Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, MPG said:

Massive straw clutching that the MJO will save us and even more that a SSW will occur. The El Nino is massively over riding everything.

Or perhaps there is a little scientific basis that the El nino that is responsible for the current pattern feeds back later in the winter and produces a SSW. It may or may not occur but it is not straw clutching and is based on feedback mechanisms that have been well explained and seen in many (strong) Nino's prior to this one. In fact, this Nino seems bang in line with expectations. Strong vortex with warm wet early winter, wave 1 strat displacement, Scandi high........

How do you see January/Feb playing out and what are you basing this on? Or is your post based on even less than the straws that you claim others are clutching?

 

[MPG]

20 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Or perhaps there is a little scientific basis that the El nino that is responsible for the current pattern feeds back later in the winter and produces a SSW. It may or may not occur but it is not straw clutching and is based on feedback mechanisms that have been well explained and seen in many (strong) Nino's prior to this one. In fact, this Nino seems bang in line with expectations. Strong vortex with warm wet early winter, wave 1 strat displacement, Scandi high........

How do you see January/Feb playing out and what are you basing this on? Or is your post based on even less than the straws that you claim others are clutching?

 

You can have as much scientific basis as you want, but when it comes to the weather nothing pans out as your shown. So many people said a SSW was nailed last year around Xmas (matt Hugo etc) this was based on sceince, I think it was described in the end as half a SSW but in reality it didnt happen. So what years as you basing this El nino setup with regards to a SSW? I dont believe there are any comparisons and we are in uncharted teritory. It's good to have a straw to clutch, keeps the interested, but nothing is guaranteed. More mild, above average conditions are expected through jaunary.  I am basing my thoughts on their science and models (met). Also we live in a mild climate, continuous days of freezing temperatures let alone weeks is the extreme. 

Edited December 15, 2015 by MPG

[on the coast]

Wow. Another very mild run form the 18Z. I can take the mild but this bloody cloudy and damp muck that we have at the moment here is very depressing. If we are having the record mild spell then it would be nice to have the brightness to go with it. Also had a butterfly in the office today!!! Unreal.

[Peter H]

Even Simon Keeling has given up on any cold weather before the end of December, so things must be bad.

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

One of the mildest Decembers on record ?

I saw something on the news yesterday about daffodils in bloom in the south of England.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Cannot take much more of these outputs!! This evening I've seen flies out and around the light as if it was a sticky warm summers evening. Unreal. What is going on!!! 

Edited December 15, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Peter H]

1 hour ago, ditch said:

Having been born in the 60s and a love of the weather, especially warm dry summers and cold winters, something is going to go BOOM very soon!! Believe me,  Mother Nature will balance out this winter. The very mild/ warm conditions will be repaced by winters cold in the second half of winter......so keep the faith coldies :-)

I was born in the 50's and remember the winters of the 1960's. It was unheard of to have a winter without at least one or more significant snow events, and that was outside of 1962/63. Snowless winters were unheard of.

I doubt January and February will be any different to December.

Wishful thinking I'm afraid.

 

 

[nick sussex]

Whilst its been very mild here at least we haven't been subjected to the endless grey miserable days that seem to have been evident in the UK.

Indeed the amount of sunshine in the last month here has been remarkable of course courtesy of that Euro high slug which has set up in the worst position for the UK.

The problem in the UK is that mild in winter is rarely associated with dry conditions and always comes with loads of rain and miserable grey muck.

I really feel for fellow members in the UK who must be totally fed up of the  relentless gloom.

Edited December 16, 2015 by nick sussex

[Peter H]

I wish I could go and live somewhere in northern Canada,

Warm dry summers, and long bitterly cold snowy winters. every year.  Winnipeg, Calgary, or Edmonton would be nice.

None of this endless mild, cloud and drizzle and well away from this b***$£ jet stream.

 

[Nick L]

I needed the air conditioning in the car this morning to clear the condensation as it was too warm to use the heater. Revoltingly mild.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I needed the air conditioning in the car this morning to clear the condensation as it was too warm to use the heater. Revoltingly mild.

 

0nly 11.1 here now, was 11.6C at 7.20, but I am further north

[Nick L]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

0nly 11.1 here now, was 11.6C at 7.20, but I am further north

No idea what it is here, but 11.7c a few miles away in Chesham. I've had chillier starts in July.

