Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, SW Saltire said:

That isn't really model output discussion..,

but no, Jay Wynne (sp?) said 'hopefully it won't last long'... That is quite different to 'we think it won't last long'.

They will change their forecasts according to the models. If the models continue to upgrade, then their presentations will also.

i'd place faith in some very knowledgable members on here who called this a while back.

How long it lasts is unknown, so is who gets snow... But the BBC will always be more cautious to avoid creating alarm....

Anyway.... I avidly await the 12z!

This  response belongs in the winter moan and ramps thread but it is reply to a post here, I won't be upset when it disappears.

Perfectly reasonable post  but I have to laugh, when exactly did we become a nation of fearful toadies waiting for the nanny state to tell us everything will be alright and to let us know when and when not to run around like headless chickens and when to be very afraid?

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't we had Winter and snow in this country before political correctness? Did we all run around in a state of panic and alarm at the first mention of cold weather as though it were the zombie apocalypse?

It seems to me our good people endured years of bombing and world wars without panicking, what would our leaders tell us these days?

"There may be one ore two loud bangs but don't worry your little heads, stay in doors, we will look after you and tell you when it is all over."

 

I don't want tabloid like sensationalism from the BBC but I don't want propaganda and PC filtered garbage either, just for the love of god stop patronising us!

[Average Joe]

Mucka, I hear what you're saying, but rightly or wrongly the vast majority of the non-weather watching public have a preference for what I will term dry, useable weather.

Appreciate you're in the cold, snow loving group, but again, rightly or wrongly, snow falls cause disruption to daily lives/routines, whether that be in a major way, or just what others would term a relatively small inconvenience. So that's why when giving their particular forecasts, some of those presenting them will accentuate on the longevity of any potential spell in a way that isn't agreeable with most of the cold loving folks on here. 

[knocker]

45 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Members of forums posting opinions? Whatever next!

BBC weather presenting like the rest of the organisation has gone down hill - no room for preference or enthusiasm less it be seen as politically incorrect.

There are many good and talented people there but the organisation as a whole is thoroughly obnoxious these days.

There is a difference between having an opinion and being opinionated. Obstinate and conceited regarding the merit of one's own opinions aptly covers the latter.

[Mucka]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is a difference between having an opinion and being opinionated. Obstinate and conceited regarding the merit of one's own opinions aptly covers the latter.

Everyone has an ego Knocker, even you.

Sure conceit is an unpleasant trait but if one does not believe in the merit of ones own opinions then they are not worth stating are they?

Therefore, someone is only described as opinionated in the opinion of someone else and would not such arbitrary judgement on another also require a certain degree of conceit?

Glass houses and all that...

I understand we all get under each others skins from time to time and nothing wrong with disliking somebody, personal discernment and individuality are all good, but best to keep away from the personal stuff in the forums where possible as nothing good can come of it. 

GFS 12z rolling out, don't let your squirrel see!

Edited January 6, 2016 by Mucka

[Methuselah]

As Sir Winston Churchill was supposed to have said: Opinions are like ars**oles; everybody has one!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

As Sir Winston Churchill was supposed to have said: Opinions are like ars**oles; everybody has one!

Did he actually say that, though, or is it similar to the quote regarding a man who isn't a liberal at 20 having no compassion, but one of 40 who isn't conservative having no intelligence (i.e. said by someone else and falsely-attributed)?

Getting back O/T, I'm afraid I'm going to side with the Met Office on this one - a cold 2 or 3 days, then returning to around average is my instinct on this one.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Kiwi said:

Do BBC weather forecasters just not have any enthusiasm for the weather? Forecasts seem light on detail and ultra conservative so as not to offend or worry anyone.

We need more of this......  

 

of course they have enthusiasm for weather, ive no doubt some might like cold. but to refer to one as a 'mildie' (stupid term) just because he wasnt dancing about with hyperbolic fervor at the prospect of next weeks possible cold was a daft statement to make. 

[LeeSnowFan]

 

 

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Everyone has an ego Knocker, even you.

Sure conceit is an unpleasant trait but if one does not believe in the merit of ones own opinions then they are not worth stating are they?

Therefore, someone is only described as opinionated in the opinion of someone else and would not such arbitrary judgement on another also require a certain degree of conceit?

Glass houses and all that...

I understand we all get under each others skins from time to time and nothing wrong with disliking somebody, personal discernment and individuality are all good, but best to keep away from the personal stuff in the forums where possible as nothing good can come of it. 

GFS 12z rolling out, don't let your squirrel see!

I don't think that's a problem as I asked Sidney this morning whether he thought it would be a lengthy cold spell he snapped back, "nuts". I'm not sure whether it was a comment or a request.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

of course they have enthusiasm for weather, ive no doubt some might like cold. but to refer to one as a 'mildie' (stupid term) just because he wasnt dancing about with hyperbolic fervor at the prospect of next weeks possible cold was a daft statement to make. 

