Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Yarmy]

Curse of bl**dy Madden strikes again! As soon as that clown starts jumping on the bandwagon, you know a giant pothole awaits.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

This was always destined to be a let down....dosent matter what the experts in the mod thread say...until its backed by the meto with all their secret models and data i refuse to believe....also good to see ian brown back on the forum under the guise of syrnix.

Hardly secret when, until someone decided to sling mud at him, Ian Fergusson gave us a pretty good idea of what it showed and what the Met Office forecast team thought, surely?

[Timmytour]

Just goes to show why winters like 1947 and 62/63 are so far and few between.....  first of all so many things have to go right and then so many things have to not go wrong!!   It's like trying a shuffle a pack cards to get them in a precise order at times.

Whoever says time-travel is still waiting to be invented hasn't been on the Model thread.......I've been to  February 1947, December 1962 and January 2015 over there!

Edited January 8, 2016 by Timmytour

[chicken soup]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Hardly secret when, until someone decided to sling mud at him, Ian Fergusson gave us a pretty good idea of what it showed and what the Met Office forecast team thought, surely?

Im not on about fergie....i meant ian brown who used to post his negative viewpoint on the mod thread...think he got banned eventualy , even though he was more often than not correct.....mogreps and glosea5 are essentialy secret models which joe public has no access too.

Edited January 8, 2016 by chicken soup

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Im not on about fergie....i meant ian brown who used to post his negative viewpoint on the mod thread...think he got banned eventualy , even though he was more often than not correct.

I know, I meant your comment regarding the Met Office having 'secret models' as though you envisage them as being similar to this chap:

 

Anyway, back to model moans, I wonder if the rearrangement of the NH profile in the GFS suggests that this winter has become an "all-or-nothing" based on whether we see an SSW or not?

Edited January 8, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[cyclonic happiness]

6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Just goes to show why winters like 1947 and 62/63 are so far and few between.....  first of all so many things have to go right and then so many things have to not go wrong!!   It's like trying a shuffle a pack cards to get them in a precise order at times.

Whoever says time-travel is still waiting to be invented hasn't been on the Model thread.......I've been to  February 1947, December 1962 and January 2015 over there!

I just want a normal winter like 87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95 etc

We should see snow here on average around 5-10 times per year. How much snow have we had falling the last two and three-quater years?  3 times!   How many settling for more than 20 minutes?  1!

The weather is so damn buggered up that we can't even get average weather now, it's all watered down, boring crap.

I really hate this period of weather, truly hate it!

Edited January 8, 2016 by cyclonic happiness

[Methuselah]

26 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

They cannot handle it when major changes are on the horizon. They never have imo.

That doesnt mean we're suddenly going to flip to a v cold and snowy picture cone this time next week either.

Just a case of waiting to see whether the flipped coin lands on heads or tails.

But we could quite easily (Eastern Europe and Scandinavia are certainly cold enough - Helsinki -24C at midday yesterday!) experience our coldest Feb-March-April period since 1975!

Edited January 8, 2016 by Ed Stone

[Southender]

GFS will have us in shorts and Tee's by next weekend with winds sourced from Morocco/Algeria

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, Shrimper said:

GFS will have us in shorts and Tee's by next weekend with winds sourced from Morocco/Algeria

Would it be dry, though?  If it was, it would help those areas which suffered during December, and it would be mild and pleasant to do stuff outdoors.

[Southender]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Would it be dry, though?  If it was, it would help those areas which suffered during December, and it would be mild and pleasant to do stuff outdoors.

For a while yes and HP drifts in bringing up Southerly winds. Will be much drier and probably feel quite pleasant in any sunshine. However this is not what I want in January!!

[summer blizzard]

Have to say that people are far too depressed. Even if we take the worst case scenario for England shown on the 12z then it's solidly cold with snow on western facing areas from Weds-Sat with the front crossing on Sunday. On top of that, it's already cooler now. 

To have a week where much of England will see plenty of frost and Sun is something most will will be pleased for.

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Shrimper said:

GFS will have us in shorts and Tee's by next weekend with winds sourced from Morocco/Algeria

Surface inversion until the front passes on Sunday ensures you'll need your coat.

[pleasesnownow]

Some lovely snow here at last! ❄️❄️

[daz_4]

I'm not surprised. Isn't it how it works these past three years? Getting decent winter to Europe is like 100 km marathon in desert where you almost die several times and IF you reach the finish line, you have almost nothing left. Getting warm air to Europe is like using a new, modern highway.

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

just a waiting game now, logging off till Sunday when hopefully things will have swung back in favour, razor blades out in model thread!!?? Bonkers Fickle Bunch

[ManiaMuse]

I'll gladly take more mild and damp. Cold and especially ice and snow is just a nuisance and of no use for anything in this country (apart from a few ski resorts in Scotland and possibly the outdoor ice rinks, but they should know better than setting up their rinks so early when there is no guarantee of a cold winter in this country!)

Get the feeling that some in the model thread have been counting their chickens before they hatch. I've been lurking for years and still don't understand any of the charts but even I know that anything beyond 3 days is really still a probability guessing game even with the best cross-model support.

Days are gradually getting longer so at least that takes the edge off some of the gloominess. South Manchester seems to have quite a nice rain shadow with the recent weather patterns. Certainly hasn't felt anywhere near the 'wettest December on record', London in 2013 seemed much worse. Although of course sympathies to those affected by the flooding.

There, I said it, I'm hoping for the models to continue with their flip back to mild. Do I get banned for that opinion?

[Southender]

Unfortunately for those of us that have been on here for a number of years, these switches happen every single winter. If a proper cold spell can go wrong and 1 model starts sniffing out a spoiler, the rest usually follow as we are seeing here.

