Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Frank Trough]

I've just randomly copied this from the MOD thread so I can make a point:

"I have no interest in the charts above haha  plenty of time to see charts like that in the start of spring ."

This is in reference to the upcoming shockingly, potentially record breaking December warmth. It's not really what I want to see either but the fact is it is what is going to happen, because it's in the reliable timeframe.

I sometimes wonder if there shouldn't be a thread specifically to discuss the output up to t+144 and then another to discuss output >t+144. After all, regardless of what weather we want it is useful to analyse the weather that might actually verify. I have to plan site visits for work and my summer hobby of fishing relies on trying to forecast with accuracy the wind direction and timing of rain events etc within a fairly short timescale.

Personally I would value the input of the multitude of talented model analysts on this forum at looking at the more reliable timeframe and discussing the timing of weather fronts, where rainfall is likely to be highest, will fog linger, will the wind swing round...etc etc. Obviously in winter when there is a cold spell that gets inside t+144 then that would be very exciting too.

I'd also then quite like to read through the winter "hunt for cold" (and summer "hunt for anything other gales and rain") in the >t+144 category in the knowledge that it is fun, interesting but ultimately a search for clues and potential pattern changes.  How much does the model thread gain from seeing day 16 mean charts or day 8+ operational charts? Even in this current "dirge" there is still weather that is going to verify which is worthy of discussion without having to trip over CFS output or charts that basically have as much chance of verifying as giving Tess Daley some coloured Crayons and a paper plate. But I do understand that it is still fun and interesting, just it would be good to have it somewhere else.

Anyway, just a thought which i'm sure has been explored before and there are probably loads of good reasons not to do it.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Certain kind of fool

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

My take on 'Merry Christmas Everyone'

 

rain is pouring, all around us, kids complaining, there is no snow, 
its the season, of records being shattered, merry El Nino, everyone! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

My take on 'Merry Christmas Everyone'

 

rain is pouring, all around us, kids complaining, there is no snow, 
its the season, of records being shattered, merry El Nino, everyone! 

certainly what I thought as well, so many songs could be changed from snow to rain in the even larger teapot

[Nick L]

Like I've said, if we have to put up with this mild, dull, depressing dross, it might as well break some records while it's doing it.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, Certain kind of fool said:

I sometimes wonder if there shouldn't be a thread specifically to discuss the output up to t+144 and then another to discuss output >t+144. After all, regardless of what weather we want it is useful to analyse the weather that might actually verify. I have to plan site visits for work and my summer hobby of fishing relies on trying to forecast with accuracy the wind direction and timing of rain events etc within a fairly short timescale.

Personally I would value the input of the multitude of talented model analysts on this forum at looking at the more reliable timeframe and discussing the timing of weather fronts, where rainfall is likely to be highest, will fog linger, will the wind swing round...etc etc. Obviously in winter when there is a cold spell that gets inside t+144 then that would be very exciting too.

I'd also then quite like to read through the winter "hunt for cold" (and summer "hunt for anything other gales and rain") in the >t+144 category in the knowledge that it is fun, interesting but ultimately a search for clues and potential pattern changes.  How much does the model thread gain from seeing day 16 mean charts or day 8+ operational charts? Even in this current "dirge" there is still weather that is going to verify which is worthy of discussion without having to trip over CFS output or charts that basically have as much chance of verifying as giving Tess Daley some coloured Crayons and a paper plate. But I do understand that it is still fun and interesting, just it would be good to have it somewhere else.

Anyway, just a thought which i'm sure has been explored before and there are probably loads of good reasons not to do it.

Damn good idea, I reckon.  I suspect quite a few of us would welcome that sort of division of the model thread into "short-range modelling" and "speculative long-range modelling" threads.

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Are air frosts in London in November all that unusual? perhaps they are now, I don't know.

I am still on only one ice scrape of the car windscreen and it is now "officially" the middle of December. Looking at the output this morning that isn't going to change for sometime in my neck of the woods (although i'm in tropical Bournemouth - "the land that winter forgot" - I do live quite low down in a river valley so we tend to get frosts a little more often than the immediate surroundings).

