Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

 

It doesn't quite work like for North Atlantic low pressures.
The pressure gradients and central pressures vary massively. The UK has experienced pressures below 950mb, and as low as the 20's before. 
Don't forget, those are wind speeds as well, unlikely that the UK would even see 95mph sustained winds.

In 2011/2012 we had a couple of storms that certainly had gusts 95 -100mph  but probably 80mph+ sustained. In one of them a 5 foot high double glazed window was actually blown in the common area of the place I was living in at that time. It landed (and shattered) outside my front door. That was a bit of a surprise at 07:30 in the morning 

The other time I came out of a meeting at work to find most people gone and several phone messages and emails telling me to leave and go home straight away. The amount of debris flying around makes them fairly hazardous.

Over the last 20 years we've had similar storms 6 or 7 times.

Now I have a 100 foot high oak tree only 30-40 feet from the house.

Given my luck previously with extreme weather.....

 

[jethro]

5 hours ago, cheese said:

Bizarre..

Not really, it's a winter flowering cherry.

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, jethro said:

Not really, it's a winter flowering cherry.

I've never seen them before. Didn't even know such a thing existed.

Edited December 24, 2015 by cheese

[The Enforcer]

21 minutes ago, jethro said:

Not really, it's a winter flowering cherry.

Why is it flowering now? We haven't had any winter conditions yet.

[hooch5]

bored waiting for Santa to bring some snow, so started reading about the 1946-7 winter, interesting how December started very similar  to this one, here's an extract describing the month;The strangest thing about 1947, was the first part of the winter was very mild, with only 2 failed cold spells...The weather in fact, turned unseasonably mild for a time. On the 15th January, the temperature in Leeming, North Yorkshire, didn't fall below 11.7c, and rose to 14c the next day in parts of Norfolk, Herefordshire, and Flintshire. This soon changed. I wonder if history is repeating itself?

[Nick L]

16 minutes ago, hooch5 said:

bored waiting for Santa to bring some snow, so started reading about the 1946-7 winter, interesting how December started very similar  to this one, here's an extract describing the month;The strangest thing about 1947, was the first part of the winter was very mild, with only 2 failed cold spells...The weather in fact, turned unseasonably mild for a time. On the 15th January, the temperature in Leeming, North Yorkshire, didn't fall below 11.7c, and rose to 14c the next day in parts of Norfolk, Herefordshire, and Flintshire. This soon changed. I wonder if history is repeating itself?

Dec 1946 had a CET of 3.1c, this December is looking likely to push double figures.

It's a bit of a myth that 46-47 started really mild.

Edited December 24, 2015 by Nick L

[knocker]

As we already know it's not looking that clever in the NW on Saturday.

[knocker]

The GEFs is still insisting on pushing the Alaskan ridge over the Pole (contrary to the ecm) but more to the point maintains the vortex over N. Canada. Thus the UK remaining in a zonal westerly regime bringing periods of unsettled weather with temps around average. There is nothing obvious to suggest that this will not continue.

Regarding the PNA the last EC32 update (the next due tonight) had it going positive the first week in Jan before reverting to a more or less neutral position.

Edited December 24, 2015 by knocker

[cyclonic happiness]

I wish that the GFS hadn't have been upgraded. I know it's better for forecasting, but it has killed off one of the most vibrant and fun parts of this forum.

We all love to mull over charts in FI (regardless of what you say, you know you do it! :-D) to see phantom easterlies, or raging blizzards and minus ten 850s, but now we just have the monotony that is the British weather.

I used to love seeing all the crap in FI, I'd go to work with a spring in my step after seeing the latest charts, and imagining all the lovely cold and icey days that could go along with it.

 

I don't want to see the truth, I want FI to lie through its teeth and give me my phantom easterly!!!   ><

[I remember Atlantic 252]

realistic model runs on 00Z's today, can see them coming off, Zonal all the way, the setup becoming (if not already become) more common in the christmas pudding

[Gustywind]

Yeah it's great that with advances in technology and understanding we can now forecast with reasonable accuracy some way in advance, but it does kill the fun aspect. Less uncertainty = less fun!

Back in the 80s when I was growing up and snowfall was a reasonably common occurrence in winter, the forecasts were invariably mixed in terms of accuracy! And that was just for a day or two ahead! I remember a large surprise snowfall one day which the Beeb afterwards put down to a front which had already crossed the UK doing a 180 and coming back over the country dropping a load more snow! I can't imagine a similar scenario now.

To be honest though the bigger killer of winter model watching is the increasing mildness and rainfall we see year after year. After the blip of 2009-13 when winters went back to being winters again, we appear to have reverted back to the almost never ending mild dross we saw from 1988-2008 (bar the odd blip such as Feb91). I fear with global warming snowfall is set to be a thing of the past for kids growing up now.

The weather seems less volatile also with patterns lasting weeks or months, e.g winter 2013-14.

[iand61]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

As we already know it's not looking that clever in the NW on Saturday.

interestingly, that ties in with the BBC graphics which both show a slight southerly shift with the heaviest and most widespread of the rain now across the Yorkshire Dales and South Pennines with Cumbria looking at something less intense.

not that it makes much difference to the issues facing Cumbria in that even a modest fall over the Lakeland mountains will cause rivers to quickly rise and overtop defences.

if it comes off as shown though, flooding may once again become a problem in Lancashire and Yorkshire as the water on the Pennines and Dales heads down the river systems.

Still time of changes but it's certainly not looking good though.

