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Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Disappointing gfs a bit of back track back towards the 00 oz run. Really struggled to get the cold uppers across us and briefly manages it Wednesday and then finally on Thursday. Hopefully ECM will be much better.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
47 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Can I ask something here, please?  We often see model verification stats which show the GFS trailing the other two main models right from +24 hours through to Fi, yet there's more than one poster in the model thread stating that GFS shows the way, and the outcome post-cold snap is inevitably going to follow the GFS outputs, which, apparently, are showing a Bartlett set-up with blowtorch SWerlies.  Surely this analysis is flawed given the stats?

I expect they will quote Samuel Clemens :whistling:

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snefnug Seasoned

snefnug

Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
Posted
19 minutes ago, knocker said:

Had a chance to use all my crayons this evening and not a phasing shortwave in sight.

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_40.thumb.png.90e4049b

Wicked Knocker!

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78/79 Accomplished

78/79

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
Posted

Liking the look of the charts today, proper seasonal temperatures and a rest from the relentless Atlantic crap of the past 2 months. Not too worried about snow myself,  won;'t complain if we get some :) Would be nice for the youngsters to see a good helping though,

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sparky1972 Community Regular

sparky1972

Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
Posted

well after a good day having a few beers and watching the mighty peterborough beat preston north end at london rd, thought i would check the model thread and there seems to be a bit more positivity regarding the up comming colder shot, fingers crossed we get to see a bit of snow

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Had a chance to use all my crayons this evening and not a phasing shortwave in sight.

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_40.thumb.png.90e4049b

Yay more rain for the NW exactly what is wanted. 

In all seriousness I hope the GFS is wrong and the ECM is somewhat right a nice UK high would be welcomed with opening arms.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
10 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Yay more rain for the NW exactly what is wanted. 

In all seriousness I hope the GFS is wrong and the ECM is somewhat right a nice UK high would be welcomed with opening arms.

Oh I think the ecm will be nearer the money although I would give short odds that the shortwave over N. Ireland at 00 Thursday and running SE to be 1004mb Ramsgate by 1800 will not verify

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

It's been nervous times......  Sometimes get a feeling GFS has the power to do this with the PV..

 

 

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pegg24 Enthusiast

pegg24

Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
Posted

Are we going to get some cold weather then to start with everytime I look keeps getting put back. Feed up of this rain will take cold and dry if we cant get snow.:wallbash:

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Lake District Blizzards Apprentice

Lake District Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Northern Lake District 150m
  • Location: Northern Lake District 150m
Posted

bbc weather now showing south westerly winds for wednesday....

 

their chart has the low pulling in sw winds and then for the high to sink with low pressure coming over the top

is this way behind the rest or a distinct possibility?

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

bbc weather now showing south westerly winds for wednesday....

 

their chart has the low pulling in sw winds and then for the high to sink with low pressure coming over the top

is this way behind the rest or a distinct possibility?

Sounds as though their in-house models (GLOSEA5 etc.) are in agreement with 12z GFS, which wants to flatten the Atlantic ridge and re-introduce zonal westerlies.  What's concerning is that the GEFS (GFS ensembles) are apparently trending towards the operational run.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typo.
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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

A general whinge and not weather related,why oh why do some members quote a whole post with a two sentence reply it so dammit irritating,why not just quote the persons name,just spent ages reading the same post over and over again

C.S 

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
16 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

why oh why do some members quote a whole post with a two sentence reply it so dammit irritating

here here

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
1 hour ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

bbc weather now showing south westerly winds for wednesday....

 

their chart has the low pulling in sw winds and then for the high to sink with low pressure coming over the top

is this way behind the rest or a distinct possibility?

And what does the Met O web site show at the same time?

It would not be the first time if they show a different set up.

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Lake District Blizzards Apprentice

Lake District Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Northern Lake District 150m
  • Location: Northern Lake District 150m
Posted
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

And what does the Met O web site show at the same time?

It would not be the first time if they show a different set up.

pretty much the same thing?

 

metslp.96.png

metslp.120.png

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LeeTofficial Rookie

LeeTofficial

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow snow
  • Location: Barnsley
Posted
21 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

A general whinge and not weather related,why oh why do some members quote a whole post with a two sentence reply it so dammit irritating,why not just quote the persons name,just spent ages reading the same post over and over again

C.S 

This annoys me as well

 

someone has just done it again quoted huge post with 1 line nothing related to the models :wallbash:

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

It is probably a better idea to see what the 850 wind directions are as the low tracks ? SE, along with what 850mb temperatures it suggests over you?

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Aqbadger Rookie

Aqbadger

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted (edited)

Hi everyone.

Newbie here, been following the model thread but it would appear asking questions in there isn't very well regarded so....

Where do i find out about what models are, when they run and what the abbreviations are that everyone uses? I did try the learner area but found it a little difficult to use

Ta

Edited by Aqbadger
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Aqbadger Rookie

Aqbadger

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted
36 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Hi, welcome to the forum!

I don't know whether this thread will help you out at all, with the answers to some of your questions?

 

 

Thanks TB!

 

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