"The Euro High is dead...long live the Euro High"

I hope a new year brings a change of fortunes - just something more seasonal would be nice. A bit like prawn cocktail, cold, crisp, sunny frosty weather should never really have gone out of fashion.

Yes unusual, very scarce the fact I recorded -2C was quite astounding by a PM airmass a bitter one of that I also had some snow again last time that happened was in 2010 and before that God knows. They have always been a rarity I'm heavily impacted by UHI being 2.4 miles from City of London. Air frosts are not common markedly so in November.

[sunnijim]

In my lifetime i am finding it hard to recall such a long standing 'overall' stagnent pattern.

The Euro high has been a major player in the weather over Southern England since at least October 2014,it killed any severe weather events be it snowfall or rain/wind here during that winter,it's continued flirtation gave the South an ok Summer.

With the pattern stronger than ever,a dire first half of winter continues for any type of severe weather enthusiast.

1988/89 is the only thing close to this that i could find,but we seem to be in a much longer phase of overall Euro high dominace this time,perhaps the strongest El nino ever has left us with the best cure for insomnia known to a weather enthusiast.

[knocker]

Well the hare is up and running and some heavy money has been placed on MOJO in trap 6, or is it 7?

[Polar Maritime]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well the hare is up and running and some heavy money has been placed on MOJO in trap 6, or is it 7?

According to EC mixed signals for 6/7. Never mind the GFS...

[mountain shadow]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

Well the hare is up and running and some heavy money has been placed on MOJO in trap 6, or is it 7?

Indeed Knocker and you know things are bad when the only gamble on the table is on the MJO three weeks down the line.

 

[The PIT]

Worse weather of the lot. Dull quiet drizzly misty dross. If it's going to mild lets have stormy weather at least it makes it interesting. The only thing this mild weather is good for is snails slugs and fungi.

Even more annoying the grass is till growing and can't be cut as it's too wet.

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Indeed Knocker and you know things are bad when the only gamble on the table is on the MJO three weeks down the line.

 

Why are you always so insistent in the doom and gloom? I do not see you contributing much where there's colder synoptics on show  sorry if I'm mistaken and it may be a distance away but it may be worth the wait the very fact this is not typical of an El Niño shows we're in unforeseen territory and potentially exciting model watching in the weeks ahead.

Edited December 15, 2015 by Daniel*

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Why are you always so insistent in the doom and gloom? I do not see you contributing much where there's colder synoptics on show  sorry if I'm mistaken and it may be a distance away but it may be worth the wait the very fact this is not typical of an El Niño shows we're in unforeseen territory and potentially exciting in the weeks ahead.

I'm moaning because this is where I'm allowed to moan. 

Where are these colder synoptics for me to ramp about. 

When there is,  believe me I'll be ramping along with The Chosen One like everyone else.

[Bristawl Si]

If it remains mild then fine (yes, saves on heating bills and i know that kinda statement riles some peeps) but i'd prefer a nice snowy spell.

However, a boring dry cold flow from the East, with a strong Scandi High and no LP to the South to pep up precipitation?! No thanks.

I'd prefer a Bartlett high.

Cheers

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

If it remains mild then fine (yes, saves on heating bills and i know that kinda statement riles some peeps) but i'd prefer a nice snowy spell.

However, a boring dry cold flow from the East, with a strong Scandi High and no LP to the South to pep up precipitation?! No thanks.

I'd prefer a Bartlett high.

Cheers

kinda agree about last bit, but at least it will feel like winter with E'ly, I much prefer Bartlett over cold zonality/southerly tracking jet, as I don't live above 300m oop norf

my least favoured setup is what some refer to on here as (cold zonality) wettest setup for my location, (yes I have had some rain, but at least warm rain), keep the bartlett thanks

 

Edited December 15, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[conor123]

Looking at the 12z it's safe to say 2015 was the worst year in living memory weather wise here and I won't be posting till January as 15c drizzly muck does nothing for me.

