Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[snowblizzard]

1 hour ago, snow mad said:

Jim Bacon on look east just said he doesn't expect any notable cold until at least the middle of Feb! Gggrrrr

And, I very much doubt that it will even happen then!

Unfortunately, we are very securely locked into this appalling (from a cold lovers perspective) pattern with a massive boulder/block over Europe which is going to take some shifting given the strong El Nino and raging Greenland vortex!

It really does look like we could be about to witness the mildest winter on record in UK & parts of NW Europe?

After only 3 weeks of winter, I'm now becoming extremely disheartened!

Having said that, mother nature has a habit of balancing warm/cold & wet/dry so there's always hope! 

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by snowblizzard

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

I keep on hearing that last winter was bad yet where I live we had more snow than any winter since 2010. A bit higher than the average here. 

Admittedly we didn't have a lot of nights below freezing out with the snowy spells

Whereas March (2013 ?) we didn't get a single snow flake.

We seem to benefit from PM snow whereas a lot of easterlies never seem to reach this far west.

And if it comes from the north there's two hundred and fifty miles of mountains for it to get past.

[E100]

2 hours ago, snow mad said:

Jim Bacon on look east just said he doesn't expect any notable cold until at least the middle of Feb! Gggrrrr

If south gets frost before March I will eat knockers woodshed

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

Whereas March (2013 ?) we didn't get a single snow flake.

 

I suppose it's always down to location wether it be too far south or north,in your case you was too far north,ironically,this was the scene here that month albeit i went up a couple of hundred feet to witness this,this is a road would you believe

 

 

[knocker]

Quote MH

Without sounding like the 'harbinger of doom' there are some really worrying signals in terms of precip totals for NW Eng through Boxing Day

[knocker]

ECMWF 5-day skill scores churning along at 0.95 ... GFS went in opposite direction over past few days.

 

[igloo]

i thought the polar vortex should slowly start to slacking as the days start to draw out but looking at this chart the northern half of the country looks set to be destroyed you cant even see the uk its so bad

Edited December 23, 2015 by igloo

[Nick L]

The unrelenting deluge for Cumbria is looking increasingly likely to continue towards new year. When will this wretched pattern end?

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 hours ago, Nick L said:

The unrelenting deluge for Cumbria is looking increasingly likely to continue towards new year. When will this wretched pattern end?

Soon I imagine. The changing polar profile is evident (and has been evident for a few days now) in FI. We stay unsettled initially due to vortex remaining strong around N Atlantic sector. However, given degradation of vortex elsewhere how long do you realistically think that particular segment can retain its integrity? GFS has hinted in the past 2 runs that the Greenland based vortex may even begin to relinquish it's grip early second week of Jan....

[northwestsnow]

5 hours ago, Nick L said:

The unrelenting deluge for Cumbria is looking increasingly likely to continue towards new year. When will this wretched pattern end?

soon, i hope, but realistically, weeks.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 hours ago, igloo said:

i thought the polar vortex should slowly start to slacking as the days start to draw out but looking at this chart the northern half of the country looks set to be destroyed you cant even see the uk its so bad

In theory, due to seasonal lag, an undisturbed fully mature vortex could be expected 3rd week of Jan. Obviously we don't often see this due to occurrences such as strat warming etc. 

[knocker]

In this morning's gfs, deep in the land of Oz, a shortwave  forms over France and travels down to Corsica and could bring some much needed snow to the Alps.

[MP-R]

11 hours ago, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

I keep on hearing that last winter was bad yet where I live we had more snow than any winter since 2010. A bit higher than the average here. 

Admittedly we didn't have a lot of nights below freezing out with the snowy spells

Whereas March (2013 ?) we didn't get a single snow flake.

We seem to benefit from PM snow whereas a lot of easterlies never seem to reach this far west.

And if it comes from the north there's two hundred and fifty miles of mountains for it to get past.

Agreed. Last winter, although disappointing given the synoptics, wasn't bad at all. December featured a lot of Pm airstreams, some places saw snow on Boxing Day and there was a brilliant frosty spell at the end of the month. January saw a return of the Pm airstreams which actually brought some snow around these parts, though I did have to go a few hundred metres higher to see it (the Severn streamer came into its own in this area on 14th Jan), then the second half of the month was frosty with occasional spells of wet snow. February then started cold and frosty up until around the 13th. So all in all last winter wasn't bad at all, it just could have delivered a more widespread snow event.

[LeeSnowFan]

Still nothing for us to get excited over this winter, lets see what January throws at us

 

In the meantime

 

 

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

And, I very much doubt that it will even happen then!

Unfortunately, we are very securely locked into this appalling (from a cold lovers perspective) pattern with a massive boulder/block over Europe which is going to take some shifting given the strong El Nino and raging Greenland vortex!

It really does look like we could be about to witness the mildest winter on record in UK & parts of NW Europe?

After only 3 weeks of winter, I'm now becoming extremely disheartened!

Having said that, mother nature has a habit of balancing warm/cold & wet/dry so there's always hope! 

