Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Liam J]

Only had one air frost since beginning of December (none in autumn), so I've scraped the car once this season and that's quite rare... Maybe a few more windscreen scrapes next week! 

[Hocus Pocus]

Having had the misfortune of trawling through the mod thread one thing instantly struck me ( well two things  actually but the latter is more about people's personalities, some which appear disturbing ), how is it when a milder outcome is shown at +144 it's treated as a given despite the complexities in forecasting  beyond the 7-10 day range. 

Now what makes this more fascinating from a psychologist's point of view anyway, is why some find it in themselves to take as gospel that such an outcome will be right and more so with such a messy set up that can still go either way. All I'll say is that  these irrational prima donnas who get worked up on whether it will snow in their backyard next week really need to immerse themselves in something worthwhile in life. 

[chris78]

Mod thread is very frustrating as usual, have a look at how many posters are slagging of any negative posts about the upcoming cold spell, using very sensible points such as, 'lots can change' 'its only a couple of runs'  the very true 'computers dont dictate the weather' and the equally true how can an event that hasnt happened be downgraded'.   All good points if it wasnt for the fact the very same people get hyperbolic about any model run that shows decent cold.

Now i dont know what will happen re. the cold spell, nobody does, but here are the facts,  36 hrs ago ish there was fairly good agreement for deep cold to get to the UK and it looked like it could get last, now that longevity is much less certain and the depth of cold reduced.   People are allowed to feel a bit downbeat about that.

 

Caution should always be applied to any forecast or model run, but if you are allowed to get exited and positive about a good chart, why are others not allowed to be a bit negative and downbeat about a less good chart.

Just because we will get some colder weather next week doesnt mean people arent allowed to be a disappointed that it isnt as cold as they had hoped.   If someone told you they might give you £10,000 next week, but then only gave you £100, youre still a £100 up but may feel a bit disappointed.

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And what about your cronies at the Guardian with their super duper, and anyway, the so called purbeyors of poo get all their info from these stuck up Islington B-liar-ite youngters from the internet anyway, i mean a 5c global increase by 2100 - do me a favour - get a grip.

well my theory is that the hacks from the rags/ comics, read the ramped biased hysterical posts in the md thread. in which case their 'snowbomb' headlines are justified in their eyes.

25 minutes ago, snow freak said:

I think its a total waste of time watching the models now after following the models thread for the past few days.  Yesterday it was all excitement about the cold prospects for next week and today the models have done a virtual u turn.  if the models cannot reliably predict beyond 3-5 days then what is the point of even looking at them.  I really can't see why bother to get all wound up just to be disappointed yet again.  I give up with this winter now.

oh come on! dont you understand what the models actually do? they are PREDICTIONS based on current data, ever changing data at that. they are NOT accurate for a week ahead (which is when they started suggesting a big freeze) , and you should never ever let personal desire taint you view.

the noaa charts NEVER allowed for the 'big freeze' the gfs (in particular) was suggesting, yet again its looking like the noaa anomaly charts are going to call it right over the ops (for that time range).

too many people were lead up the garden path by people who should know better, and yet again premature excitement and hyperbole has lead to mass disappointment.  yet these pied pipers still remain popular whilst us realists who doubted the amplified charts the gfs produced are ignored... lol...

watch the noaa anomaly charts, coupled with realism over desire, and youll avoid disappointment.

[mushymanrob]

10 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Having had the misfortune of trawling through the mod thread one thing instantly struck me ( well two things  actually but the latter is more about people's personalities, some which appear disturbing ), how is it when a milder outcome is shown at +144 it's treated as a given despite the complexities in forecasting  beyond the 7-10 day range. 

 

because a southwesterly mild pattern is our default setting

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

well my theory is that the hacks from the rags/ comics, read the ramped biased hysterical posts in the md thread. in which case their 'snowbomb' headlines are justified in their eyes.

oh come on! dont you understand what the models actually do? they are PREDICTIONS based on current data, ever changing data at that. they are NOT accurate for a week ahead (which is when they started suggesting a big freeze) , and you should never ever let personal desire taint you view.

the noaa charts NEVER allowed for the 'big freeze' the gfs (in particular) was suggesting, yet again its looking like the noaa anomaly charts are going to call it right over the ops (for that time range).

too many people were lead up the garden path by people who should know better, and yet again premature excitement and hyperbole has lead to mass disappointment.  yet these pied pipers still remain popular whilst us realists who doubted the amplified charts the gfs produced are ignored... lol...

watch the noaa anomaly charts, coupled with realism over desire, and youll avoid disappointment.

