Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Ravelin]

We wish you an early Xmas, we wish you an early Xmas.

A blatantly IMBY post, brought to you courtesy of GFS FI.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Ravelin
Added 3rd chart picture.

[knocker]

My first card this morning

Edited December 10, 2015 by knocker

[Froze were the Days]

Unfortunately this super el-nino winter has started as feared, looks like this November/December combo will be the mildest on record and going by this what's to say this won't be the mildest winter on record. I know very early days and you can never rule out a cold snap/spell but over the last 15+ years there have been very few occasions when we've seen a flip from a very mild winter month then to a cold one, 2010/11 started the opposite but not visa versa.

We've had some absurdly warm nights here and the amount of flies and bees I've noticed you'd think we were in September. Personally feel this will be another no show in many southern and central areas for snow this winter...still waiting for our first frost for this month.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

we had a mini freeze starting on boxing day last winter, i wouldnt call the last two winters mild so much as lacking much deep cold.

sorry but thats daft.

how can he or anyone post anything other then what the model outputs are actually showing? there is no sign of anything cold (for more then 48 hours) for most of the uk. are you suggesting posting 'mild' charts shouldnt be posted as they upset 'coldies'?

thats daft

this is a weather forum, and despite the short sighted moaning about what they dont think is 'interesting' there IS plenty of interesting weather as weather encompasses the whole varied range we get here in the uk.

meanwhile theres still no tangible sign of a pattern change, but the noaa charts di suggest high pressure becoming more dominant around the uk for a while. theres still opportunity for that to drift northward and settle over scandinavia - a long shot, but its feasible.

 

Perhaps I didn't mean that entirely seriously?

 

I'm also getting annoyed with one or two of the rain-lovers on here who are welcoming outputs which would see those who have already been affected by flooding affected further just because they (and I notice they live a fair distance from Cumbria) want to see deluges on their own doorstep, and the possibility of endless low pressure systems excites them as makes it more likely that they'd see rain in their area, even though it's the last thing those who've seen enough rain recently to last them a few years never mind a few weeks need.  As a moderate, sensible coldie (i.e. my preference is to have some seasonal weather at this time of year rather than 5-6 months of autumn), if I knew that an area was badly-affected by snow, I'd be happy to see a warm-up even if there had been no snow in my area, for the sake of those who were struggling.

Edited December 10, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[reef]

Ironically its the same cold, snowy easterly weather that many crave that would probably be the best for areas in the north-west to dry out as they often give some of the driest weather in affected locations.

Take a very easterly month like March 2013 for example and you get this:

Pretty much the opposite pattern of rainfall to now.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Unfortunately this super el-nino winter has started as feared, looks like this November/December combo will be the mildest on record and going by this what's to say this won't be the mildest winter on record. I know very early days and you can never rule out a cold snap/spell but over the last 15+ years there have been very few occasions when we've seen a flip from a very mild winter month then to a cold one, 2010/11 started the opposite but not visa versa.

We've had some absurdly warm nights here and the amount of flies and bees I've noticed you'd think we were in September. Personally feel this will be another no show in many southern and central areas for snow this winter...still waiting for our first frost for this month.

agreed many people seem to be ignoring the large el-nino event going on...on this fact alone and its a big factor IMO I cant see any cold weather before February..even then I wouldn't hold my breath..still if you need inspiration look at 82-83..big el-nino very mild Dec and Jan followed by a cold snowy Feb.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

Perhaps I didn't mean that entirely seriously?

 

 

ahhhhh the vagaries of trying to inject nuances into cold hard type!

[Methuselah]

I've just hidden another ad hominem post, as this is not the place for it. Please refrain from making childish and unnecessary gibes, as these will be automatically removed.

[jethro]

6 hours ago, legritter said:

What the GFS gives ,the ECM taketh away .

but  i,v got my fingers crossed ,straws are sat on the table ,sacks of salt piled up in the Wood shed ,off down asda tomorrow for a winter stock up ,dont want to get caught out with no food during christmas freeze and raging Blizzards .crikey black birds sat today counting the berries on the bushes ,what do they know that we dont ,

In my garden I've gone from having the heaviest crop ever of Holly berries to no berries at all in the space of two weeks. Blackbirds have eaten every one. They usually wait for a few weeks yet before munching their way through them, they're on to something, they know something big is brewing......

[Spikecollie]

31 minutes ago, jethro said:

In my garden I've gone from having the heaviest crop ever of Holly berries to no berries at all in the space of two weeks. Blackbirds have eaten every one. They usually wait for a few weeks yet before munching their way through them, they're on to something, they know something big is brewing......