[Liam J]

Even if a SSW does occur there's no guarantee that it'll lead to northern blocking that'll have a positive impact on the UK, and if one was to occur there is usually a lag time, or not always? I think we can say with some confidence now that the rest of December will be a write off for those looking for deep cold and snow. This is how Ed & Tony predicted it would pan out, milder and unsettled, and others who were shot down for writing off December before it had begun were more or less right... We have seen some snow but it has been limited and short lived for most before milder air returned, and now some exceptionally mild air, as I type it's 12.1c on a mid December morning, I've seen lower temps at dawn in summer!

Got a horrible feeling this winter is going to be remembered for the extremely mild conditions... 

Latest probability maps from the Met Office for Temperatures Jan/Feb/Mar, obviously take with a pinch of salt but a higher chance of above normal temps for the rest of winter. 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

5 hours ago, Peter H said:

I wish I could go and live somewhere in northern Canada,

Warm dry summers, and long bitterly cold snowy winters. every year.  Winnipeg, Calgary, or Edmonton would be nice.

None of this endless mild, cloud and drizzle and well away from this b***$£ jet stream.

 

don't go to Winnipeg its a dump..i have lived in both Edmonton and Calgary..love the summers and autumn...not the mosquitoes though!...novelty of cold and snow soon wear thin..but the sunshine is lovely..spring is the worst season though ..often cool/cold drab and wet at times.

[northwestsnow]

Absolutely revolting day again here,mild and heavy horrid drizzle, think i'll go and have a read of IDO 's post to cheer me up lol

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful runs again for cold lovers this am. 

Realistically probably at least another month away from any chance of proper cold. 

 

[JOPRO]

Only plus point over the next couple of days is I will be so busy with work I won't really notice these mild temperatures, I couldn't care less about them  as they are not what Ian looking for in the winter months. Come on coldies think how sweet it will be when we do get cold and snow,it will be all worth it if we get a good easterly in Jan/Feb then this mild dross will be a distant memory.

[Relativistic]

26 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

 

Got a horrible feeling this winter is going to be remembered for the extremely mild conditions... 

 

Interestingly, Piers Corbyn said this.

"This will be a memorable Winter, but that doesn't mean whatever speculation you might have heard on the web will happen."

And by speculation I am guessing he means the usual cold and snow talk that comes around every year. Perhaps he has gone for a super-mild Winter right the way through.

[March Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

Interestingly, Piers Corbyn said this.

"This will be a memorable Winter, but that doesn't mean whatever speculation you might have heard on the web will happen."

And by speculation I am guessing he means the usual cold and snow talk that comes around every year. Perhaps he has gone for a super-mild Winter right the way through.

The mildest December and coldest February in the same Winter? That would be memorable!

Anyway, it's Piers, should we pay much attention to what he says/implies?

[legritter]

Todays charts carry on showing us mild muck ,ok great for heating bills and great for slugs and snails ,but hang on is something stirring in the wood shed ,looks like a cool down in the far off charts and i,v got a feeling in my water that something is about to happen , perhaps the charts will liven up for us coldies next week  we could all do with a nice cheering up on that front ,cheers all decorating the tree today .

[knocker]

If anyone is interested I still have a few slots for the Xmas week in Alaska. The woodshed will be open for late bookings between 1200-1500

 

[Gavin Hannah]

COMON YOU DIRTY MUTHA WEATHER GODS!!!!!!! STOP RUINING THE WINTER!!!!!

[Relativistic]

14 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

The mildest December and coldest February in the same Winter? That would be memorable!

Anyway, it's Piers, should we pay much attention to what he says/implies?

I would take the mildest December on record for the coldest February any day.

I think we should at least pay some attention to him. He doesn't forecast exceptionally cold temperatures and deep snow every Winter like some do, and often (in many cases rightly) rubbishes such sensationalist claims.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

If anyone is interested I still have a few slots for the Xmas week in Alaska. The woodshed will be open for late bookings between 1200-1500

 

At least that should meet the expectations of most! 

[carinthian]

Just looked at the latest obs for you lot in Blighty. Just amazing warmth to dawn from almost the longest winter night. I would hate to be over there in that low cloud , muck and high humidity. Still a drought here with almost cloudless skies again. I am fed up with Euro Trash, but thankfully not the relentless spin sludge you are  enduring. It can only get better !

 C

Edited December 16, 2015 by carinthian

[Bristawl Si]

Oooohhhh....it feels so 1970s at the mo!

My grass could do with a cut (but it's too wet), flowers are out in pots that should've died by now.

And our heating is not even clicking on.

Last night i had my legs out of the duvet and we aint anywhere near putting the thicker duvet on.

Phew...what a scorcher!

Edited December 16, 2015 by Bristle boy