is currently my worst winter on record an February has a lot to do to change that.

At least I saw some snow on Dartmoor yesterday.

It's only the weather I guess...

I know your pain but seen this soooooooo many times,water off a ducks back now.

Do what i do,forget about net weather for a bit,dont turn the telly on and get outside and enjoy living where we do because,come on,you wouldn't want to live anywhere else,would you?

Let them have their bit of snow.

[Arctic Hare]

Back for a moan (note: this is the moaning thread, among other things!) and then I'm going to follow @cornish snow's good advice. I live in a nice part of the world, and the weather isn't everything. After this post, I'm going to take a break from NW until I feel less grumpy.

Moan incoming -- I did warn you!

This is the worst "cold spell" I can remember. Yes, worse than last "winter". Yes, worse than 2013-14. Yes, meaning my area in particular, not the Pennines or Brecon Beacons. The MetO forecast (proper one, not the "symbol" thing) has been totally wrong less than 24 hours out two days running, and both days forecast sunshine has ended up being hours of cold rain. (It's raining right now. Steadily.) Last night's -2.4 °C is the "highlight" of the whole thing. People 10-20 miles away with only 50-100m more height have had snow when I've had rain. I've had the lamp on since mid-afternoon.

If I had to score this spell now, it would be 0/10. Give me a one-day wonder with three hours of wet snow followed by rain any day. It would be 100 times better than this dross.

And now it's break time. Good luck to anyone who does get snow, as I'm always pleased to see it when those who've missed out for years get some. Hopefully one day it'll be me, but until then it's better somebody than nobody. Time to do some non-weathery things for a bit.

[reef]

3 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

Unbelievable really..

It was looking very cold night tonight, but this rudddy shortwave has changed that at less than one day out!! Can't remember such a change before. Also drags in milder air ensuring precip on Monday is all rain even on the moors [edit: in the SW..] and the 'cold snap' is over here (while other parts perhaps stay cold). Just dull, damp and maybe a bit chilly here. 

So much for that 'Exceptionally cold' stuff.. Even just now the BBC said 'remaining very cold into next week'.. Well, not here.

Coldest this winter is this morning at -2.9C, every winter I've recorded so far has got colder, so it is currently my worst winter on record an February has a lot to do to change that.

At least I saw some snow on Dartmoor yesterday.

It's only the weather I guess...

During this cold spell we haven't got below -0.1C here so far. In fact, the lowest of the winter is -0.4C on the 1st January and we've only had three air frosts in total.

Its been a pretty poor effort so far really and we've still had no measurable snow since January 2013.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

under the circumstances I don't mind this 

pathetic cold spell, and for my location as of now it's over, might as well have it proper mild!

[NorthYorksWeather]

3 hours ago, reef said:

During this cold spell we haven't got below -0.1C here so far. In fact, the lowest of the winter is -0.4C on the 1st January and we've only had three air frosts in total.

Its been a pretty poor effort so far really and we've still had no measurable snow since January 2013.

 

Indeed, this winter so far is even worse that 13/14 which was an absolute shocker, its now been 3 years since any measurable snowfall and that includes Vale of York/Pickering, and most of East Yorkshire excluding the wolds. Areas to the N, S and W have seen something at least decent. Our luck has to change eventually @reef

[Tink 2010]

Evening all, thought I'd pop in and visit the moan thread for a change.  I'm feeling snow starved  but looking on the bright side I won't miss the slush that follows. 

[Carl46Wrexham]

As cold spells go, this one has been utterly wretched. One air frost, more than 2 inches of rain has fallen in the past 6 days resulting in every local field being either utterly soggy or partly flooded. No lying snow since the Boxing Day snowfall of 2014. 

And now the talk is of a breakdown. Breakdown of what? I for one will be glad to see the back of this not-really-all-that cold spell with its heavy rain and miserly single frosty night.

Good riddance. If there is to be another spell before this winter ends (and the clock is well and truly ticking now) I would hope it has a damn sight more teeth than this pathetic dismal wet spell has provided.

