Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

So basically sh#te then in terms of cold and snow.

Snow - yes, cold - no. Frost = cold.

[MPG]

38 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How do you know that?  It could even be not as cold as March 2013 but far snowier. 

 

Because this year we have a very strong El Nino driving everything, so there's no chance of another March 2013 in March 2016.

And it needs to be 'as cold' otherwise any snow will just disappear in March sunshine.

Edited December 23, 2015 by MPG

[Hocus Pocus]

4 minutes ago, MPG said:

Because this year we have a very strong El Nino driving everything, so there's no chance of another March 2013 in March 2016.

And it needs to be 'as cold' otherwise any snow will just disappear in March sunshine.

There is no empirical evidence to back up such an argument.

[Hocus Pocus]

12 hours ago, knocker said:

Quote MH

Without sounding like the 'harbinger of doom' there are some really worrying signals in terms of precip totals for NW Eng through Boxing Day

Yes I'm not looking forward to more flooding and one can only hope it passes us by with relative ease and we end up with a day like today. Wishful thinking I know.

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly at T240 this morning has the Aleutian LP, ridge western Canada, vortex Greenland with associated trough to NW of the UK. The European HP is ridging into Poland. More of the same weather wise in the WSW flow.

In the ext period still with the Aleutian LP and trough eastern Pacific with the ridge central Canada but the Greenland trough is now very negatively tilted into Scandinavia and now that the European ridge is no more the flow veering a tad to become zonal westerly. Just a suspicion of HP to the SW taking a peek above the parapet, Temps around average.

Abandon hope all yee who enter here

Edited December 23, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Yes I'm not looking forward to more flooding and one can only hope it passes us by with relative ease and we end up with a day like today. Wishful thinking I know.

I don't take much notice of model rainfall totals but this what the gfs is giving It has to said the ecm is giving about double of this. Which ever way you hang it things are not looking great.

Chart weatherbell

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by knocker

[Hocus Pocus]

Thanks ( I think ) knocker, one positive thing to take forward it can't go on and on.

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Thanks ( I think ) knocker, one positive thing to take forward it can't go on and on.

This possible storm just before New Year needs watching

[MP-R]

32 minutes ago, knocker said:

This possible storm just before New Year needs watching

Hope it gets downgraded big time - flying back from Poland on the 30th and it looks like a potentially bumpy ride!

[Evening thunder]

3 hours ago, MPG said:

Because this year we have a very strong El Nino driving everything, so there's no chance of another March 2013 in March 2016.

And it needs to be 'as cold' otherwise any snow will just disappear in March sunshine.

But I thought El Nino lead to an increased chance of a cold spring and back end to winter?

Of course, another March 2013 is unlikely in any year though.

Edited December 23, 2015 by Evening thunder

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

More disappointment:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3306364

[igloo]

by the time spring comes along  me and thousands like it will have grown webbed feet, fins and gills having to work outdoors everyday.talk of any change in pattern is wishfull thinking you can expect this type of pattern to last 2-3 months as history tells us this the poor people of cumbria i fell sorry for as more flooding looks certain in the next 2 weeks but more likely 2 months.new year parties looks likely they will have to be cancelled also

[Carl46Wrexham]

Would not be surprised if Cumbria is under a red warning again by Boxing Day. What a hateful season this is.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Then, the models are showing a monstrous LP system slamming into the UK and Ireland on New Year's Day with a central pressure of 940 mb, which, if it verifies, would do widespread damage to infrastructure.

Edited December 23, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Captain Shortwave]

Well if the GFS is correct then the answer to the frequently asked question is....

Yes.... It can get worse

Both storms achieve peak gusts of 90-100 mph with the second one giving Cumbria a direct hit.

The control run also develops both storms into serious features so a concern at the moment albeit things can change (especially with rapidly developing features like these).

[knocker]

The Atlantic express

 

[knocker]

The significance of the GEFs anomaly this evening could well be the ridging, and cross polar flow, of the NW Canada ridge. Extending the thinking on this you could get colder air down into the eastern US. a trough into Scandinavia and height rises in the Atlantic.

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by knocker

[cheese]

Bizarre..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well if the GFS is correct then the answer to the frequently asked question is....

Yes.... It can get worse

Both storms achieve peak gusts of 90-100 mph with the second one giving Cumbria a direct hit.

The control run also develops both storms into serious features so a concern at the moment albeit things can change (especially with rapidly developing features like these).

I much prefer the ECM for the same day, hope GFS is wrong here

Edited December 23, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[I Cumbria Marra I]

I didn't think it was possible but so far this winter is worse than 2013/14! IMBY

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

I didn't think it was possible but so far this winter is worse than 2013/14! IMBY

it's not here yet, drier and warmer than then, but expecting to pay for it in Jan, when the jet moves south, so it becomes cooler and wetter in the south

[knocker]

The ecm ext anomaly tonight is continuing the line it's been pushing for a few days and is not in agreement with the GEFS regarding the ridging Alaska, At T360 it has the Aleutian low and trough eastern Pacific and HP Canada but only weak ridging Alaska. The Greenland LP with negatively tilted trough SE into Scandinavia where of course there no longer is any ridging.  And finally a hint of HP pushing up to the SW. Ergo zonality but with the Atlantic trough displaced NE perhaps a cessation of the wild and woolly stuff for a more settled regime and temps around average. Not obvious to my unsophisticated eye that any cold is lurking in the woodshed awaiting to pounce on the unwary.

The NOAA 8-14 is not quite in agreement but I suspect this is because we are not comparing like with like and the averaging of NOAA puts it slightly behind with the orientation of the trough and thus the nudge from the HP to the SW.

Edited December 23, 2015 by knocker

[Nick L]

Down south it hasn't been worse than 2013/14 as, mercifully, we haven't seen astonishing levels of rainfall like in Cumbria. But either way, it's been a dire winter so far.

[Mapantz]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here you go Chris,that would be worrying

Cat	Hurricane Scale			Pressure(Millibars)
	Mph	Kph	Knots
1	74-95	119-153	64-82	980+
2	96-110	154-177	83-95	979-965
3	111-130	178-209	96-113	964-945
4	131-155	210-249	114-135	944-920
5	156+	250+	136+	below 920

 

8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Thanks, though, based on that, I wish I hadn't asked!

It doesn't quite work like for North Atlantic low pressures.
The pressure gradients and central pressures vary massively. The UK has experienced pressures below 950mb, and as low as the 20's before. 
Don't forget, those are wind speeds as well, unlikely that the UK would even see 95mph sustained winds.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

 

It doesn't quite work like for North Atlantic low pressures.
The pressure gradients and central pressures vary massively. The UK has experienced pressures below 950mb, and as low as the 20's before. 
Don't forget, those are wind speeds as well, unlikely that the UK would even see 95mph sustained winds.

Cheers.