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Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

These mid rangers are the best out there and programmed to look for the major changes which may impact us, it there were any signs of that for the next 30 days, they would be showing it, and they arent.

 

They're not showing it... Yet...  :D

 

I seem to remember the GFS doing better than then ECM in recent winters with the ECM the one to usually throw out the golden FI charts before changing it's mind. And wasn't the GFS normally skewed to favour the westerlies???

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

theres talk of "That ECM" on the model thread.  Anyone got a copy/link to/of it - I remember is being a corker but would like another look at it

 

Tried searching here but cannot find it

 

Here's the link to the model thread where 'That ECM' run unfolded.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75166-model-output-discussion-12z-04122012/page-42

 

It was lucky that the rest of 2012/13 was pretty decent for cold and snow!

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

I think my comments are being misconstrued.

 

All I'm saying is that when you have agreement between two of the best mid rangers out to 30 days then it is more than probable that they will be right.

 

These mid rangers are the best out there and programmed to look for the major changes which may impact us, it there were any signs of that for the next 30 days, they would be showing it, and they arent.

 

To think I was criticised the other day for writing-off a period of time...at least I made it clear that I was working off instinct rather than evidence, and later apologised as I'd been feeling rather defeatist in general at the time.  You say you've been misconstrued, but you're really only repeating what others have paraphrased you as saying, just using different wording.  If something is "more than probable", it indicats a high degree of confidence; close to near-certainty, in fact, as "probable" is already a fairly string indication.

Edited by cpb
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

GFS 18Z still going for high pressure to build in on 4th! infact further north than 12Z, cold high as well, still not believing GFS

 

00Z may adjust to flatter zonal setup, and full zonal by tomorrow's 12Z

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

06Z a little bit more realistic, getting there, 12Z will go more zonal, and tomorrows GFS will be back to normality showing raging zonality

 

GFS 18Z still going for high pressure to build in on 4th! infact further north than 12Z, cold high as well, still not believing GFS

 

00Z may adjust to flatter zonal setup, and full zonal by tomorrow's 12Z

Keep willing it this hard and you might just get it to change.

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

And when you see a chart like below,model watching becomes academic likes  :-)

 

 

file:///Users/john/Desktop/bracka20101127.gif

 

Ah, 5 years have passed. Where does the time go.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

GFS over the wobble, come into line with ECM, westerlies all the way, but seen worse, at least models modeling the jet far enough north to keep the south dry at times, worse it jet further south for southern areas

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

On the phone to the parents up on the Lancashire/Cumbria coast earlier today, they've had enough of being drenched and blown over and desperate for it to stop. I didn't have the heart to tell them that it might continue for a week or so at least. They did sound desperate, a little bit of high pressure would be a life saver up there.

 

234-777UK.GIF?28-12

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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

I think we can pretty much right December off as a disaster. Yet another mild and wet one.

I'm really getting bad vibes about this winter before it's even started.

Accu weather's extended forecast goes right up to the middle of January now and nothing remotely cold on the horizon up until then.

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Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

I think we can pretty much right December off as a disaster. Yet another mild and wet one.I'm really getting bad vibes about this winter before it's even started.Accu weather's extended forecast goes right up to the middle of January now and nothing remotely cold on the horizon up until then.

Hahaha, hilarious! We have another one who has access to a time machine who can see beyond 5 days. You are worried about the middle of January!! You're  not seriously thinking that models can tell you the weather for most of winter 2015/16 with accuracy. If you believe that then it's just as bad as believing madden and his outlandish claims, just the opposite!!

Edited by John Badrick
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

GFS still a bit behind, ECM 00Z looks like it will be very accurate all the way to 240, GFS seems to have the whole setup too far north

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

I think we can pretty much right December off as a disaster. Yet another mild and wet one.

I'm really getting bad vibes about this winter before it's even started.

Accu weather's extended forecast goes right up to the middle of January now and nothing remotely cold on the horizon up until then.

 

 Disaster?

 

 Heavy snow for Scotland Today,Snow forecast for NI Overnight.

 

 However if you are looking for a two week freeze up Countrywide then yes nothing on that scale appearing in the Models at the Moment.

 

 C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I think we can pretty much right December off as a disaster. Yet another mild and wet one.

I'm really getting bad vibes about this winter before it's even started.

Accu weather's extended forecast goes right up to the middle of January now and nothing remotely cold on the horizon up until then.

 

can't see anything unusual about that, westerlies dominate between late Nov and mid Feb

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

can't see anything unusual about that, westerlies dominate between late Nov and mid Feb

 

 Words fail me

 

 C.S

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

the outlook is pretty likely to be an unsettled regime, from the western quadrant, into mid december. it might last longer, into january, it might not. no one knows when this pattern will change - but change it will. its just a case of when.

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Posted
  • Location: Hinstock Shropshire
  • Location: Hinstock Shropshire

Having been a member of Netweather for a few years now i still haven't got a scooby doo how to read the models. I visit the forums everyday........more so in the winter period, as I love reading up on the search for snow.

However, in our part of he world it is unrealistic to expect 3 months of snow, otherwise what would be the point of Netweather. I'm always optimistic every winter of seeing the white stuff and have a feeling this year will deliver at some point, so there's no need for negative thoughts on something no one can control......not even the models.

Enjoy the fun 😃

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall

My take on things at the moment is,more of the same please.

I say,let's have all this typical,boring,irritating weather now,in nov and even up to the xmas period,loads of it,week after week after week.

Let it rain and blow a hoolie as much as it wants.

 

It has to end at some point,it always does. Now for the IMBY bit(sorry) down here we have as much chance of seeing a decent cold spell this side of xmas as plymouth has of staying top of league 2.

Save the nice East Winds for when they'll make a difference.

 

So,my wish,Atlantic wind and rain till xmas,turning colder around new year,snowmaggedden first half of Jan. If only :)

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

How can the sun only come out twice in 29 days for more than a minute, never even though it was possible to have a month with 27 (make it 28 after today and tomorrows relentless grot) sunless days. This is not Torshavn!! 

Any clear skies have come at night and vanished by 8am.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

When is this rubbish going to end, am sick and tired of grey laden skies & wind and rain. What I wouldn't give to have that northerly back, they might not give any wintry precipitation down here in the West country but they do bring plenty of blue skies & sunshine and cold frosty mornings, absolute heaven over the crud we currently have here!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Second weekend in a row I've seen falling and lying snow. Just goes to prove the saying "there's no such thing as the wrong weather, just the wrong location".

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Probably vitamin D deficient by now.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Second weekend in a row I've seen falling and lying snow. Just goes to prove the saying "there's no such thing as the wrong weather, just the wrong location".

 

Fantastic end of Autumn for Scotland with 2 weekends running of snow falling to low levels at times and considerable snow for higher ground, this looks set to continue as we see a mix of PM/TM air alternating as we head into winter. Have enjoyed the reports and webcams from Scotland. Im staying in Northumberland for a week as of the 7th Dec and will be ready to take a drive upto Scotland for my snowfix if the opportunity arises. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Growing a snow beard will shave when London gets lying snowâ„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸

That could end up as a very long beard....

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