Rant over.

 

[Deep Snow please]

I know it's only the third week in January but I am writing this cold spell off now. It's been a constant stream of disappointment. We've had an absolute pile of dross. November and December were a constant stream of heavy rain and cloud, bar two snow events providing a measly inch or so each time. The majority of it was barmy in the 8-15C range  - temperatures that are not just unseasonable but offensive to the very idea of winter. This so cold snap has been an absolute farce, nothing unseasonable at all - a little bit of cold, some snow producing a few inches in places - but tonight we've had another let-down of a missed opportunity and stream of freezing cold in clear skies. Meanwhile have to watch Yorkshire and Manchester, and parts of Cumbria receive an absolute pasting from this event.

I'm really beginning to wonder if we'll ever see a proper winter like 2009/10, 2010/12 or 2013 again. This is the third winter in a row that has produced minimal falling snow, ridiculous amounts of rain and barely even chilly let alone actually cold temperatures. Worse still, the main feature imby of this feature has been black sheet ice that isn't fun, causing hell for the elderly and virtually anyone at this stage - if you can't get around by road in Tyne and Wear at this point you might want to by a pair of ice skates to last until Monday.

If winter can't provide us with a proper event it can mongoose off with it's half-hearted attempts at January.

Edited January 16, 2016 by Deep Snow please

[cornish snow]

Amazing how quickly this cold spell has given way. Couple of night's ago,saturday night was supposed to be the coldest night with severe frosts,even here (-2,-3) was quoted.

At 2200,the temp at culdrose air base was 6.6c. Quite a difference.

Dont think iv'e ever seen quite such a turnaround.

Feeling mild outside now,the cold spell lasted about 1 day here,awesome

[Liam J]

Woke up to a harsh frost this morning with a low of -3.8c, snow started early afternoon quite light and sporadic at first but got heavier late evening and left 1-2cm by 8pm, max temp today briefly reached 1.7c before dropping when the snow started... Current temp 0.2c, glad I've seen some snowfall and bitterly cold temps for a few days as that may be it for winter!! hope not though...  

[snow mad]

Yes this cold spell is pathetic! Not even cold. I feel like I've wasted to many hours of my life looking at the model runs over the last three years. This wasn't even a cold spell it was an average spell borrring 

[Thundery wintry showers]

On 1/15/2016 at 10:55 PM, feb1991blizzard said:

Synoptically though if you got proper blocking highs then the SST's would blast the floodgates open due to steeper vertical temperature gradient surely, you want to pump as much warm air as possible poleward in my book as it surely promotes wave breaking as well?

The Greenland High cold/snow setups tend to have a lot of warm air advection up the western side of Greenland, resulting in anomalous warmth in western Greenland and northern Canada, while the Svalbard/Franz Josef Land sector of the Arctic sees close to or below-average temperatures, resulting in potent cold blasts from the N and possibly NE.  This was the prevailing setup during the winter months of 2009 and 2010.

The Scandinavian High setup tends to see unusually warm temperatures pumped into the Svalbard/Franz Josef Land area, while northern Canada and, most importantly for us, continental Europe, ends up very cold.  Hence the potential for very cold air to come across from the east.

The point being that, for cold snowy weather, we are looking for significant poleward inputs of warm air to affect parts of the inner Arctic Circle but with colder air on the other side of the block that then comes our way- having anomalous warmth across the whole Arctic doesn't particularly help because it means that none of our blasts originating from a long way north are likely to be particularly cold.

That said, the recent period has had unusually cold temperatures over Scandinavia, so if we'd been able to get a draw of north-easterlies, it could have been a major snowfest for eastern areas with the high SSTs around the UK and the deep cold Scandinavian air creating very vigorous convection over the North Sea.  But instead we've had north-westerly and northerly winds pulling air down from around the Svalbard area, which has been about 10 degrees above the normal for the time of year.

Edited January 17, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[markyo]

Lovely start to a day,even before dawn the beauty of the laying snow is a much welcomed sight!