Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Bristawl Si]

So despite some model runs hinting at a switch from the East or NE the Meto are having none of it.

Will there be a dramatic switch in their outlook forecasts OR

Are the models leading everyone up the garden path?

Worth remembering that a cold or v cold Scandinavia and Eastern Europe is the default for Winter. And in most Winters it stays there....only occasionally does the UK experience Easterly-sourced cold.

[Liam J]

Ian F said yesterday that an easterly hasn't been totally discounted by the Met Office but it's a minority signal at present, public forecasts go with the general consensus and not the minority signal... It may gain ground and become a stronger signal over the coming days but until there's a stronger signal with cross model agreement then the Met will not change their further outlook.... 

Edited December 27, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Currently 2c at Inverness and 15c at London City Airport and about 5 other stations across Southern England are showing 15c, 13-14c more widely. 

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I've just seen a bee. It's late December and I've just seen a bee outside...

Hardly suprising scott given the mild Autmn and super mild winter.

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Currently 2c at Inverness and 15c at London City Airport and about 5 other stations across Southern England are showing 15c, 13-14c more widely. 

It's been hovering around 14c here. Despite the cloud and wind i've had windows open. CH didnt click on yday eve or this morn - bonkers!

[knocker]

1600

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

So despite some model runs hinting at a switch from the East or NE the Meto are having none of it.

Will there be a dramatic switch in their outlook forecasts OR

Are the models leading everyone up the garden path?

Worth remembering that a cold or v cold Scandinavia and Eastern Europe is the default for Winter. And in most Winters it stays there....only occasionally does the UK experience Easterly-sourced cold.

i dont think theres a best from the east in the offing, but going off the noaa charts there could be some westward progress of the european cold, at least enough to lower temps to around/below average with a threat of something wintry. but its not looking like theres anything prolonged, just abit messy for a few days as we switch from cold/mild

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont think theres a best from the east in the offing, but going off the noaa charts there could be some westward progress of the european cold, at least enough to lower temps to around/below average with a threat of something wintry. but its not looking like theres anything prolonged, just abit messy for a few days as we switch from cold/mild

I'm still going for one of the wettest January's on record, this setup to me looks shockingly wet, the high is not far enough west, lows just stalling over uk, dumping loads of rain, I will miss the dry at times 14°C type weather of the last 8 weeks (south of course)

[78/79]

I hope for the sake of those poor devils in Cumberland that you're wrong , pretty scant consolation when your're losing all your're possessions , and live in a house which is uninhabitable and consequently uninsurable that it's 15 degrees outside.

I don't recall  any of the cold winter that I have experienced causing this sort  of misery

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Yes Rob, even my "winter's over" pessemism is wavering.  It would be nice, from a selfish IMBY point of view, just to get rid of this excessive mildness; of course, this pales into insignificance against the desperate need for the NW to have a chance to dry off.

By the sounds of it, the models (ECM in particular) are backing-away from cold.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Typical weather for January, NH profile may look good, but looking out of window, same old weather with water up to your knees for the very unlucky ones

Edited December 27, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I'm getting really annoyed at all the coldies in the MOD thread wanting setups which, though they may give a chance of snow, would be much more likely to cause more flooding.  I want to see mild, if not warm, dry anticyclonic weather from now until spring for the sake of those affected - I'm not interested in snow this winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm getting really annoyed at all the coldies in the MOD thread wanting setups which, though they may give a chance of snow, would be much more likely to cause more flooding.  I want to see mild, if not warm, dry anticyclonic weather from now until spring for the sake of those affected - I'm not interested in snow this winter.

 

Agree with first bit, think we are the only ones who think these charts scream rain and flooding, bring back the 14C temps and setups we've just had! as we won't see anticyclonic weather, this setup being modeled is worse for flooded areas, not as warm for the mop up

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM run is an absolute stonker for Northern Britain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    YEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

 

Feet on the floor but but even if it fails this time the building blocks are there for a Trough at some point to elongate and just sit there giving 50cm of snow on its Northern flank.

[knocker]

Suffering Succotash.....................where did I put that blocking high?

[cheese]

Hope the GFS is wrong in FI.. shows loads more rain for areas that do not need it. The families affected need some respite to get their lives back to normal. That might mean knocker's daffodils won't start sprouting, but I'm sure he'll live.

Edited December 27, 2015 by cheese

[Costa Del Fal]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

1600

If ever the there was a north south weather line this chart pretty much defines it. The south (south of about Manchester) relishing the milder air and the much cooler weather always north of here and always staying there.

[cheese]

^^ you're welcome to it. A beautiful sunny day here, with deep blue skies. The flood water was actually strangely beautiful.. lol.

[Weather-history]

53 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Typical chart for January, NH profile may look good, but looking out of window, same old weather with water up to your knees for the very unlucky ones

 

Edited December 27, 2015 by Weather-history

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Suppose I really meant the weather and the look out of my window WH, NH profile means nothing, when rain is falling just as it's been doing

[78/79]

I reckon your perspective on the weather to a certain extent depends on your location, in-so-far as if you live in the S/E or the East, then rain isn't so problematic, however if you live in the S/W or N/W then it gets to a point where you could'nt  give a toss whether it's mild or not just so long as it's dry.

[knocker]

I think a little quiet reflection is sometimes required away from the intermittent frenzy of the other thread

Sunday and Monday will see a respite from the stormy conditions for most of us, with a good deal of dry, mild weather and some sunshine around. Rain is expected in south-west England and south Wales on Monday afternoon and north Wales and north-west England in the evening, however amounts of rain will be much lower than on Boxing Day.

Andy Page, Met Office Chief Meteorologist, said: "We expect stormy conditions to return midweek, and have already issued National Severe Weather Warnings for gales on Tuesday and heavy rain on Wednesday, as an explosively deepening area of low pressure passes to the northwest of the UK

"Everyone should be aware of the potential for disruption in places from further flooding and the impacts of the gales to transport, especially in areas such as south-west Scotland where Amber 'be prepared' warnings are in place.

"The weather is particularly unsettled at the moment and we advise everyone to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and warnings and find out what to do in severe weather so they can plan ahead for the expected weather before it arrives."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/stormy-end-to-december

[egret]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

I think a little quiet reflection is sometimes required away from the intermittent frenzy of the other thread

Sunday and Monday will see a respite from the stormy conditions for most of us, with a good deal of dry, mild weather and some sunshine around. Rain is expected in south-west England and south Wales on Monday afternoon and north Wales and north-west England in the evening, however amounts of rain will be much lower than on Boxing Day.

Andy Page, Met Office Chief Meteorologist, said: "We expect stormy conditions to return midweek, and have already issued National Severe Weather Warnings for gales on Tuesday and heavy rain on Wednesday, as an explosively deepening area of low pressure passes to the northwest of the UK

"Everyone should be aware of the potential for disruption in places from further flooding and the impacts of the gales to transport, especially in areas such as south-west Scotland where Amber 'be prepared' warnings are in place.

"The weather is particularly unsettled at the moment and we advise everyone to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and warnings and find out what to do in severe weather so they can plan ahead for the expected weather before it arrives."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/stormy-end-to-december

Yes you know its getting bad when we have to take sanctuary in here for a bit of peace and quiet!

[cheese]

Even if it isn't cold here, Scandi looks set to enter the freezer. Would be a major shock given record mildness in December.

Edited December 27, 2015 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Shorts out! 12C at 6am, least we're keeping it mild, 00Z looked worse with 6C at same time