They're fattening up for the Christmas BBQ! A green and mild Christmas...what better way to end the year? 13c at 1200 on Christmas Day - perfect!

[Woollymummy]

No joking , I saw the biggest bumblebee ever feeding in my neighbour's garden yesterday and despite having a cold only wanted a jumper on in the afternoon. In terms of how this relates to the model output, I do feel I now have to accept it as a mild month, and enjoy the fact my woodpile is going to last.

[legritter]

31 minutes ago, jethro said:

In my garden I've gone from having the heaviest crop ever of Holly berries to no berries at all in the space of two weeks. Blackbirds have eaten every one. They usually wait for a few weeks yet before munching their way through them, they're on to something, they know something big is brewing......

yes very strange that our blackbirds are leaving the berries alone [ours are pyracanthia berrys ] also we have a gang of long tail tits passing through several times per day could be 20 or 30 birds ,and i have frogs croaking when usually they are well and truly usually under some log or shed ,all very interesting 

[KDME]

21 minutes ago, legritter said:

yes very strange that our blackbirds are leaving the berries alone [ours are pyracanthia berrys ] also we have a gang of long tail tits passing through several times per day could be 20 or 30 birds ,and i have frogs croaking when usually they are well and truly usually under some log or shed ,all very interesting 

I think they are all just very confused by the warmer temps! lol

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

26 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

No joking , I saw the biggest bumblebee ever feeding in my neighbour's garden yesterday and despite having a cold only wanted a jumper on in the afternoon. In terms of how this relates to the model output, I do feel I now have to accept it as a mild month, and enjoy the fact my woodpile is going to last.

At this rate your firewood will have rotted (unless it's in very dry storage, in which case it'll probably fossilize) before you get round to using it.

[mountain shadow]

10th of December 2015 and only a couple of posts on the 12z.

Says it all really.  Desperate stuff.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144 has the UK trapped under a trough!!! When will this horrible weather stop.

Its all well and good saying its only the 10th of December but its been as wet as an otters pocket since the beginning of November

[Ravelin]

I see the GFS 12z continues with the theme of me seeing snow on Xmas day. Only 15 days left for it to hold the same theme. The moment it stops, it's officially off my Xmas card list.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144 has the UK trapped under a trough!!! When will this horrible weather stop.

Its all well and good saying its only the 10th of December but its been as wet as an otters pocket since the beginning of November

There are some that love this weather and want to see it continue non-stop through until lte March/early April.  What annoys me is that a small percentage of such mild muck-lovers are usually the ones who are the first to moralise on the evils of enjoying wintry weather, due to the accidents and disruption it admiitedly causes, yet, having seen footage of people's homes ruined by flooding seem to take delight in wanting a continuation of the weather set-up that caused it.

Fortunately, according to Weatherweb, the 500mb GFS output suggests something closer to seasonal for the end of the month.

Edited December 10, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[snowray]

Got birds nest in my loft and I can hear them chirping away, saw some birds going into a gap today. mm, is that normal for December I wonder?

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

There are some that love this weather and want to see it continue non-stop through until lte March/early April.  What annoys me is that a small percentage of such mild muck-lovers are usually the ones who are the first to moralise on the evils of enjoying wintry weather, due to the accidents and disruption it admiitedly causes, yet, having seen footage of people's homes ruined by flooding seem to take delight in wanting a continuation of the weather set-up that caused it.

Fortunately, according to Weatherweb, the 500mb GFS output suggests something closer to seasonal for the end of the month.

Im sure nobody is delighting in the misery being inflicted on those in the flood zones Chrisbell.

I have an evil vendetta against that euro high now i want to see it suffer a painful death!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Got birds nest in my loft and I can hear them chirping away, saw some birds going into a gap today. mm, is that normal for December I wonder?

Theres nowt normal about the weather at the moment snowray, its horrrrrrrid

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im sure nobody is delighting in the misery being inflicted on those in the flood zones Chrisbell.

I have an evil vendetta against that euro high now i want to see it suffer a painful death!!!

I didn't say they were, to be fair; my accusation was that they appear to be, by way of cognitive dissonance, separating their love of zonal conditions from the problems in Cumbria.

[Methuselah]

All I can say is that, should Xmas day reach 16C, I will be taking myself for long (short-sleeved) walk in the countryside...Whatever will be, will be?

And aye, in case anyone's wondering, the daffs are doing well here, too!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hows this for a plume SHORTS OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

not that i wear the damn things, but for anyone that does

[Nick L]

It'll be too warm to use outside as a Christmas drinks fridge at this rate...