Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

But, we didn't have El Nino 2012/13 or 2013/14 but it was basically the same pattern through almost both winters?

Yes. But SSWs are more likely during El Nino.

Incidentally I received about two foot of snow in March 2013.

[mountain shadow]

Not one post on the GFS 6z, not one.

What a boring Winter this is so far.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

But, we didn't have El Nino 2012/13 or 2013/14 but it was basically the same pattern through almost both winters?

no last el-nino was 2009/10 which was a weak to moderate affair..this is much larger and basin wide..which is more likely to enhance the euro high and produce lengthy spells of zonal westerly winter weather as we have now.

[Yarmy]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

 

Wouldn't it be ironic that cold water around the UK result in a ridiculously warm winter lol. Puts to bed the theory that they help in delivering colder weather...

The waters around the UK are anomalously warm and have been for some time.

I not sure where the idea came from that cold Atlantic blob=cold UK winter. Besides, it's the great big red spike in the central Pacific that's the problem.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Yarmy

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Not sure I agree, SW/Westerlies miles more common than N/Easterlies, especially in Dec, maybe not in Sept, April, May

You can't argue with the raw data.  We're on course for an exceptionally mild December, and, IMO, an equally exceptionally-mild January and Februry as well.  Of course Atlantic-driven weather is the default British winter pattern, but the point is tht these usually see more Pm air and less Tm as the winter progresses.  If anything, current outputs are suggesting the opposite.  I joked the other day about charts showng an airmass sourced from near Brazil; some of the outputs being posted in the Mod thread this morningt are showing a switch to just off the coast of NW Africa!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

December seems like it has been sunnier than November here so far. It wouldn't actually surprise me if it turns out to be a sunnier month statistically.

What's the sun?  It's been so long since most of us in the east have seen it that I think we've forgotten what it is!

Edited December 11, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting a grammatical error/typo

[snowblizzard]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes. But SSWs are more likely during El Nino.

Incidentally I received about two foot of snow in March 2013.

Yes, in Tonbridge, Kent we even had about 4 inches of powder snow on 12th March 2013 (which was brilliant) but that was it and it only lasted about 24 hours!

I think I'm right in saying that mini cold snap was a result of unexpected SSW?

[snowblizzard]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

no last el-nino was 2009/10 which was a weak to moderate affair..this is much larger and basin wide..which is more likely to enhance the euro high and produce lengthy spells of zonal westerly winter weather as we have now.

Depressing thought!

[Summer Sun]

3 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

December seems like it has been sunnier than November here so far. It wouldn't actually surprise me if it turns out to be a sunnier month statistically.

To be fair it won't take much to improve on last month sunshine wise!

[igloo]

well the met office has writing of any cold or even average conditions till at least mid january sad to say for the poor people in cumbria more flooding looks very likely very sad 

Edited December 11, 2015 by igloo

[mushymanrob]

well ill go on a cold ramp!

the ever favoured (by me) anomaly charts support pressure building to our east, and there are strong hints of this on some model runs. currently and pressure rise to our east is expected to be temporary - but - it is not set in stone. as i see it, although not the favoured option by the models including the noaa charts, it is possible that the high expected to our east by midweek next, could build, could set up home over scandnavia, could actually block the easterly progress of the atlantic systems which could feasibly lead to something much colder for the uk.

the point being is that there is a slender chance of something colder more blocked evolving, so its not all doom and gloom.

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

The average max daily temperature in December for my location on the southern edge of the Scottish Highlands is 6.4C.

And daily maximums in this area has varied between 10C and 4C most days, with a fair few around the 6C and 7C mark.

So, a fairly average December temperature wise.

It's worth bearing in mind that geographically half of the mainland UK is from Cumbria / North Yorkshire northwards and temperatures here have been much cooler than the rest of the UK. 

And as the weather is geographically related, taking the UK as a whole,  the temperature has perhaps not been as extreme as many on here are espousing.

Perhaps the really unusual element about this winter is the temperature gradient and  weather differences that have existed for so long north or south of the 54 degree latitude line and why there has been so little overlap / change in that position.

Or maybe what I'm really trying to say is that the real question is "why has the 'Euro slug' maintained its position for such a long period of time " 

 

[northwestsnow]

Is the UK climate becoming predictable? Massive blocking come April? Place your bets.

