Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[mushymanrob]

i feel theres too much unnecessary hot air being produced (over understandable desperation) prematurely, on the md thread.

the ops might well be off on a fantasy cold prediction, but until the anomaly charts agree....and they dont... there will be no southerly tracking jet and cold easterly.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

41 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i feel theres too much unnecessary hot air being produced (over understandable desperation) prematurely, on the md thread.

the ops might well be off on a fantasy cold prediction, but until the anomaly charts agree....and they dont... there will be no southerly tracking jet and cold easterly.

there will be a southerly tracking jet, but you are right with no easterly, still going for one of the wettest January's on record for the South, very snowy for Scotland

[mushymanrob]

38 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

there will be a southerly tracking jet, but you are right with no easterly, still going for one of the wettest January's on record for the South, very snowy for Scotland

could well be, id expect off the current 8-14 day 500mb chart , southerly tracking lows, but they fail to break through to southern europe, stalling over the uk and producing the southern wet, northern snow.

of course my amateur interpretation might well be incorrect and more likely the predictive charts might change. 8 - 14 days is a very long way out to be certain of anything - but are more accurate for the general synoptic pattern at that range then the ops are.

comparing the 6-10 day chart with the 8-14 day chart suggests a weakening of the eastern anticyclone, with it drifting further away. if the 8-14 day chart amplified (or at least kept) the eastern high then that to me would suggest a lengthier period of uncertainty, battleground, threat, of some advected cold (the forming of the eastern high) is expected to draw down into eastern europe.

as long as theres a mid - upper lattitude high in the next 2 (arguably longer) months then theres always potential for something cold to evolve.

tea break over - back to cooking!

[stewfox]

On 12/24/2015 at 2:22 PM, stainesbloke said:

In Philadelphia with work and it's 21C here at 9am! Madness. Some torrential rain and even a thunderstorm overnight! Family near New York reporting 20C there currently. No sign of cold here either, does feel very strange and a little bit ominous.

I'm sure New York will get 2 feet of snow come January, supporting graph attached

 

.

 

 

[bazookabob]

Santa has brought me good omens for the rest of winter...

 

[stewfox]

12 minutes ago, bazookabob said:

Santa has brought me good omens for the rest of winter...

 

Sleet   ??

[bazookabob]

1 minute ago, stewfox said:

Sleet   ??

The way this winter's going, I'll take it lol! 

[The PIT]

Scandi high shown in the run but to too far east so we're stuck in the continuing mild stuff. Lot's of  hopecasting in the model thread but sadly mild with the occasional average thrown in is for the foreseeable future is reality.

[Paul White.]

Wow it is as bad as next door in here. Moaning about the meto not being onboard cold not showing on any charts (what)!!!!!! I just want to say what is the point of people visiting and contributing to this site if they are constantly banging on about the met office being or not being on board. They may as well download the met office app and look at it daily. Oh may I refer people to the ecm op run 12z 168hr chart cold backing west.

 

rant over.

 

merry Christmas 

[Peter H]

Well, those fantasy models at the end of yesterday evening and this mornings runs kept us going for about 12 hours or so.

Now back to the normal south westerly stuff.

Who makes these things up ?

[The PIT]

Well at the moment many are convinced the Deep FI chart on the ECM is going to happen. Nice eye candy now show the same chart at T96 and I may start to believe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS FI is being miserable, it's Xmas! cum on models give us cheer, ECM says Merry Xmas, back to work in snow boots, but reality is GFS probably correct showing typical early Jan weather

If I am on board with cold, then snowfest it is, and that's certainly not yet

Edited December 25, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[feb1991blizzard]

Better stop going off topic in other Thread now, sorry mods but its xmas - anyway, has there ever been a forum meltdown on xmas day like this before, baring in mind a powerhouse Easterly is still pretty strong odds against still at the moment, just wondering, even in 2010 when there was a *Possible* snow event for boxing day plus last year, I don't remember a meltdown on this scale before - a real good buzz though none the less.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Better stop going off topic in other Thread now, sorry mods but its xmas - anyway, has there ever been a forum meltdown on xmas day like this before, baring in mind a powerhouse Easterly is still pretty strong odds against still at the moment, just wondering, even in 2010 when there was a *Possible* snow event for boxing day plus last year, I don't remember a meltdown on this scale before - a real good buzz though none the less.

agree, what makes forum exciting and much better, even though we all know the easterly will fail, I don't tend to post in model thread, feel my posts about westerlies/mild air dominating are inappropriate

Edited December 25, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree, what makes forum exciting and much better, we all know the easterly will fail, I don't tend to post in model thread, feel my posts about westerlies/mild air dominating are inappropriate

I get excited a little bit but only fully when theres some kind of significant Strat warming, you can just about scrape a battleground sometimes without but that's usually late Feb, not mid winter

[mezzacyclone]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I get excited a little bit but only fully when theres some kind of significant Strat warming, you can just about scrape a battleground sometimes without but that's usually late Feb, not mid winter

Ya never know, the culmination of cohens support of an imminent disrupted PV & EN steadfast in its strong + position could improve our chances of finally returning to those east/west battlefields winters past late 70's early 80's?