HA HA, actually tbf i have heard (i cant remember where so wont say which newspaper but its a mid market right wing tabloid), that they are getting cleaver in terms of finding charts to support their claims and they just find a model in FI with a really bitter scenario and actually spin it as being likely to verify, on a serious note though i do get a bee in my bonnet because some newspapers seem immune from criticism in here due to their climate change agenda, i actually scientists that actually talk of such huge increases in global temperature as if its armaggedon actually also don't do themselves any favours either.

[mushymanrob]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HA HA, actually tbf i have heard (i cant remember where so wont say which newspaper but its a mid market right wing tabloid), that they are getting cleaver in terms of finding charts to support their claims and they just find a model in FI with a really bitter scenario and actually spin it as being likely to verify, on a serious note though i do get a bee in my bonnet because some newspapers seem immune from criticism in here due to their climate change agenda, i actually scientists that actually talk of such huge increases in global temperature as if its armaggedon actually also don't do themselves any favours either.

the mail and in particular the express though post hysterical headlines every time theres a hint of cold, or heat, in this day and age i reckon theyd check what the knowledgeable (or apparent knowledgeable) say in forums. 

more serious papers reporting on climate change are reporting what their info tells them - theres the difference. and very few people read the gurniad anyway! lol

[Buzz]

41 minutes ago, snow freak said:

I think its a total waste of time watching the models now after following the models thread for the past few days.  Yesterday it was all excitement about the cold prospects for next week and today the models have done a virtual u turn.  if the models cannot reliably predict beyond 3-5 days then what is the point of even looking at them.  I really can't see why bother to get all wound up just to be disappointed yet again.  I give up with this winter now.

 

41 minutes ago, snow freak said:

 

There's actually nothing "wrong" with looking at the models beyond 3-5 days but it's a case of using that output as an indicator of trends, nothing more than that, particularly when the models are obviously "struggling" with predicting what will happen.

Unfortunately too many people look at great (or awful) charts 5+ days away and immediately think that they will come off.

This is further exacerbated, particularly in situations like this, where a few of the experts (who are also cold fanatics) get over-excited and almost end up like religious leaders with their cold followers hanging onto their every word. Unfortunately this all too often ends in disappointment.

My "golden rule" with the model output is not to take too much notice of anything beyond 3 days. By all means look beyond that, but don't pin your hopes (or fears) on what is shown.

 

[chris78]

1 hour ago, chris78 said:

Mod thread is very frustrating as usual, have a look at how many posters are slagging of any negative posts about the upcoming cold spell, using very sensible points such as, 'lots can change' 'its only a couple of runs'  the very true 'computers dont dictate the weather' and the equally true how can an event that hasnt happened be downgraded'.   All good points if it wasnt for the fact the very same people get hyperbolic about any model run that shows decent cold.

Now i dont know what will happen re. the cold spell, nobody does, but here are the facts,  36 hrs ago ish there was fairly good agreement for deep cold to get to the UK and it looked like it could get last, now that longevity is much less certain and the depth of cold reduced.   People are allowed to feel a bit downbeat about that.

 

Caution should always be applied to any forecast or model run, but if you are allowed to get exited and positive about a good chart, why are others not allowed to be a bit negative and downbeat about a less good chart.

Just because we will get some colder weather next week doesnt mean people arent allowed to be a disappointed that it isnt as cold as they had hoped.   If someone told you they might give you £10,000 next week, but then only gave you £100, youre still a £100 up but may feel a bit disappointed.

...and just to add, when someone in the mod thread points out a model 'downgrade' of the cold, they are not getting depressed, or suicidal, they are commenting on what they see in the models.....

Several posts today and last night start with things like...the mood in here is awful or similar........ no you have read some posts you dont like and your mood is awful.....    

 

There is another just now....'peeps are panicking' are they really ... panicking..... or are they discussing the models....

 

and another 'what an over reaction' ...... by who?

 

Everyone STOP having a go at any post that doesnt predict 2010!

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by chris78

[feb1991blizzard]

Another crap run, another nail in the coffin.

