Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[cyclonic happiness]

4 minutes ago, snow freak said:

i agree.  hardly any thunderstorms in our area last summer either and no real heat either considering it was supposedly one of the warmest summers on record.  all the excitement seems to have gone from the british weather unless you like lots of wind and rain that is.

We don't even get lots of wind and rain. We must only get around 1/3 of what goes on everywhere else.

Look at 2010, when everywhere around here got over 1 foot of snow, we got 1/2"!! and you drove 10 miles to Rugby and they had a foot, 10 miles towards Brum, 1 foot.   We seem to have been cursed for years and years.

I seriously do not believe that anywhere in the British isles, has less interesting weather than the lowland Midlands. We haven't even had a proper frost this year!!!! (well, and last)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

We don't even get lots of wind and rain. We must only get around 1/3 of what goes on everywhere else.

Look at 2010, when everywhere around here got over 1 foot of snow, we got 1/2"!! and you drove 10 miles to Rugby and they had a foot, 10 miles towards Brum, 1 foot.   We seem to have been cursed for years and years.

I seriously do not believe that anywhere in the British isles, has less interesting weather than the lowland Midlands. We haven't even had a proper frost this year!!!! (well, and last)

good about the wind and rain, that can do one, snow depths is about your elevation, areas around here do better also, Eccy, Cannock, Stone, telford,

[Evening thunder]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

.And don't tell me it's because we have the Atlantic next to us...back in December we had -25 uppers flooding well south of our latitude in the mid Atlantic so if it can happen there it can happen here!

Don't think I can post in the model thread due to being off topic but I'm not sure that's right.. Maybe in the West Atlantic or close to Greenland, but can't recall any charts that cold.
I'm surprised if you think we can get -25 uppers from the north? We have barely had -20 uppers in the UK (not sure if Jan 87 scraped it in Kent or not..), and even that came from the east not the north.. so I think the reason is related to the north Atlantic and it isn't as simple as it can happen here? Maybe if the North Atlantic Drift shuts down.

The sea temperature patterns could also go some way to explaining it.. much lower SST's in much closer proximity there, and also if Greenland came down to nearly the latitude of Scotland along the Greenwich Meridian and not 45 degrees west perhaps we could get such uppers.

I have just looked through the Meteociel archive for December and the coldest looking charts in the Western-Central Atlantic are..

Even the -20 line only just enters the North Atlantic.. and the -15 line is still in quite close proximity to continental Canada, much closer than we are to any continental land mass in that direction.  I guess we had similar in 1987: If only the Earth spun the other way eh?


Sorry.. just don't want us to seem even more unlucky than we already are! lol

[Summer of 95]

Isn't the whole point of uppers that they are not modified by local effects such as SSTs? I thought the SSTs just changed the weather the uppers brought (e.g. easterlies crossing the North Sea, cold uppers mean snow, mild ones muck while both are sunny in Europe) but didn't change the 850hpa temp itself? It's certainly remarkable how often you see tongues of green/yellow extending over Britain while the mid-Atlantic and central Europe are blue on the 850s charts. It does seem like a curse, something (jet stream?) seems to prevent the cold uppers reaching us these days.

I've seen -15s over the Mediterranean, that's warmer than the sea around Britain and doesn't seem to warm the uppers.

[Timmytour]

3 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

My wife used the No.1 on me last nite; not that i've got much hair these days.

And i'm a Spurs follower.

Anyway model runs still show colder to come. If one has faith in GP and Tamara the real cold action will be last third of Jan and into early Feb, so maybe next week is just a 'taster'.

I think Spurs might finish 2nd this season and win the Europa Cup   The last time we finished second and won a European trophy was in 1963 following what seemed to have been a nippy January and February!!!

History to repeat itself? 

[JOPRO]

Awful charts this morning, if you like mike crap that is!!!

[mushymanrob]

well.... a huge shift towards a much lengthier cold spell has emerged overnight, the current gfs is a cold lovers dream! but of course it showed a bartlett the other day so its not worth getting carried away.

interestingly the noaa anomaly charts support a lengthier spell IF the azores high plays ball, its exact position shape and orientation will determine whether it keeps us in the cold or allows atlantic systems over its northern flank to keep us unsettled.

