Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[cornish snow]

3 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

 

Trust me i know what to expect! I moved down from the midlands thirty years ago and have only seen liying snow a handfull of times. 

My point was that imo the mark of a proper cold spell is if we can get snow in around the lizzard . Only then can we say its been special 

Or maybe im just being shellfish. 

Your alright,you've got Dartmoor on your doorstep. 

[BM4PM]

Just now, cornish snow said:

Your alright,you've got Dartmoor on your doorstep. 

Take the mrs shoping tell her the bridge is shut due to metal fatigue and the ferry was sunk by the storms. Only one other way into plymouth  

[cornish snow]

Just now, BM4PM said:

Take the mrs shoping tell her the bridge is shut due to metal fatigue and the ferry was sunk by the storms. Only one other way into plymouth  

LOL I will bear that in mind. Try Bodmin moor first though,shorter drive

[chionomaniac]

ECM overnight is a great run for potential - but for lots in the southern half of the UK it is the cold rain/ sleet run!

[Norway Nut]

Ahhhhh, I remember this scenario well from my youth.

[snowblizzard]

It's looking much better now!

Edited January 7, 2016 by snowblizzard

[snefnug]

Cripes, it's a tad cold where you are! Norway Nut.

Edited January 7, 2016 by snefnug

[coldcomfort]

I think we still have to be concerned about whether the cold will manage to flood south across all parts of the UK, I'm wasn't overly confident yesterday and I'm even less so today, that mid Atlantic LP could well prove to be our nemesis.

Edit: Just heard KK say turning colder in the north next week, but temperatures remaining close to average in the south, which neatly and rather frustratingly explains the MO's current thought pattern.

[knocker]

Looking at the ecm anomaly this morning raises the question of whether lows developing away to the SW courtesy the upper trough travel NE into Britain or take a smart right turn into Europe. Sidney fancies the latter at this stage.

[joggs]

Who'd of thought,the Az low been the southerners nemesis lol.You couldn't make it up.

Still plenty of time for upgrades.

[coldcomfort]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Who'd of thought,the Az low been the southerners nemesis lol.You couldn't make it up.

Still plenty of time for upgrades.

Indeed, but the beast is only now stating to develop in the eastern Carib, so until it's formed and then moved for at least 48hrs I think all bets are off. Without question there are some very unwelcome looking perts within the 00 GFS ensembles, but there are also some bitterly cold ones, which perfectly reflects the uncertainty. So again yes there is plenty of time for upgrades, but it must be said there is also plenty of time for downgrades too....what isn't in any way disputable however is the fact we have interesting times ahead, which is not something we have been able to say for 6 weeks - at least not from a wintry weather perspective.

[snowblizzard]

12 minutes ago, joggs said:

Who'd of thought,the Az low been the southerners nemesis lol.You couldn't make it up.

Still plenty of time for upgrades.

And downgrades!

[coldcomfort]

2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

And downgrades!

Snap...

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

ECM overnight is a great run for potential - but for lots in the southern half of the UK it is the cold rain/ sleet run!

indeed, carole kirkwood said on bbc breakfast this morning that "cold was on the way, especially for northern areas whilst the south is nearer normal"

and on queue yesterdays 'epic' model runs are now history with nothing special being predicted. it will get cold, but theres no big freeze nothing to rival "47, 63" (as some over excited people commented yesterday).

this is why i dont see the point at all in getting all wound up over charts that boarder fi... if they are too good to be true - they probably are.

the noaa charts suggest a mean northwesterly flow for days 8 - 14. these are around 70% accurate (according to john holmes study ) whilst the gfs is around 30% accurate at this timescale.  so yesterdays gfs runs were out of kilter,

a mean upper flow from the northwest will not allow an easterly (for more then a few hours as a surface low passes to the south). we could get anything from a westerly to a northerly, so i read that as unsettled, mildest in the southwest, coldest in the northeast, but with colder weather prevailing over milder.

[chionomaniac]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

indeed, carole kirkwood said on bbc breakfast this morning that "cold was on the way, especially for northern areas whilst the south is nearer normal"

and on queue yesterdays 'epic' model runs are now history with nothing special being predicted. it will get cold, but theres no big freeze nothing to rival "47, 63" (as some over excited people commented yesterday).

this is why i dont see the point at all in getting all wound up over charts that boarder fi... if they are too good to be true - they probably are.

the noaa charts suggest a mean northwesterly flow for days 8 - 14. these are around 70% accurate (according to john holmes study ) whilst the gfs is around 30% accurate at this timescale.  so yesterdays gfs runs were out of kilter,

a mean upper flow from the northwest will not allow an easterly (for more then a few hours as a surface low passes to the south). we could get anything from a westerly to a northerly, so i read that as unsettled, mildest in the southwest, coldest in the northeast, but with colder weather prevailing over milder.

Yes, for a cold lover,  it is great to see a colder pattern emerge after the last 2-3 winters - but we are a far cry from snowmaggeddon for a lot of the country. I think it will be below average in the south out to days 6-7. Always a chance for a surprise and the potential for even colder still exists for after this period. Once -7/8C 850's reach the south coast  consistently and in a reliable timeframe then that is the time to think that something special may be on the cards.

Still , I'm pretty happy with the way things are panning out currently.

[knocker]

Indeed the EPS this morning is much as I posted earlier and as the evolution progresses it downgrades the Greenland high and backs the flow westerly with the trough aligned Baltic to Italy. This would give temps around average. The jet tends to split in the western Atlantic with one arm running north to descend on the UK and the other south into N. Africa. I'm mindful that the METO are still making the point that there is still much uncertainty in the evolution in this time frame.