[heccygabber]

Well hopefully the models flip again and give us all the cold we want.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Seems that only the MetO knows how to read them properly?

Absolutely.  From now on the only thing I'm paying any attention-to is the Met Office forecast (longer-range one on their website).

[coldcomfort]

The main positive for me is it's going to become a good deal drier and I'm sure the very many folk who have been flooded would say a big hallelujah to that! OK the 06 GFS doesn't go so far as to destroy the 00 'milder' theme, but it's 'yet another take' on likely events does highlight the huge amount of uncertainty even as early as T+84hrs, so imo the coffin lid is not even on, let alone nailed down at this stage... 

[griff74]

I can't understand people being so despondent at the moment, I am no weather expert but enjoy reading the MOD thread etc, IF's Twitter post that has been quoted in there sums it all up perfectly, no one is sure what is going to happen as all the models are struggling with what is going on and the Met's latest outlook shows they have no idea really either!

 

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Further rain, sleet and snow in the north on Sunday. Otherwise showers or longer spells of rain; some snow in the north. Colder conditions spreading erratically southwards through next week.

[Sara_south_yorks]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Only had one air frost since beginning of December (none in autumn), so I've scraped the car once this season and that's quite rare... Maybe a few more windscreen scrapes next week! 

Is this what we have been reduced to....looking forward to windscreen scrapes  it's laughable really, we deserve so much more lol 

[Jason H]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another crap run, another nail in the coffin.

If you're looking for another Feb1991 blizzard then put a few more nails in

[chris78]

1 minute ago, griff74 said:

I can't understand people being so despondent at the moment, I am no weather expert but enjoy reading the MOD thread etc, IF's Twitter post that has been quoted in there sums it all up perfectly, no one is sure what is going to happen as all the models are struggling with what is going on and the Met's latest outlook shows they have no idea really either!

 

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Further rain, sleet and snow in the north on Sunday. Otherwise showers or longer spells of rain; some snow in the north. Colder conditions spreading erratically southwards through next week.

Who (other than perhaps Feb1991blizzard) is being despondent....people keep saying this...I dont see it, I see ppl saying its not as a good a run as a few days ago.....but thats just a fact.

[ChrisWSM]

The weather is basically a Pantomime...Its behind you

 

Still I had to defrost the car this morning...

[griff74]

7 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Who (other than perhaps Feb1991blizzard) is being despondent....people keep saying this...I dont see it, I see ppl saying its not as a good a run as a few days ago.....but thats just a fact.

feb1991blizzard    2,416

 

Another crap run, another nail in the coffin.

There are others in other threads as well.

Edited January 8, 2016 by griff74

[Steve C]

I'm looking forward to the next Tamara or Glacier Point posting for some longer term perspective therapy.  Shorter term is doing my head in.

I'm also unsure as to whether I've made myself look a proper mug in making a weather related posting on Facebook a couple of days ago...

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Jason H said:

If you're looking for another Feb1991 blizzard then put a few more nails in

That's exactly what i look for or a 1987 but a 2009/2010 would still do a job for me, the Ensembles look better SO FAR though.

[chris78]

1 minute ago, griff74 said:

feb1991blizzard    2,416

 

Another crap run, another nail in the coffin.

 

I did say apart from feb1991blizzard. 

[knocker]

Leaving aside any possible repercussions from 'the low' for the moment the anomalies this morning do have an upper air structure in place that would facilitate a cold snap from Weds to around Saturday. By then the adjustments to the alignment and strength of the Greenland HP and the trough to the east are under way and the flow over the UK is backing NW later becoming westerly.

[griff74]

Just now, chris78 said:

I did say apart from feb1991blizzard.

I know, I meant to say and others in other threads, I think it's more the general tone, a lot of people are still very upbeat though about the prospects (myself included), I have been caught short with fuel for my stove in the living room though, with it being so mild we've hardly had it lit and thus haven't thought about getting anything delivered, will have to rectify that this weekend!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

9 minutes ago, Steve C said:

I'm looking forward to the next Tamara or Glacier Point posting for some longer term perspective therapy.  Shorter term is doing my head in.

I'm also unsure as to whether I've made myself look a proper mug in making a weather related posting on Facebook a couple of days ago...

I hate to say this, but I have little faith in the long-range, global pattern prognostications of either Stewart or Tamara, well-intentioned though they are.