[Frosty_wsm]

5 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

You can't argue with the raw data.  We're on course for an exceptionally mild December, and, IMO, an equally exceptionally-mild January and Februry as well.  Of course Atlantic-driven weather is the default British winter pattern, but the point is tht these usually see more Pm air and less Tm as the winter progresses.  If anything, current outputs are suggesting the opposite.  I joked the other day about charts showng an airmass sourced from near Brazil; some of the outputs being posted in the Mod thread this morningt are showing a switch to just off the coast of NW Africa!

Can you lend me your crystal ball, I'd like to use it for the next lottery draw!! Calling the rest of December mild will probably turn out correct but writing off both Jan & feb is laughable at this point to say the least.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

14 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Can you lend me your crystal ball, I'd like to use it for the next lottery draw!! Calling the rest of December mild will probably turn out correct but writing off both Jan & feb is laughable at this point to say the least.

Just a hunch, hence "IMO".  I certainly can't produce evidence supporting my thoughts.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I bet the old Door Mice and Hedgehogs don't know whether they are coming or going! So much for hibernation hey! 

It is a pretty bleak start to the Winter (from a coldie perspective) but at least things can only get better, least I hope so for the sanity of many of us in here! 

I'm thinking (and hoping) if we are to get a descent cold spell that this will come second half of Winter now. So, I'll nail my colours to the mast and go so far as to say we'll have a 1947 style Feb i.e. bitterly cold and snowy with this extending into the first 2 weeks of March 

[snowblizzard]

50 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

I bet the old Door Mice and Hedgehogs don't know whether they are coming or going! So much for hibernation hey! 

It is a pretty bleak start to the Winter (from a coldie perspective) but at least things can only get better, least I hope so for the sanity of many of us in here! 

I'm thinking (and hoping) if we are to get a descent cold spell that this will come second half of Winter now. So, I'll nail my colours to the mast and go so far as to say we'll have a 1947 style Feb i.e. bitterly cold and snowy with this extending into the first 2 weeks of March 

I reckon Ladbrokes would be prepared to offer 500/1 against that actually happening WMD! 

[snowblizzard]

Although, I've been really pessimistic about the prospects of severe cold wintry conditions this winter.

I just have a gut feeling that something will suddenly change (as so often happens) during the next 3-4 weeks and the UK will be plunged into a prolonged cold & snowy spell! 

Here's hoping.  

Edited December 11, 2015 by snowblizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Although, I've been really pessimistic about the prospects of severe cold wintry conditions this winter.

I just have a gut feeling that something will suddenly change (as so often happens) during the next 3-4 weeks and the UK will be plunged into a prolonged cold & snowy spell! 

Here's hoping.  

 

eh? in the uk? I have the same 'feeling' we will reach mid Jan, and we will be in this same setup, low after low, full on zonal

[Costa Del Fal]

10 hours ago, cheese said:

W/SW winds dominate all year, but not to the extent that we're seeing now. Here, we haven't had a single day with a maximum below 10C. No lows below 2C. Mean temperature of 10C.

Whichever way you cut it, this is far from ordinary. In fact, it's exceptional.

You didn't get below 10c Max during that cold spell around the 19th November?

[Costa Del Fal]

6 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Admittedly an IMBY post.

Yes a lot sunnier here so far. Seems west is best right now.

[joggs]

Lovely summer pattern showing up in over a wk time and decent blocking in summer(what we'd love in winter) 

Feels really tedious nowadays to have the right pattern in place at the right time of year arrrrrrgh.

[snowblizzard]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

eh? in the uk? I have the same 'feeling' we will reach mid Jan, and we will be in this same setup, low after low, full on zonal

Yep, far more likely!

[Costa Del Fal]

Christmas Day in shorts a potential possibility? Who needs australian Christmas! 

Edited December 11, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Christmas Day in shorts a potential possibility? Who needs australian Christmas! 

 

can wear shorts if you want yeah! my prediction for Xmas Day is, raging zonality, wet, around 9C in south, 5C in north, blizzards on Scottish mountains

then for Boxing Day, next system rolls in, 10C south, very wet (south) leading edge hill snow north, gales as well, possible damage

then for 27th, next system rolls in, 10C in south, 5C north again wet (south) sleet/snow showers hills north, in PM air behind front

gosh, this forecasting thing is easy