Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Woollymummy]

10 minutes ago, roys said:

will there be any butterfly effect on the weather when they launch the rocket on Tuesday, will it stir the cold weather in to action, any thoughts anyone.  

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002GL015079/full I never thought of the effects before, not sure how it would affect weather down below.

[Froze were the Days]

Have to say after watching the week ahead forecast on Countryfile yesterday it was quite astounding looking at the Atlantic synopsis how just far south low pressure was developing (something I've never really seen regularly repeat in viewing late Autumn/Winter weather in 30 odd years), experienced in the first week or so of November. After this pattern it looks like a 'switch' back to more of a PV powered Atlantic and more of a west/south westerly bias (something again experienced in the latter half of November) - this month to a degree is just repeating November.

Got our first single day max today (hurrah) but still waiting on the first frost...got a bad bad feeling this winter could well be the warmest on record.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Have to say after watching the week ahead forecast on Countryfile yesterday it was quite astounding looking at the Atlantic synopsis how just far south low pressure was developing (something I've never really seen regularly repeat in viewing late Autumn/Winter weather in 30 odd years), experienced in the first week or so of November. After this pattern it looks like a 'switch' back to more of a PV powered Atlantic and more of a west/south westerly bias (something again experienced in the latter half of November) - this month to a degree is just repeating November.

Got our first single day max today (hurrah) but still waiting on the first frost...got a bad bad feeling this winter could well be the warmest on record.

Have to say after watching the week ahead forecast on Countryfile yesterday it was quite astounding looking at the Atlantic synopsis how just far south low pressure was developing (something I've never really seen regularly repeat in viewing late Autumn/Winter weather in 30 odd years), experienced in the first week or so of November. After this pattern it looks like a 'switch' back to more of a PV powered Atlantic and more of a west/south westerly bias (something again experienced in the latter half of November) - this month to a degree is just repeating November.

Got our first single day max today (hurrah) but still waiting on the first frost..est on reco.got a bad bad feeling this winter could well be the warmrd.

I feel the same as well, got a feeling the mildest ever winter, not ruling it out, t

this thing is going so weird? didn't mean to alter post, also cannot post in model thread! (don't anyway mind you)

Edited December 14, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Woollymummy]

12 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

It's dreadful I mean BBC weather forecasts showing daffodils, people shopping in t shirts shorts looking at gardening areas.....de icer not one gone from shelves

We still have an unused show shovel, bought expectantly with a couple of sledges a few years ago, now probably all UV-degraded,brittle and useless. Also one whole unopened bag of rock salt 

[Woollymummy]

2 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Lots of mulled wine needed!!!!!

definitely mulled wine now I am off the ibuprofen, and some home made pastel de nata instead of mince pies while I get on with some work and resist the urge to check the models......

[igloo]

im not sure how often ssw events are 1 every 5 years or even worse 1 for every 10 years maybe someone can tell me the averages but the last one was march 2013 unless we have another there is no hope of any change till the polar vortex  naturally  disappears in late winter early spring.this  december looks like a record breaker 5c above average with january still to come that to could  be another 5c above average 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, igloo said:

im not sure how often ssw events are 1 every 5 years or even worse 1 for every 10 years maybe someone can tell me the averages but the last one was march 2013 unless we have another there is no hope of any change till the polar vortex  naturally  disappears in late winter early spring.this  december looks like a record breaker 5c above average with january still to come that to could  be another 5c above average 

 

April, the next month to be below average

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

That's complete nonsense seeing it's 14th Dec

I had to write something, it dosen't let me unquote posts! why nonsesne anyway, feel Jan ,Feb and march will be above average

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

To say that on 14th December....maybe you will be right but a big call to say Jan Feb Match above average on 14th Dec

would you have thought say in 0ct, if I predicted the mildest Dec ever? I didn't but I did go for westerlies to dominate from start to finish

[ANYWEATHER]

Can we please keep this on topic...

[The Enforcer]

A mildest ever December of the ilk being currently modelled would not necessarily equal the mildest ever winter, according to the CETs of the most pronounced El Nino winters since 1950/51:

Very Strong El Nino:

1982/83 - Dec 4.1 Jan 6.7 Feb 1.7

1997/98 - Dec 5.8 Jan 5.2 Feb 7.3

Strong El Nino:

1957/58 - Dec 4.5 Jan 3.4 Feb 4.7

1965/66 - Dec 4.7 Jan 2.9 Feb 5.7

1972/73 - Dec 5.8 Jan 4.5 Feb 4.3

Moderate El Nino:

1963/64 - Dec 2.6 Jan 3.4 Feb 4.5

1986/87 - Dec 6.2 Jan 0.8 Feb 3.6  - the mildest December of the El Nino winters was followed by the coldest January of the El Nino winters

1987/88 - Dec 5.6 Jan 5.3 Feb 4.9

1991/92 - Dec 4.7 Jan 3.7 Feb 5.4

2002/03 - Dec 5.7 Jan 4.5 Feb 3.9

2009/10 - Dec 3.1 Jan 1.4 Feb 2.8

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by The Enforcer

[AderynCoch]

22 hours ago, Peter H said:

Last June was absolutely freezing before we went on holiday, due to the "colder Atlantic". August was pretty cool too for the same reason

Funny how the "colder Atlantic" influence has completely dissipated now we're into December, which is pretty typical.