[knocker]

39 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

 

We all love to mull over charts in FI (regardless of what you say, you know you do it! :-D) to see phantom easterlies, or raging blizzards and minus ten 850s, but now we just have the monotony that is the British weather.

I used to love seeing all the crap in FI, I'd go to work with a spring in my step after seeing the latest charts, and imagining all the lovely cold and icey days that could go along with it.

 

I don't want to see the truth, I want FI to lie through its teeth and give me my phantom easterly!!!   ><

Scandinavian trough brings cold plunge over the UK with probability of blizzards as the secondary feature swoops SE. Severe disruption likely and an emergency meeting of Cobra is planned.

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

No posts in the main model thread in over six hours,  things must be bad.

Knocker, how come you don't post their anymore? 

[jethro]

8 hours ago, cheese said:

I've never seen them before. Didn't even know such a thing existed.

They get people every year. You've got to be a gardening geek to know really, expectations of most people is to see tree blossom in the Spring, goes against instinct to see it in December so most people when they see it think 'blimey, that's early, what's going on?'.

[jethro]

8 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

Why is it flowering now? We haven't had any winter conditions yet.

Temperature doesn't make much difference to winter flowering things, they're governed by length of day light levels. Take Poinsettia as an example.....to get the bright red bracts they need exacting conditions of 12 hours daylight&12 hours complete dark. If you put them in a warm room, put a box over them to get the complete dark period you'll get exactly the same result as you would if you put them in a cold room with a box over them-might make a day or two difference, but that's all.

Spring flowering things can be influenced by temperature, hence Knocker's Daffodils. However, I'd urge lots of caution on that score as different varieties have different flowering times and it's perfectly normal to have some flowering very early.

Down here I've got Roses still in bloom, no frost to stop them but the mildness hasn't overcome the length of day governed Snowdrops, they're just beginning to peek through the ground.

 

Today is positively vile, about as un-Christmassy as it's possible to get.

[JOPRO]

Good news coldies some of the news papers are running with the headline "washout winter", based on their past efforts at long range forcasts I suggest we prepare for for a bitterly cold dry period in the new year!!!

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, jethro said:

Spring flowering things can be influenced by temperature, hence Knocker's Daffodils. However, I'd urge lots of caution on that score as different varieties have different flowering times and it's perfectly normal to have some flowering very early.

Down here I've got Roses still in bloom, no frost to stop them but the mildness hasn't overcome the length of day governed Snowdrops, they're just beginning to peek through the ground.

Most plants in the garden have either retained their foliage or are showing new growth. What's going to happen here is that they will start to emerge early then there will be one token late frost that will damage them irreparably.

[The Enforcer]

3 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I don't want to see the truth, I want FI to lie through its teeth and give me my phantom easterly!!!   ><

By your command:

 

[Buzz]

1 hour ago, The Enforcer said:

Most plants in the garden have either retained their foliage or are showing new growth. What's going to happen here is that they will start to emerge early then there will be one token late frost that will damage them irreparably.

 

Not irreperably - the new growth will be killed off but new buds will appear in milder/warmer weather and you'll get even more growth as a result. Think of it as nature doing a bit of pruning.

For example, I have a large Hydrangea bush in my garden - a few winters ago the weather was pretty mild for some times and new buds and growth had formed. We then had some really severe frosts lasting for over a week, the buds turned black and fell off and I just assumed that the bush was dying. In the Spring new buds formed and during the Summer months loads of new growth formed - it's now bushier than ever.

Edited December 24, 2015 by Buzz

[jethro]

When it's peeing down outside on Christmas Eve, there's Roses still in bloom, the grass is still growing and every bone in your body is craving frost and snow, there's only one thing to do.....make your own fantasy come true in miniature. There's now edible glitter and sparkle all over the kitchen, Jack Frost paid a visit and I'm not entirely convinced I'll clean it all up......

 

Merry Christmas everyone!

[cyclonic happiness]

5 hours ago, knocker said:

Scandinavian trough brings cold plunge over the UK with probability of blizzards as the secondary feature swoops SE. Severe disruption likely and an emergency meeting of Cobra is planned.

 

This is more like it :-D   ^^^^

[cyclonic happiness]

4 hours ago, jethro said:

Temperature doesn't make much difference to winter flowering things, they're governed by length of day light levels. Take Poinsettia as an example.....to get the bright red bracts they need exacting conditions of 12 hours daylight&12 hours complete dark. If you put them in a warm room, put a box over them to get the complete dark period you'll get exactly the same result as you would if you put them in a cold room with a box over them-might make a day or two difference, but that's all.

Spring flowering things can be influenced by temperature, hence Knocker's Daffodils. However, I'd urge lots of caution on that score as different varieties have different flowering times and it's perfectly normal to have some flowering very early.

Down here I've got Roses still in bloom, no frost to stop them but the mildness hasn't overcome the length of day governed Snowdrops, they're just beginning to peek through the ground.

 

Today is positively vile, about as un-Christmassy as it's possible to get.

I have noticed that my Witch-hazel is only just coming into flower now. Some years it's been over by now. I think they hang back as if they know worse weather is to come.

 

I'm in the same trade as you Jethro, it's very, very weird atm, and the amounts of pests and diseases around this winter, is phenomenal.

Only last week we had an entire bed of ornamental brassicas  ravaged by cabbage white butterfly caterpillars, and they were swarming!

More slugs and snails than ever, more botrytis and blackspot.  It's horrible, I'm praying for frost!

[Lauren]

Glad it's not just us with a lack of wintry weather. I see New York today is in the high teens!

[MP-R]

A very appropriate day for two heavy hail showers to rattle through here with a bitter wind and sunshine between.