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

well.... a huge shift towards a much lengthier cold spell has emerged overnight, the current gfs is a cold lovers dream! but of course it showed a bartlett the other day so its not worth getting carried away.

interestingly the noaa anomaly charts support a lengthier spell IF the azores high plays ball, its exact position shape and orientation will determine whether it keeps us in the cold or allows atlantic systems over its northern flank to keep us unsettled.

Us coldies need this!! it's been a long time bring on the snowwwwwww

[mushymanrob]

impossible to get any sense on the md thread unless you have a lot of time on your hands ...

[coldcomfort]

Looking like a pretty unusual set up emerging, with an LP expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean and drift NE towards the Azores by the middle of next week. I think we need to wait and see firstly IF it develops and begins to move as predicted, but if it does come to rest close to the Azores it should prop up heights over Iceland/Greenland and give us the chance of a decent cold shot. High stakes game for sure which could involve a possible jackpot, or at least one that would seem very much like a jackpot given what we have had to endure so far the Autumn.....sorry, just can't bring myself to call it winter

[chionomaniac]

06Z GFS -WAA into Greenland

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Just needed a good belly laugh that's all.

 

 

[Ravelin]

GFS 06Z run is easily the best run of the season for cold, possibly the best run for years!

Must...try...not...to...get...too...excited... (tries not to hyperventilate)

 

P.S. For goodness sake no one tell the usual suspects in the newspaper industry or it'll be jinxed in no time.

[Yarmy]

19 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Looking like a pretty unusual set up emerging, with an LP expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean and drift NE towards the Azores by the middle of next week. I think we need to wait and see firstly IF it develops and begins to move as predicted, but if it does come to rest close to the Azores it should prop up heights over Iceland/Greenland and give us the chance of a decent cold shot. High stakes game for sure which could involve a possible jackpot, or at least one that would seem very much like a jackpot given what we have had to endure so far the Autumn.....sorry, just can't bring myself to call it winter

Salutary advice given what happened with the modelling of Hurricane Joaquin earlier in the year.  

[joggs]

Anybody else having trouble trying to log on to the mo site?

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

Anybody else having trouble trying to log on to the mo site?

yes

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Anybody else having trouble trying to log on to the mo site?

Works fine for me

[Yarmy]

6 minutes ago, joggs said:

Anybody else having trouble trying to log on to the mo site?

Main page is up, but my local links aren't working, e.g.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/u127sby66

Edit: Internal Server Error

Edited January 6, 2016 by Yarmy

[cobbett]

Excellent 06z but now expect the downgrades to start appearing ! Always seems to  happen and we'll end up with a somewhat watered down event. The ensembles though are looking impressive so fingers crossed

[ReindeerMarmalade]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

impossible to get any sense on the md thread unless you have a lot of time on your hands ...

Of all the days to say this, I'd've thought the message on the mod thread was resoundingly clear! 

Whether it verifies is another kettle of dogs entirely.

[mushymanrob]

yesterday the models suggested the cold snap would be a brief affair , lasting at best 3-4 days.

today the models have flipped and suggest something much longer and deeper...

we are a week away from 'the event' . 

believe todays charts at your peril.... dont dismiss them, just dont take them (especially the gfs) as a cert.

[knocker]

Arctic infested with CTDs (coherent tropopause disturbances) -- spread into middle-latitudes w/very cold air.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by chionomaniac
to display tweet

[Rammie]

Re the cold for next week. People talking about - 10. If that's night time low, surely that's not unusual for January? 

[karlos1983]

Can anyone help me, we seem to be a man down in the Mod Thread..... Calling CrewCold, hello hello wherever you are MIA since predictions of absolutely no chance of heights linking with Greenland. I'm sure Crew is going to be back in the Mod thread tonight and admitting he was perhaps a little to hasty in his dismissal........ TBC

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Can anyone help me, we seem to be a man down in the Mod Thread..... Calling CrewCold, hello hello wherever you are MIA since predictions of absolutely no chance of heights linking with Greenland. I'm sure Crew is going to be back in the Mod thread tonight and admitting he was perhaps a little to hasty in his dismissal........ TBC

Indeed, I got my head snipped off. 

Man cannot compete with Mother Nature.

[Daniel*]

41 minutes ago, Rammie said:

Re the cold for next week. People talking about - 10. If that's night time low, surely that's not unusual for January? 

It is unusual outside of the Highlands 

only very cold air/ complemented by slack flow little to no wind, clear skies, to more widespread parts of the country, can give those sort of temperatures. Snow cover also helps.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*