Wouldn't it be nice if the models for once showed raging SW'lys then they all flipped to show a raging E'ly within +144. Unfortunately the other way around is a common occurrence for us. We still fall for it every winter though 

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

haha! I think the far superior would have somethings to say 

[Weather-history]

Some good sunny spells in the afternoon.  Seems to be getting sunnier and sunnier each day. 

 

 

 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

9 minutes ago, ManiaMuse said:

I'll gladly take more mild and damp. Cold and especially ice and snow is just a nuisance and of no use for anything in this country (apart from a few ski resorts in Scotland and possibly the outdoor ice rinks, but they should know better than setting up their rinks so early when there is no guarantee of a cold winter in this country!)

Get the feeling that some in the model thread have been counting their chickens before they hatch. I've been lurking for years and still don't understand any of the charts but even I know that anything beyond 3 days is really still a probability guessing game even with the best cross-model support.

Days are gradually getting longer so at least that takes the edge off some of the gloominess. South Manchester seems to have quite a nice rain shadow with the recent weather patterns. Certainly hasn't felt anywhere near the 'wettest December on record', London in 2013 seemed much worse. Although of course sympathies to those affected by the flooding.

There, I said it, I'm hoping for the models to continue with their flip back to mild. Do I get banned for that opinion?

Thanks for rubbing salt into the wounds of every coldie, even moderate types like me!  I'm glad that your area of the north-west has escaped flooding; all I would say is that your expression of sympathy seems rather empty after you've said that you want more wet weather for the sake of it being mild.  If Mods might let me go O/T for a moment before I get back to the point of this thread, I doubt that anyone denies you the right to express a preference for mild, but I'd love to know who made you the final arbiter of whether a particular type of weather was of any use in the entire UK!

Back to the subject at hand; if we are to go mild again around next Saturday, will it last?  I fear it might, though I want to be proven wrong.

Edited January 8, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, ManiaMuse said:

I'll gladly take more mild and damp. Cold and especially ice and snow is just a nuisance and of no use for anything in this country (apart from a few ski resorts in Scotland and possibly the outdoor ice rinks, but they should know better than setting up their rinks so early when there is no guarantee of a cold winter in this country!)

Get the feeling that some in the model thread have been counting their chickens before they hatch. I've been lurking for years and still don't understand any of the charts but even I know that anything beyond 3 days is really still a probability guessing game even with the best cross-model support.

Days are gradually getting longer so at least that takes the edge off some of the gloominess. South Manchester seems to have quite a nice rain shadow with the recent weather patterns. Certainly hasn't felt anywhere near the 'wettest December on record', London in 2013 seemed much worse. Although of course sympathies to those affected by the flooding.

There, I said it, I'm hoping for the models to continue with their flip back to mild. Do I get banned for that opinion?

I am to the west of Manchester, no more rain thank you. 

You won't enjoy the rain when it's accompanied by a WNWly wind and showers are so frequent that's it virtual continuous rain. Seen that many a time and during the summer as well.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I am to the west of Manchester, no more rain thank you. 

You won't enjoy the rain when it's accompanied by a WNWly wind and showers are so frequent that's it virtual continuous rain. Seen that many a time and during the summer as well.

Yes, but don't you realise that ManiaMuse isn't flooded, and likes it mild!  Plus, as he/she has definitively stated, cold weather has no use in the UK!

From my POV, a mild, dry southerly wouldn't be that unpleasant; that being said, it would be nice if today wasn't my last frost of the winter.

Edited January 8, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I am to the west of Manchester, no more rain thank you. 

You won't enjoy the rain when it's accompanied by a WNWly wind and showers are so frequent that's it virtual continuous rain. Seen that many a time and during the summer as well.

 

Yes agree, GFS 12Z alright really, to me it dosen't scream rain, quite an unusual run for January, mostly settled,

ManiaMuse one for the ignore list

[ReindeerMarmalade]

15 minutes ago, ManiaMuse said:

I'll gladly take more mild and damp. Cold and especially ice and snow is just a nuisance and of no use for anything in this country 

<snip>

There, I said it, I'm hoping for the models to continue with their flip back to mild.

Must be just awful preferring the weather we usually get in this country. It's nice to see you're soldiering on, though, and I hope you had the support of family and friends during the incredibly difficult past few days when it looked like we actually risked having seasonal weather in winter  

And I think we're all in agreement rain is never an inconvenience. Right, Cumbria? 

[ManiaMuse]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Thanks for rubbing salt into the wounds of every coldie, even moderate types like me!  I'm glad that your area of the north-west has escaped flooding; all I would say is that your expression of sympathy seems rather empty after you've said that you want more wet weather for the sake of it being mild.  If Mods might let me go O/T for a moment before I get back to the point of this thread, I doubt that anyone denies you the right to express a preference for mild, but I'd love toknow who made you the final arbiter of whether a particular type of weather was of any use in the entire UK!

Back to the subject at hand; if we are to go mild again around next Saturday, will it last?  I fear it might, though I want to be proven wrong.

No-one did, but I'd gladly listen to examples where cold/snowy/icy is good for people or industry in this country. This country simply isn't prepared like other countries for deep sustained cold/snow for the simple reason that it is pretty rare, definitely not as common as people seem to expect. Growing up in the East Midlands in the 90s I can only remember one properly cold and snowy winter and in the 00s it almost never snowed from my memory. 2009/2010 seems to have distorted expectations of cold prospects in this country I think.

And I didn't say I wanted more wet, just damp and gloomy if that is the price for mild.  Or at a push seasonal temperatures but dry.