Just for Interest, I cant recall the winter of dec97 - mar98 in relation to the last (may 97 to dec 97 +1.7 avg) strongest EN event & subsequent winter? 

[snowray]

You just gotta love them B-EASTERLY charts that turn up regularly every year and get pushed further into FI, and end up effecting the usual places with heavy snow and blizzards like Turkey, Greece, Southern Italy and then the Near East around Syria/Israel. 

Such a tease....

Edited December 25, 2015 by snowray

[kelal]

Just taken my son home and the temperature on the car thermometer was an unbelievable 14C. at midnight! It feels more like a summer night than a mid-winter night. For a coldie like me this is pretty desperate. Things have got to change - haven't they??

Happy New Year to you all,

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree, what makes forum exciting and much better, even though we all know the easterly will fail, I don't tend to post in model thread, feel my posts about westerlies/mild air dominating are inappropriate

see, i dont get this. and it highlights the old argument about what the md thread is for - is it a place for hopecasting and trying to spot the coldest evolution , getting all excited about something you dont think will happen? or a place to post realistic accounts about what the models are showing regardless of personal taste?

i cannot see the point at all in getting excited about " we all know the easterly will fail" whilst proclaiming that " westerlies/mild air dominating are inappropriate" .... no, no they are not "inappropriate" IF thats what the models are showing.

looking at the noaa 500bm anomaly charts, its not the east you need to be looking towards for cold, but the west, as this mornings charts (ok yesterday evenings) suggest the mean upper trough to our west which has been driving our mild weather is shifting eastwards, with the return of the azores high which will cut off this southerwesterly sourced airflow. i have not yet seen this mornings ops - but if they suggest the end to this very mild flow, with a lot of cool pm sourced air , from the north (crossing the uk from the western quadrant) , then they are the charts to be expected to become nearer what we get.

the anomaly charts still do not suggest a building scandi high that lasts and gives us an easterly (at least for more then 2 days tops).

so the unsettled atlantic train continues, but cool/average temps instead of very mild into mid january.

 

[markyo]

Shorts on for walk to shops...boxing day!!! This pattern has to change,wildlife could be in big trouble if it doesn't. Least i've still not had the heating on this winter so far so thats a positive!

[Summer of 95]

15C at 9.30am in late December. Absolutely insane, even in 2013/14 I remember a good frost on Boxing morning.

First 15C this year was on 9th Jan, latest so far 26th Dec, there really have been no seasons in 2015.

[The PIT]

36 minutes ago, markyo said:

Shorts on for walk to shops...boxing day!!! This pattern has to change,wildlife could be in big trouble if it doesn't. Least i've still not had the heating on this winter so far so thats a positive!

Wildlife will be fine best thing for them right now. Plenty of food around fat reserves will be fine. The only thing that may cause a problem maybe early lambing and if we get a  cold snap.

Anyway I'll get the ropes out for those who got carried away in the MD thread with nailed on easterlies at T1000 billion. A clear cold outlier but it sucked many in. The only trend I see at the moment is back to more normal temperatures and less of the early spring type weather. Even that is in FI so could well be turned into just above average by the time we get there. Even that will be an improvement.

[Carl46Wrexham]

I'll see you guys on March 1st 2016. I have had it with this wretched season. It's doing its utmost to be even worse than the vile monstrosity that was the non winter of 2013/14. So many people are suffering now it's beyond ridiculous. It's getting to the point now where my life long enthusiasm for the weather is being  crushed to death the longer the misery goes on for so many.

No more forecast watching, no more model watching until March. Enough is enough. Adios.

[markyo]

52 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Wildlife will be fine best thing for them right now. Plenty of food around fat reserves will be fine. The only thing that may cause a problem maybe early lambing and if we get a  cold snap.

Anyway I'll get the ropes out for those who got carried away in the MD thread with nailed on easterlies at T1000 billion. A clear cold outlier but it sucked many in. The only trend I see at the moment is back to more normal temperatures and less of the early spring type weather. Even that is in FI so could well be turned into just above average by the time we get there. Even that will be an improvement.

Disagree about the wildlife,nature needs a balance to work properly,this mild weather is throwing that balance out,its much more complicated than i think any of us really understand. We do need the frost and colder conditions,that is a fact.

[mushymanrob]

2 minutes ago, markyo said:

Disagree about the wildlife,nature needs a balance to work properly,this mild weather is throwing that balance out,its much more complicated than i think any of us really understand. We do need the frost and colder conditions,that is a fact.

youre right, it is complicated, and theres no one big natural law that encompasses everything in nature, because different things need different conditions in which to thrive.

a mild winter isnt a disaster for everything, neither is an overly cold one. some things can survive the cold better then others whilst some thrive in the milder conditions.

the balance though, isnt needed in every winter but over a period of several winters. the mixture between mild/cold dry/wet over a decade or so is what balances nature - so numbers of differing species will rise and decline annually but over a period of time be relatively stable.