To sum it up:

All spring and summer warmth/sunshine confined to working weekdays with washout cool weekend's, attempted snow events in January/February washed away 2 hours later by mild upper's and rain, dullest November on record, those southerly tracking lows at the end of July.

Only redeeming features were the thunderstorm on 22nd August which was fantastic (first proper overhead storm since 2008) and the glorious late Indian Summer warmth at the end of September. Other than that good riddance and i'll be back in the New Year, hopefully 2016 will bring the return to real seasons/excitement last y ear Jan-Jul 2013.

[Bolt from the Blue]

Weather forecast continuing it's depressing theme, more wind & rain with no end in sight. I can only hope 2016 has something more settled in store for us...

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, Greenland1080 said:

Anything over a Bartlett thanks...anyway hares out traps 7 8 into 1 for me leading through first bend to the line with massive  resistance to the COD on the latest MJO please..and staying that way into April....Scandi highs into Greenland highs easterly into north easterlies...1947 Esk mmmm

And i'm a monkey's uncle. Chortle!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

We may as well keep it balmy! I mean looking rubbish over Xmas with typical average Dec weather, low pressure with the Atlantic in charge, crappy temps of 8C max , 4C mins

would rather have rain at 16C, than at 6C, I mean who wouldn't

[March Blizzard]

I saw snow in January this year, so I've not had the same long wait as many in the south have had. However, whilst I can live without snow, It would be nice to at least have a cold, settled and sunny spell. Some low winter sun and frosty, starry nights would be some very welcome tonic.

May have to wait a while to see that, though.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

I saw snow in January this year, so I've not had the same long wait as many in the south have had. However, whilst I can live without snow, It would be nice to at least have a cold, settled and sunny spell. Some low winter sun and frosty, starry nights would be some very welcome tonic.

May have to wait a while to see that, though.

 

I actually saw some on 20th Nov, so not a snowless 'winter' for me

[North-Easterly Blast]

Given that there is currently no sign of a genuine cold snap this month, and the exceptional warmth of this week, and for the rest of the month it is looking like temperatures will remain above average, it now looks very likely that this December will record the highest CET ever (the current record is 8.1*C in 1934 and 1974).   With a CET for the first half of the month of 9.1 - 9.2 we have very likely had the warmest first half of December on record since 1772 (the previous warmest first halves of December were all 9.0, in 1898, 1918 and 1934). 

It seems to me that a strong ENSO anomaly either way often means a very mild winter, or at least significant or extended spells of very mild weather in the winter, and at least a lack of cold weather.  Notable examples of this are 1997-98 (strong El Nino) and 1988-89 (strong La Nina).  There are very few years to go on as we only have ENSO data back to 1950.  Although no strong El Nino has coincided with a cold winter, one did coincide with a cold month (Feb 1983), and the other way, no strong La Nina has coincided with a cold winter, but one did coincide with one notably cold month (Dec 2010).

Although strong ENSO anomalies either way often increase the chance of exceptionally mild winter spells like we have now, you certainly do not need a strong ENSO anomaly for this; look at the disaster winter 2013-14 was in a neutral ENSO, look at winter 2001-02 and that January / February in a neutral ENSO, look at winter 1989-90 and the warmest Jan / Feb pair on record; also winter 1974-75, the warmest Dec / Jan pair on record in only a weak La Nina.  It appears that you can still almost equally get poor winters from a cold perspective or exceptionally mild spells in winter even when the ENSO is neutral.

 

[ditch]

Having been born in the 60s and a love of the weather, especially warm dry summers and cold winters, something is going to go BOOM very soon!! Believe me,  Mother Nature will balance out this winter. The very mild/ warm conditions will be repaced by winters cold in the second half of winter......so keep the faith coldies :-)

 

 

 

[weather_it_will]

Rainfall is below average here for the last 30 days, and so if it's going to be mild we may as well have more rain to make it interesting.

I wish for cold weather and snow, as that is how it should be in winter, and not this boring mild grey mush we have,

and still waiting for a 1947 winter.

 

[MPG]

Massive straw clutching that the MJO will save us and even more that a SSW will occur. The El Nino is massively over riding everything.