[Ravelin]

For those of you who are still unsure if next week will be BBQ weather or Snowmageddon...

[supernova]

31 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

For those of you who are still unsure if next week will be BBQ weather or Snowmageddon...

Brilliant. Best of both worlds!

[Bristawl Si]

Meto still not playing (snow)ball.

Are their models indicating something different to what 'we' are seeing or are they just being cautious?

[ReindeerMarmalade]

57 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Meto still not playing (snow)ball.

Are their models indicating something different to what 'we' are seeing or are they just being cautious?

Don't worry too much about MetO  As much as I'd happily sell someone's grandmother for MetO to be screaming snowmageddon in every forecast, they have to be far more cautious than anyone on here. Until it's nailed on, they're in a no-win situation - get the forecast of significant snow wrong, in either direction, and there are repercussions. A bit of snow that barely settles is one thing, but anything that could cause disruption has to be carefully fed out to the public and (mainly local) government departments or chaos could ensue...and that applies if they forecast snow and none arrives as much as it applies to an 'unforecast' snow event. At this range it's prudent for MetO to give vague hints like 'wintry showers possible' or 'turning colder', leading people gently into the idea that snow might be on the cards while not guaranteeing anything that might mean schools have to close, gritters have to be sent out, and the country is cost money. Everyone becomes an IMBYist when snow is forecast, whether they're a snow-lover or not, because it might affect them personally so caution in official forecasts has to be paramount.

Of course, none of that means snow is guaranteed either and this could all go the way of Mr Tong, it's just worth bearing in mind MetO walks a knife egde and not shouting snow from the rooftops doesn't mean it's not going to happen  

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Meto still not playing (snow)ball.

Are their models indicating something different to what 'we' are seeing or are they just being cautious?

I decided last night to revisit the mod from 6 days ago when we lost our bbc spokesman as I had seen a couple of posts mention the loss but this must have passed me by.

However, it is laughable the tone of the posts just 6 days ago, mainly brought on by a post from the famed met models, writing January off. Personally, In hindsight to make such a post minutes before the midnight bells and now to be proved so wrong says it all. This is not getting at the poster who was just passing info on, but calling the meto out on their mid and long term thoughts.

They continue to get it wrong and very much play catch up these days. At least with storms there pretty much nailed and they can at least prove their worth by putting out warnings. EDIT: and now names

Jay Winn even said yesterday's, 'luckily' the cold will be short lived. Obvs they prefer the wet and windy weather as easier to forecast and warrants the taxes we pay them.

Think this is the main reason people use sites like this, to get a view of the weather which isn't necessarily on the doorstep and there is no agenda on here.

Seriously, if you get the chance read through the thread from 1st Jan (pg 6 onwards) and remember for future ref, things can and do change quickly in weather terms.

 

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by geordiekev

[knocker]

1 minute ago, geordiekev said:

I decided last night to revisit the mod from 6 days ago when we lost our bbc spokesman as I had seen a couple of posts mention the loss but this must have passed me by.

However, it is laughable the tone of the posts just 6 days ago, mainly brought on by a post from the famed met models, writing January off. Personally, In hindsight to make such a post minutes before the midnight bells and now to be proved so wrong says it all. This is not getting at the poster who was just passing info on, but calling the meto out on their mid and long term thoughts.

They continue to get it wrong and very much play catch up these days. At least with storms there pretty much nailed and they can at least prove their worth by putting out warnings.

Jay Winn even said yesterday's, 'luckily' the cold will be short lived. Obvs they prefer the wet and windy weather as easier to forecast and warrants the taxes we pay them.

Think this is the main reason people use sites like this, to get a view of the weather which isn't necessarily on the doorstep and there is no agenda on here.

The highlighted section is the most ridiculous and misleading comment I've read for many a while. And your assessment of the METO isn't much better. Do you actually have a nailed down solution the the complex evolution 8-15 days hence?

[geordiekev]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

The highlighted section is the most ridiculous and misleading comment I've read for many a while. And your assessment of the METO isn't much better. Do you actually have a nailed down solution the the complex evolution 8-15 days hence?

All I'm saying knocker is that the meto were very bullish writing January off with positive anomalies throughout, and only a few hours after this post, the models picked up on the current signals, but yet they still are bullish about not mentioning the possibilities that lie only a few days ahead.

To me that is a very unreliable service. Oh and I don't get paid millions to do so.

Edited January 7, 2016 by geordiekev

[AWD]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

The highlighted section is the most ridiculous and misleading comment I've read for many a while. And your assessment of the METO isn't much better. Do you actually have a nailed down solution the the complex evolution 8-15 days hence?

Hi Knocker.

 

You're one of the few on here  who calls it straight down the line with little bias.  (Although somewhat "flashy" with the red pens now and again).

Looking at the Ops out to T144 then the ens for the time beyond that I'm struggiling to find evidence to suggest anything other than normal winter fare IMBY.  Key word being IMBY.

Any snowfall conducive airmass remains FI stuff for now and although the hemispheric pattern could evolve into something more noteworthy in terms of cold further downtown the line, that's all ifs and buts at the moment.

For southern England, I would summarise as getting colder with night air frosts and slightly below average daytime maxima next week with any PPN more than likely to be wet rather than white at this stage.  The possibility of a more pronounced colder phase in the extended timeframe but very uncertain with a slightly greater chance of a small rise in temperatures favoured instead, although nothing classed as mild.

What do you think Knocker?

[Lampostwatcher]

Not been on here for a while as lack of snow for a while lol looking forward to some lamppost.   Watching next week