Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

Lets hope the same pattern isn't still there in four weeks time.

 

I could almost guarantee that the pattern won't be there in 4 weeks time!

[Yarmy]

Cohen's erstwhile colleague is not so bullish:

 

https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/668807556836388864

 

 GEFS suggests favorable vertical wave driving pattern in troposphere, but high stability = no sig. PV weakening.

 

 

We'll see, but the next couple of weeks of model output is going to be a hard watch I think. 

Edited November 23, 2015 by Yarmy

[heccygabber]

stuff the snow, bring on the severe gales

[markyo]

Welcoming the milder weather.

Why?? Its winter!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Why?? Its winter!!

 

He likes rain and flooded homes! I like it dry/ settled and sunny,

[markyo]

He likes rain and flooded homes! I like it dry/ settled and sunny,

Dry,cold,gin clear blue sky,the best possible weather there is. Every season should have its own features,wanting just the mild dross is defeating the point of our fantastic climate in this country,you never know what is around the corner. We should count yourselves very lucky.

[Polar Maritime]

These look good. Just a few glowsticks..

[Hotspur62]

As others have alluded there will be no cold start to winter for the UK this year but then apart from December 2010(which was truly exceptional) that is not really a surprise .In fact, looking at the Models and seeing what is happening in North America I think we will certainly be on the mild/very mild side in next 2 weeks with short cold snaps that will only likely give northern hills in England/Scotland tempory coverings. The El Nino it would seem will give N America as a whole a very mild December which most organisations have been predicting for some time. The implications of which I think will keep things fairly fluid across the Atlantic which could give the UK(particulary the NW quadrant of UK) some wet and windy weather. .I will be interested to see if the "Cooler than average North Atlantic" will have any effect on temps this winter( I suspect only minimal) . 

 

So atm not a lot for snow and cold weather fans to get excited about but as we know things can change fairly quickly so do not lose heart if snow is your thing. Whether the snow comes this side of xmas is anyones guess atm but as CC has stated the NH pattern looks promising going forward and if/when the pattern becomes favourable I look forward to the Mod Forum going into its usual flurry of "ramps" and general excitement   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Dry,cold,gin clear blue sky,the best possible weather there is. Every season should have its own features,wanting just the mild dross is defeating the point of our fantastic climate in this country,you never know what is around the corner. We should count yourselves very lucky.

 

Well snow the best of course but here at low level south is fantasy

[Mildcarlisle]

And I am erring on the side of a normal/milder than normal winter with global warming factors not being considered within the models,which will  continue to confound and confuse them going forward if you will likes.

[stainesbloke]

A very disturbed, Atlantic dominated few weeks of weather coming up looking at the latest GFS. Hopefully for my area there'll be quite a lot of mild sunshine in between the storm systems and not weeks of vile grey skies yet again - the weekend made a nice change despite the freezing wind. What I'd really like to see over the Christmas period would be a nice big cold high sat over the UK for a couple of weeks, bringing clear blue sunny skies by day and frosty nights with some freezing fog at times too. Not keen on snow at this time as it just causes way too much chaos and melodrama, better any snow comes after New Year. January/February are the dreariest months of the year by far for me personally, so any interesting weather is a bonus!

[Evening thunder]

Really not liking the FI charts from some models that seems to be becoming a trend..

 

After the first half of November and the boring year so far I cannot take any more of this dreaded Euroslug high monotonous dull no weather nonsense!     

Edited November 24, 2015 by Evening thunder

[knocker]

A very disturbed, Atlantic dominated few weeks of weather coming up looking at the latest GFS. Hopefully for my area there'll be quite a lot of mild sunshine in between the storm systems and not weeks of vile grey skies yet again - the weekend made a nice change despite the freezing wind. What I'd really like to see over the Christmas period would be a nice big cold high sat over the UK for a couple of weeks, bringing clear blue sunny skies by day and frosty nights with some freezing fog at times too. Not keen on snow at this time as it just causes way too much chaos and melodrama, better any snow comes after New Year. January/February are the dreariest months of the year by far for me personally, so any interesting weather is a bonus!

 

That is of course very subjective. Saturday morning in these parts was just about as vile as you can get. Frequent moderate/heavy rain showers with a northerly wind gusting 55mph and a temp of 5C. No good to man nor beast.

[Evening thunder]

A very disturbed, Atlantic dominated few weeks of weather coming up looking at the latest GFS. Hopefully for my area there'll be quite a lot of mild sunshine in between the storm systems and not weeks of vile grey skies yet again - the weekend made a nice change despite the freezing wind. What I'd really like to see over the Christmas period would be a nice big cold high sat over the UK for a couple of weeks, bringing clear blue sunny skies by day and frosty nights with some freezing fog at times too. Not keen on snow at this time as it just causes way too much chaos and melodrama, better any snow comes after New Year. January/February are the dreariest months of the year by far for me personally, so any interesting weather is a bonus!

 

I hope that at least the GFS is right over some other models that seem to have the Euro high ridging too close to us for that.. though I'm not particularly optimistic. 

 

Also looking at your location, I lived in Englefield Green for a year (2013-14)!

Edited November 24, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Hocus Pocus]

That is of course very subjective. Saturday morning in these parts was just about as vile as you can get. Frequent moderate/heavy rain showers with a northerly wind gusting 55mph and a temp of 5C. No good to man nor beast.

Charcter building I would call it, though with our all year round vile climate this Character is looking to emigrate whilst he still can.

[stainesbloke]

I hope that at least the GFS is right over some other models that seem to have the Euro high ridging too close to us for that.. though I'm not particularly optimistic. 