Yes, we felt the influence of that cold pool in the summer because, quite disgustingly, we had to endure horrid NWerlies for much of the time; bad enough on their own, it also meant the winds were coming at us from the direction of the cold pool. I lost count of the number of days we had those freezing cold winds and those evenings when I had to close the window because it was too cold. Come November and we get stuck in SWerly mode right up to Christmas and quite possibly beyond, rendering any cold anomaly out west useless (and perhaps even removing the anomaly altogether). It's been an absolutely terrible year for extremes. Even 1st July failed here due to magically-appearing cloud filling in during the morning when the forecast looked great right up to the day.

I'll be in sunny Seville for a month from 10th January so Britain will probably get a cold spell then.

[knocker]

I must admit I'm not convinced by this cold pool lower temps argument given the amount of boundary layer mixing during the travels of the airmass. Now whether it lowers geopotential heights over the Atlantic is another matter.

Edited December 14, 2015 by knocker

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

would you have thought say in 0ct, if I predicted the mildest Dec ever? I didn't but I did go for westerlies to dominate from start to finish

Who would have thought Feb,March 2016 would have turned out to be some of the coldest months on record

[Dancerwithwings]

19 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Who would have thought Feb,March 2016 would have turned out to be some of the coldest months on record

Yes who ever would of thought hey! .....hope your right

[MPG]

17 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

So according to Cohen changes are still expected in January. With the PV becoming more disorganised.

 

I liked the quote, it said a change to much colder conditions for eastern USA and/or Europe, I'm sure it will change to much colder conditions for eastern USA with Europe above average!

[Nick L]

We're half way through December and large swathes of southern England haven't even seen the thermometer drop below zero.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

We're half way through December and large swathes of southern England haven't even seen the thermometer drop below zero.

In Greater London I've had 2 air frosts a lot earlier than usual out of that November cold spell. 

[mountain shadow]

All very predictable at the moment.  No likely change until February 

 

[snefnug]

Just reminded, sipping morning tea with no heating on, how appallingly cold it was in some 70's and 80's winters (and a few more recent ones) - ice on inside of windows, getting dressed in bed, horrible chilblains.  Much as I love a good snow, not sure I miss that.

[Nick L]

Just now, Daniel* said:

In Greater London I've had 2 air frosts a lot earlier than usual out of that November cold spell. 

I was just talking about December.

[knocker]

Just an observation but if these current very unusual meteorological conditions were the polar opposite then an emergency call would be out for more defibrillators.

[Frank Trough]

19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

In Greater London I've had 2 air frosts a lot earlier than usual out of that November cold spell.

Are air frosts in London in November all that unusual? perhaps they are now, I don't know.

I am still on only one ice scrape of the car windscreen and it is now "officially" the middle of December. Looking at the output this morning that isn't going to change for sometime in my neck of the woods (although i'm in tropical Bournemouth - "the land that winter forgot" - I do live quite low down in a river valley so we tend to get frosts a little more often than the immediate surroundings).

"The Euro High is dead...long live the Euro High"

I hope a new year brings a change of fortunes - just something more seasonal would be nice. A bit like prawn cocktail, cold, crisp, sunny frosty weather should never really have gone out of fashion.

[Weather-history]

12 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

A mildest ever December of the ilk being currently modelled would not necessarily equal the mildest ever winter, according to the CETs of the most pronounced El Nino winters since 1950/51:

Very Strong El Nino:

1982/83 - Dec 4.1 Jan 6.7 Feb 1.7

1997/98 - Dec 5.8 Jan 5.2 Feb 7.3

Strong El Nino:

1957/58 - Dec 4.5 Jan 3.4 Feb 4.7

1965/66 - Dec 4.7 Jan 2.9 Feb 5.7

1972/73 - Dec 5.8 Jan 4.5 Feb 4.3

 

If you look at the Aprils that followed those strong El Niños

April 1958: 7.4

April 1966: 7.0

April 1973: 7.0

April 1983: 6.8

April 1998: 7.7

 

[JOPRO]

39 minutes ago, Nick L said:

We're half way through December and large swathes of southern England haven't even seen the thermometer drop below zero.

Think we are doing better round here for frosts than we did during winter 2013/14 that's if you can call that a winter, by my book we have managed 3. You know its  not going to be good news as a cold lover in winter when you log on in the morning and see the first few post of the day in the mod thread are from Knocker!!! Still on to the next round of runs. No Surrender to the Euro High! You can take our snow and frost but you will never take our winter!!!!!!!