Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Methuselah]

Not the right time of year for imported storms, I guess...But who knows? We could get lucky?

[Steve C]

Not bothered either way, if it's cold or mild, but a week of snow wouldn't go amiss... What I dislike is the lack of sunshine and why I grew really fed up with November. December, although continuing with the theme, has provided a couple of half decent days.

Mind you, I shouldn't moan too much. The SE, although cloudy, hasn't been all that wet - I don't think there have been recent flood alerts near here? I feel for people who have months of flooded out misery ahead. Much more deserving of sympathy than a few cry babies worrying about the lack of snow in early December.

[The PIT]

Can't see a week of Snow unless you live in the highlands. Still may get a surprise this weekend depending where the weather front ends up. After that mild mild mild or mild then average.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not feeling the festive period unfortunately with the latest set of gloomy well above normal charts on offer from both GFS and his distant relative ECM.

Help please!!! Santa Claus!

Edited December 10, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not feeling the festive period unfortunately with the latest set of gloomy well above normal charts on offer from both GFS and his distant relative ECM.

Help please!!! Santa Claus!

 

Normal December charts showing really, westerlies and low pressure, cannot expect much else, just hope it can be as dry as possible, if it dosen't rain all day then not too bad

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Normal December charts showing really, westerlies and low pressure, cannot expect much else, just hope it can be as dry as possible, if it dosen't rain all day then not too bad

But the trouble is December so far is +5.3c above the 61 to 90 average and +4.9c above the 81 to 10 average.

The forecasted trend (e.g. ECM at 240T) might be leading some to the garden path when the current trend is to maintain well above normal temperatures.

December = game over

Well lets see what January brings....

Edited December 11, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[Nick L]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Normal December charts showing really, westerlies and low pressure, cannot expect much else, just hope it can be as dry as possible, if it dosen't rain all day then not too bad

We're on course for giving the record warm December a run for its money. It's about as far from "normal" as is possible. It's like calling December 2010 normal.

[northwestsnow]

I suggest anybody wanting anything seasonal stays away from the GFS run this morning.

Its repugnant from pretty much start to finish.

 

[Nick L]

To put how abnormal the current outlook is into perspective, at work I have an automated table of temperatures for the coming days, mainly but not exclusively based on ECM data. For London, there is not one day from now until Christmas Eve that is less than 1c above normal, and most are at least 3c above normal. The persistence of this mild spell is impressive if nothing else.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Nick L

[Biggin]

Nick, any idea how parts of Europe are fairing in the above normal temperature  readings ?

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Nick, any idea how parts of Europe are fairing in the above normal temperature  readings ?

The same table is pretty much a sea of oranges and reds for the rest of Europe. Generally on the same scale as the UK. It's a wretched outlook for all!

[Weather-history]

26 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The same table is pretty much a sea of oranges and reds for the rest of Europe. Generally on the same scale as the UK. It's a wretched outlook for all!

NE USA is exceptionally mild. Makes a mockery that if they are very cold then we are mild and vice versa.

Looked at Toronto temps, not exactly Arctic!

[mountain shadow]

Knockers daffs will be getting a second bloom by the end of the month.

Shocking stuff.  What if the SSW doesn't deliver!!!!??

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Knockers daffs will be getting a second bloom by the end of the month.

Shocking stuff.  What if the SSW doesn't deliver!!!!??

Its going to take something monumental to shift that Euro high, and probably something even more monumental to shift that uber Vortex over Greenland.

Its bringing back horrid memories of the late 80's.

[Steve Edgefield]

What's awful about this weather is that it just produces days of grey, laden skies and damp drizzly conditions.  What happened to the high pressures that delivered a few sunny, crisp and frosty days in between the rain and wind.  It comes to something when you're struggling to find one of those in the models let alone any sign of deep cold.  This warmth has been remarkable down South. December looks like it's on course to be one of the warmest.  I went to Jersey end of November and daffodils were already out there.  It just ain't right.  I know it's early into winter but with all this latent warmth it's hard to see how there can be such a dramatic switch to cold.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

realistic chart FI for a change, at 216, certainly expect the actual chart to look similar

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, Nick L said:

We're on course for giving the record warm December a run for its money. It's about as far from "normal" as is possible. It's like calling December 2010 normal.

 

Not sure I agree, SW/Westerlies miles more common than N/Easterlies, especially in Dec, maybe not in Sept, April, May

[cheese]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Not sure I agree, SW/Westerlies miles more common than N/Easterlies, especially in Dec, maybe not in Sept, April, May

W/SW winds dominate all year, but not to the extent that we're seeing now. Here, we haven't had a single day with a maximum below 10C. No lows below 2C. Mean temperature of 10C.

Whichever way you cut it, this is far from ordinary. In fact, it's exceptional.

[snowblizzard]

It now looks odds-on that the Christmas period will see roughly the same weather pattern as we've been experiencing for the last few weeks, so unfortunately no white Christmas for most in UK!

I've now got grave concerns that we won't see any significant changes during the first 2/3 weeks of January because, just like the last couple of years, we seem firmly locked into the damn pattern.

I wonder if the unusually cold waters in the North Atlantic have anything to do with this?

So, something quite dramatic will have to occur fairly soon or we will find ourselves well over half way through the winter period.

But, it's encouraging to hear there are some tentative signs of possible stratospheric warming but, as we all know, that doesn't guarantee wintry conditions will necessarily affect the UK!

At the end of the day, although definitely on the mild side in the Southern half of the country, I suppose it's fairly normal winter weather for UK given our position and Atlantic influence.

Here's hoping for a favourable change soon!

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by snowblizzard

[MP-R]

 

30 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

I wonder if the unusually cold waters in the North Atlantic have anything to do with this?

Wouldn't it be ironic that cold water around the UK result in a ridiculously warm winter lol. Puts to bed the theory that they help in delivering colder weather...

[Hocus Pocus]

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

 

Wouldn't it be ironic that cold water around the UK result in a ridiculously warm winter lol. Puts to bed the theory that they help in delivering colder weather...

I never expected it to as it's just a precursor to the overall switch in the AMO, if you compare the cold waters in the Atlantic now to those of the early 80s  they're  poles apart. 

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, MP-R said:

 

Wouldn't it be ironic that cold water around the UK result in a ridiculously warm winter lol. Puts to bed the theory that they help in delivering colder weather...

No. This is all driven by the strongest El Nino on record.  Can we get the strongest Sudden Stratospheric Warming too? 

[stainesbloke]

Well it's only 11 days into winter and in a month that is rarely that cold. Plenty of time for the cold to show up, which I think it will do in the second half of winter. In the meantime, I'll hope for a lot more sunshine and enjoy having a healthier bank balance than normal, due to saving on those heating costs!

[MP-R]

42 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I never expected it to as it's just a precursor to the overall switch in the AMO, if you compare the cold waters in the Atlantic now to those of the early 80s  they're  poles apart. 

Were they colder in the 80s?

[snowblizzard]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

No. This is all driven by the strongest El Nino on record.  Can we get the strongest Sudden Stratospheric Warming too? 

But, we didn't have El Nino 2012/13 or 2013/14 but it was basically the same pattern through both winters?

Edited December 11, 2015 by snowblizzard