Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

384 on 12Z beast from the east knocking on the door, fantasy chart, as if it's gonna happen, don't tell express for heaven's sake

[mushymanrob]

*titter*

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

*titter*

 

no sno.jpg

 

that came up on my facebook

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Reading the MOD thread, I'm utterly confused.  We're either going to go cold again later this week, or tropical maritime air is going to come back, with temperatures above average. 

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts suggest the next 10 days or so will see predominantly Pm type air with only very brief incursions of Tm air. It is possible that Scotland will stay in Pm type air through that period. It could also be very windy at times with quite deep lows.

[mushymanrob]

that came up on my facebook

 

thats where i pinched it from! (my newsfeed obvs)

 

The anomaly charts suggest the next 10 days or so will see predominantly Pm type air with only very brief incursions of Tm air. It is possible that Scotland will stay in Pm type air through that period. It could also be very windy at times with quite deep lows.

 

thats what i read out of them too john, and indeed the ops seem to suggest more pm the tm air - but on the telly this morning peter gibbs is showing a huge 'dome of mild air' coming around the northern flank of the azores high "temperatures picking up later in the week" . its odd because the chart he used seems to have amplified the high greater then the anoms.

[Milhouse]

This is more like it. Much lighter winds than yesterday making it feel more pleasant out and about with a bit of hazy sunshine poking through occasionally. Still cold but its a nice type of cold, not the cold that smacks you in the face like yesterday.

[johnholmes]

thats where i pinched it from! (my newsfeed obvs)

 

 

thats what i read out of them too john, and indeed the ops seem to suggest more pm the tm air - but on the telly this morning peter gibbs is showing a huge 'dome of mild air' coming around the northern flank of the azores high "temperatures picking up later in the week" . its odd because the chart he used seems to have amplified the high greater then the anoms.

 

I suspect that is because the anomaly charts are mean charts and given what they are showing, the average of a touch north of west in the 6-15 day period, then there will be occasions when Tm air comes in just as behind major surface lows a more Am type airflow.

What the indication is, to me, there will be no major cold spell, say more than 2-3 days nor any marked mild spell again  more than 48 hours. I may be wrong of course! The overall average to me looks like about average temperatures to a touch below normal over the 15 day period.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

The early 12Z output confirms what some on here have been expecting after the brief weekend cold snap - a return to a mobile pattern with the south enjoying milder conditions and the north stormier weather.

 

It's really no surprise - 2009/10 was the anomaly not the norm. There is very often a very mild spell at the beginning of December - 18c can be reached in places like North Wales given a Foehn-type set up from a long fetch SW'ly - and while it's too early to be calling that kind of weather, it's looking likely.

 

None of this of course rules out cold weather later in the winter - indeed, almost all winters have "mild spells" which can last weeks or months - it's the default pattern for the UK. We often speak of "cold winters" but it's the remarkable few days of cold within a three month period we remember. Everyone talks about December 2010 and rightly so but who talks about January 2011 ?

 

To sound downbeat about a winter which hasn't even started is the height of foolishness and while everyone wants snow at Christmas, you're more likely to get it the other side.

 

Plenty of people are calling a mild first half of winter and I understand that but unlike 2014-15, I'm hopeful (but can only be that) that as get further into January and especially February, the zonality will end and will be replaced by something more amplified, Now, that could be an anticyclonic spell (inversion, ice days but no snow) or it could be what most on here want. Indeed, I would go further and argue could, as in 2013, have a very slow start to spring - there are some stats somewhere about the likelihood of snow lying in March against December.

 

It's frustrating for those who want cold and snow but you'll never get three months of storm force easterlies and minus 20 uppers (you might have done in the last Ice Age) in the UK. Patience might be rewarded with winter weather in mid-January and through February and perhaps a long slow start to spring. 

[Lincs Observation]

Just spotted on FB in relation to snow in Denmark i bet you all wish it was like this in the UK, I know i do enjoy!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/UK-Snow-Updates-For-Winter-828701050494545/?fref=nf

 

LO

Edited November 22, 2015 by Lincs Observation

[loopydreamer]

I like to see snow but I'm more of a mildie ... I love the wild weather...Severe gales and driving rain! ..Hoping to see this soon.

[Severe Blizzard]

Certainly not happy about the GFS for the next 2 weeks.