 

Also looking at your location, I lived in Englefield Green for a year (2013-14)!

Were you at the University? Moved to Englefield Green last year from Staines, love it here!

That is of course very subjective. Saturday morning in these parts was just about as vile as you can get. Frequent moderate/heavy rain showers with a northerly wind gusting 55mph and a temp of 5C. No good to man nor beast.

I'd agree with you there lol though here we had heavy (non settling) snow first thing then sunny skies for the rest of the day. The wind wasn't pleasant but out of it the sun felt quite warm. Good to see the sun at any rate, am bored to tears of grey skies.

[mushymanrob]

I could almost guarantee that the pattern won't be there in 4 weeks time!

 

funny... i was thinking the opposite! that i fully expect this pattern to be here in 4 weeks time!

this pattern will be hard to shift, i cant see it going anywhere fast soon. of course it will break, there will be a change, we just dont know when. it could be 2 weeks or 2 months and when it does change, it doesnt mean itll change to a wintry scenario - it might just as easily get very mild.

 

I am really happy with the proper model thread. Lots of informative posts and the whining and trolling of the past appears to have pretty much disappeared. Well played to everyone who posts there and kudos to the mods for keeping it in such good shape too.

 

tbh that process started in the summer, there was a very good summer discussion probably the best ive seen in 10 years. summers used to be empty, but thanks to a handful of top knowlegable posters there was a lot of daily informative posts.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

So it's looking increasingly mild for the start of December - hardly a surprise. At least it's best to get the mild weather out of the way before a more seasonal return to cold weather come mid-December....

Edited November 24, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[MP-R]

funny... i was thinking the opposite! that i fully expect this pattern to be here in 4 weeks time!

this pattern will be hard to shift, i cant see it going anywhere fast soon. of course it will break, there will be a change, we just dont know when. it could be 2 weeks or 2 months and when it does change, it doesnt mean itll change to a wintry scenario - it might just as easily get very mild.

 

 

I think this pattern of swinging between SSW winds and NNW winds is easier to shift that if we just had a roaring westerly the whole time. We've got troughs digging well south to the west of us bringing up very mild air followed by cold air coming down behind them as heights build in behind. There are various ways out of an Atlantic onslaught, much more than the typical autumn fare. Although not ideal, I'm not as despondent as say 2006. Now if a Euro High sets up for more than a day or two then I'll start getting jittery but all signs of that have stayed out in FI for some time now.

[Bristawl Si]

Well, as the usual Winter hopecasting continues on the NW weather forums it looks like Ian F's postings from quite a few weeks back are ringing true re start of Winter.

And he's also posted an update in main Mod Disc thread.

From me it's a poss that Winter *may* start after Xmas. And as Mushy says the forecast December pattern could easily last for weeks; maybe even extend into the NY in my humble opinion.

[legritter]

good morning all ,i was going to have a good moan ,but i,m happy with all the mild mush bartlets ,zonal trains etc etc .

certainly looks like the following two weeks will see usual british  late autumn early winter synoptics ,all models seem to be showing same old BUT we know it can all change and we have all winter left for some fun and games ,last weekends cold spell was good for late autumn although short lived ,Just a reminder gang that Cold air is not far away to our north ,as i said i,m happy with current mild ,would rather have it later when its more use ,   :drinks:of course i mean i,d rather have the cold later than too early .

Edited November 24, 2015 by legritter

[Evening thunder]

Were you at the University? Moved to Englefield Green last year from Staines, love it here!

 

Yep that was it, lived in the western side around Elmbank Avenue area. Of course I never saw snow that winter but it did seem quite sunny between all the rain bands/storms which is supported by the stats.

 

That's why given the choice between the two, I much prefer Atlantic mobility with PM air in the mix to a ridging Abores/Euro-high in winter, much more weather and also sunshine.

[mushymanrob]

I think this pattern of swinging between SSW winds and NNW winds is easier to shift that if we just had a roaring westerly the whole time. We've got troughs digging well south to the west of us bringing up very mild air followed by cold air coming down behind them as heights build in behind. There are various ways out of an Atlantic onslaught, much more than the typical autumn fare. Although not ideal, I'm not as despondent as say 2006. Now if a Euro High sets up for more than a day or two then I'll start getting jittery but all signs of that have stayed out in FI for some time now.

 

 indeed....

my post though, was made after viewing the 500mb anomaly charts, the long wave pattern they show isnt one thatll currently lead to anything changing anytime soon - id have thought they were pretty fixed for now?. imho of course i might be way off mark here, whilst the surface winds are likely to switch between sw/nw the main upper flow is more or less west with hints of pressure rise to our south later in the run.

 

[MP-R]

 indeed....

my post though, was made after viewing the 500mb anomaly charts, the long wave pattern they show isnt one thatll currently lead to anything changing anytime soon - id have thought they were pretty fixed for now?. imho of course i might be way off mark here, whilst the surface winds are likely to switch between sw/nw the main upper flow is more or less west with hints of pressure rise to our south later in the run.

 

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

 

Yeah fair enough. Can't say I know enough about the charts you've posted; did they bare any insight into the weekend's northerly? Personally, I'm not going to look more than a week ahead at a time as I don't think we can safely write off weeks re Euro High / Atlantic domination in the UK when the PV is such a mess.

[Continental Climate]

So can we write off december yet? To me the pattern looks pretty entrenched!! Sadly we have been here before on many occasions in many years. I am not writing off winter but to me we better hope that late January and Feb deliver!!