To be fair though, Rob, members have been discussing how much he appears to hate cold weather ever since I joined this forum!  I saw his forecast earlier, and, on top of expressing a desire that the cold shouldn't last too long, he described tomorrow's forecast maxima as "disappointing" in a context that made it clear that he wanted/thought the viewers wanted them to be higher.  This seemed rather strange to me as maxima tomorrow are supposed to around average, IIRC.  That's two references to what he wants (or thinks his viewers want) in a forecast that's supposed to be factual (explaining what is expected).

Edited January 6, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[weathergeek]

1 hour ago, Kiwi said:

Do BBC weather forecasters just not have any enthusiasm for the weather? Forecasts seem light on detail and ultra conservative so as not to offend or worry anyone.

We need more of this......  

 

That's bloody hilarious!!!  I would love to see this kind of enthusiasm on the BBC! I'd love them to do this just ONCE to see the British reaction hahaha!!x

[Daniel*]

In the local woodland the birds are chirping away like crazy - surely it is a sign?  

Oh boy...what a crackhead as much as I love his enthusiasm he should be more professional 

This one's funnier! 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[Relativistic]

The model thread is a wonderful place to be at the moment, I can't get away from it! It is moments like these that make it a great time to be a weather enthusiast, so much positivity about and prospects for cold are the best they have been in years. Long may it continue!

[Gord]

Well, this time last week, I was having a good discussion on here with a member about his prediction that January would be the stormiest and wettest on record on the south. Was a bold forecast at the time but now looking more unlikely. I have no less respect for that forecast now though because it's one forecast more than I would dare to make!

In science though, we learn just as much from the wrong predictions as we do from the correct ones.

Amazing how quickly things can turn. The start of January 2013 had similar discussions on here as well...(to be fair, so did January 2014 but the change never happened that year of course!)

Edited January 6, 2016 by Gord

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Dare I say it (my inner Steve Murr has been aroused) that today's GFS 12Z is just about as good a model run as I've ever seen!

Is it operable?

[fat chad]

would be great for my boy to see some snow that settled.... The last time he saw snow, it was about half an inch and started to melt my mid morning... My daughter on the other hand still remembers the snow from 2010... Happy days..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Despite the massive upgrades on GFS today, still need the Met Office to come on board and replace 'brief cold spell' with 'prolonged cold spell'!

[Gord]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Despite the massive upgrades on GFS today, still need the Met Office to come on board and replace 'brief cold spell' with 'prolonged cold spell'!

However, the Met Office forecast has been very carefully worded in it's current form. 

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

And just think, only last week people were being all melodramtic and whiny in here saying how winter was over and how they would be lucky to ever see snow again etc...

when it downgrades for there area they will still be whiny and not want anyone else to have snow lol

[Dancerwithwings]

16 minutes ago, Gord said:

However, the Met Office forecast has been very carefully worded in it's current form. 

   We all know where they stand (or sit) at this timeframe.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[mushymanrob]

38 minutes ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

The model thread is a wonderful place to be at the moment, I can't get away from it! It is moments like these that make it a great time to be a weather enthusiast, so much positivity about and prospects for cold are the best they have been in years. Long may it continue!

couldnt disagree more...

unless you have the time to sit there and catch all the latest posts , and enjoy the hyperbole, its hard to view, to find the sensible posts thatll inform you whats really likely likely to lie ahead.


there will be a lot of moaning and disappointment once the downgrades come - which is likely. (ill be pretty shocked IF the current gfs runs become reality).

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

couldnt disagree more...

unless you have the time to sit there and catch all the latest posts , and enjoy the hyperbole, its hard to view, to find the sensible posts thatll inform you whats really likely likely to lie ahead.


there will be a lot of moaning and disappointment once the downgrades come - which is likely. (ill be pretty shocked IF the current gfs runs become reality).

Come on, Rob - it's surely pleasing that so many are that excited.  I do agree with you regarding the GFS, though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

49 minutes ago, Gord said:

Well, this time last week, I was having a good discussion on here with a member about his prediction that January would be the stormiest and wettest on record on the south. Was a bold forecast at the time but now looking more unlikely. I have no less respect for that forecast now though because it's one forecast more than I would dare to make!

In science though, we learn just as much from the wrong predictions as we do from the correct ones.

Amazing how quickly things can turn. The start of January 2013 had similar discussions on here as well...(to be fair, so did January 2014 but the change never happened that year of course!)

 

hopefully Gordon, still not really out of FI yet though, but safe to say wettest Jan ever is off

[The PIT]

Hopefully the ECM will back the GFS and move away from the two day toppler time will tell. The good news is that the cold spell is moving forward if it was staying out at the same time frame past experience tells it would eventually disappear altogether. Pretty good agreement between ukmo and GFS at t144 fi land I know but it's there.  All eyes ECM.

[ReindeerMarmalade]

Must be an awful time to be a mild-lover on here. My deepest condolences.