 

id have thought the expected rise in pressure over europe to our east (as the anomaly charts suggest along with the ops) is a good thing from a coldies pov.

it introduces a pool of bitterly cold air into eastern/central europe, which is a 'first step' in the right direction. once central europe has cooled down itll only take a slight synoptic shift for us to pick up a cold easterly draft. and whilst a big freeze isnt on the cards, at least some more seasonally cooler weather might impact on us into january.

the other point is that the absent azores high returns. this cuts off the deep southwesterly flow, so temps will return to something more 'normal' but still on the mild side.

however.... if this was june, and it was a wet one with northern blocking, id be thinking that a change to something totally opposite would be extremely unlikely.  so im not sure there is much hope of a big freeze this winter.... but anythings possible.

[Liam J]

9 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Still nothing for us to get excited over this winter, lets see what January throws at us

 

In the meantime

 

 

The muds so saturated up here we can't even make a mudman! And more rain to come over Christmas week it's really not looking good at all... 

Edited December 23, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[MPG]

The good thing is only 9 weeks of winter left  

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the one good thing is that January will surely not be as mild as December has been......

Edited December 23, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[JOPRO]

Reasons to be positive as a cold lover :-

1. We have just about lived through one of the mildest December's on record, so we prob wont see one as mild for some time (We Hope!!!)

2. Its only December

3.We are currently heading into a deep solar minimum, so we could see some coldish winters coming up over the next few years, even if this winter does turn out to be a mild wash out.

4.For those who haven't seen snow since 2013 the law of averages suggests you will, and a for all those who think we wont see snow again at low levels we heard all this during some of those dire winters in the late 80s and 90s, as we have seen since then we can still get snow at low levels!!

5. Remember for every 1988/89 ,2013/14 1997/98 and November/December 2015 extreme mild winter we can also talk about 1947,1963,1987,1991,2009,2010,2013 cold spells, so in our climate we can get both extreme mild and cold in winter. If we are in a mild period at the moment then so be it, but there is a good chance that a some point we will enter another cold period.

6. Dont get to hung up on the models as they can and do change.

7. Its only the weather.

8.Its Christmas, who knows next one we may have a screaming easterly setting up and we wont be talking about dafs coming out !

Am sure you could draw a list of negatives up as well, but that's not the point, as I have said before this type of weather kills the mod thread as most peoples are looking for a cold and snow fix in winter. I miss the buzz and expectation of the build up to a cold spell as much as any cold weather lover, but am old enough to realise it isn't always goanna happen. So don't get to hung up try and follow the more knowledgeable posters and if someone's posts upset or anger you hit the ignor button.

Merry Christmas to you all and your families.

 

[Bristawl Si]

45 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Agreed. Last winter, although disappointing given the synoptics, wasn't bad at all. December featured a lot of Pm airstreams, some places saw snow on Boxing Day and there was a brilliant frosty spell at the end of the month. January saw a return of the Pm airstreams which actually brought some snow around these parts, though I did have to go a few hundred metres higher to see it (the Severn streamer came into its own in this area on 14th Jan), then the second half of the month was frosty with occasional spells of wet snow. February then started cold and frosty up until around the 13th. So all in all last winter wasn't bad at all, it just could have delivered a more widespread snow event.

Considering you live not that far from me (20 miles or so) i cant believe you experienced what u describe.

Last Winter was dreadful. One day of falling wet snow. That was it.

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, MPG said:

The good thing is only 9 weeks of winter left  

That's in terms of human record keeping though, Mother Nature doesn't have precise boundaries as the current spell and most of March 2013 shows.

[MPG]

Yes, but 2013 will not be repeated. And in most places that year the temps were cold but no snow.

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, MPG said:

Yes, but 2013 will not be repeated. And in most places that year the temps were cold but no snow.

How do you know that?  It could even be not as cold as March 2013 but far snowier. 

 

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Considering you live not that far from me (20 miles or so) i cant believe you experienced what u describe.

Last Winter was dreadful. One day of falling wet snow. That was it.

20 miles obviously makes all the difference; I've got photos to prove it although I'm at work at the moment so can't attach any. 

Off the top of my head:

27th-31st December: heavy frosts and sunshine

04th January: frost and fog/mist

13th-14th January: potent Pm blast with wintry showers - lying snow above 100m (I'll attach photos later)

17th January: falling snow but none settling

18th-23rd January: heavy frosts and plentiful sunshine but no snow

29th January: snow showers in the afternoon, temporary accumulation (dusting)

30th January-12th February: regular overnight frosts, mostly dry and quite sunny

 

Compared to this winter so far, last winter was considerably better and more like how I would expect an average southern British winter to be.

[Bristawl Si]

5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

20 miles obviously makes all the difference; I've got photos to prove it although I'm at work at the moment so can't attach any. 

Off the top of my head:

27th-31st December: heavy frosts and sunshine

04th January: frost and fog/mist

13th-14th January: potent Pm blast with wintry showers - lying snow above 100m (I'll attach photos later)

17th January: falling snow but none settling

18th-23rd January: heavy frosts and plentiful sunshine but no snow

29th January: snow showers in the afternoon, temporary accumulation (dusting)

30th January-12th February: regular overnight frosts, mostly dry and quite sunny

 

Compared to this winter so far, last winter was considerably better and more like how I would expect an average southern British winter to be.

So basically sh#te then in terms of cold and snow.