 

Although a snow and severe cold weather lover - being realistic, I don't expect a repeat of December 2010 in the next 4-5 weeks.

 

However, I loathe drizzle, wind and zonal weather such as we have suffered this month with below average rainfall and annoying long periods of drizzle and light rain which always seem to coincide with the only time on the one day a week (Tuesday) when I get to have a chance to have a countryside bike ride.

 

This was a major annoyance last winter and I am getting sick to my back teeth of this irritating zonal dross already where it seems the weather has just picked up where last winter left off.
I already rate 2015 as the nastiest, most vile year ever experienced (with the exception of some reasonable weather during the two separate Cornwall holiday weeks). No snow, no thunderstorms as the Guildford area missed all the summer events, and just mediocre rain with high pressure close enough to the area to inhibit proper rain but not close enough to yield some decent dry and sunnier conditions..

 

I am so desperate for some decent ride weather, I'll probably be shot for saying this, but I am getting to the point of wishing for a rerun of 1988/1989 or even 1991/1992. I just want to see some decent dry weather and lose this incessant vile drizzle and zonal dross.  

 

A regime of being stormy with worthwhile rain like winter 2013/14 (proper rainfall, winter thunderstorms and INTERESTING conditions) or long dry periods with the Bartlett High close enough to inhibit all rain except for a short heavy shower on the occasional passing cold front is the preference if this zonal theme has to persist even more (winter 1988/1989). Alternatively, contrasting conditions with an anticyclonic theme with frosty and foggy weather such as winter 1991/1992 would be a welcome change from this extremely boring, repetitive and unpleasant zonal muck. Anticyclonic benign weather used to be classed as 'boring' and was dreaded in winter month's, if the Atlantic set-up can't produce anything better than below average monthly rainfall with endless boring mediocre conditions, then the latter can be defined as the new 'boring' and the benign weather is most welcome! Benign and quiet conditions can be 'filled' with activities such as cycling which will be enjoyed. The enjoyment of these activities are not possible with the dross suffered at present.  

 

However, if I have to be grounded and cannot ride (riding being the only pleasure I get at this time of year) then a rerun of the severe Decembers of 1981, 2010 or even 1938 would be welcome!    

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I don't know where the radio presenters these days get their information (presumably the Daily Express ) as this morning they were banging on about the forthcoming Winter being the worst in a century! Why is it that we have one mornings frost and all of sudden we are in for the most severe Winter  Won't they ever learn... 

[MP-R]

No different from a hot day meaning we're going to have the hottest summer yet lol.

[solarcycle]

I am really happy with the proper model thread. Lots of informative posts and the whining and trolling of the past appears to have pretty much disappeared. Well played to everyone who posts there and kudos to the mods for keeping it in such good shape too.

[mountain shadow]

Pretty dire output for the foreseeable for cold and snow.

 

Whilst the omni present Siberian High remains robust, all it serving to do is squeeze the Polar Vortex towards Greenland and the big purple Winter destroyer returns, no sign of it ridging West and forcing low pressuer to undercut.

 

Lets hope the same pattern isn't still there in four weeks time.

[Yarmy]

Pretty dire output for the foreseeable for cold and snow.

 

Whilst the omni present Siberian High remains robust, all it serving to do is squeeze the Polar Vortex towards Greenland and the big purple Winter destroyer returns, no sign of it ridging West and forcing low pressuer to undercut.

 

Lets hope the same pattern isn't still there in four weeks time.

 

Yep, no doubt about it. Still, early days and we can hope that somewhere down the line the Pacific ridge and Siberian high deliver something more interesting as suggested by Cohen and the like. 

 

Underwhelming synoptics can change rapidly (obligatory 62/63 chart):

 

[mountain shadow]

Very true Yarmy, but I always get the fear when the Purple minion sets up shop over Greenland.

[Yarmy]

Mentioning Cohen above, he was in full ramp mode yesterday:

 

 

 

Nice looking precursor pattern to a polar vortex weakening event on last night's Euro. Dreaming of a white xmas?

 

 

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/668467282008494080

 

 

(Just noticed he replied to Vizzy of this parish, too)

Edited November 23, 2015 by Yarmy

[mountain shadow]

Cohen is a US forecaster primarily though.

GFS 12z is horror show this pm.

[SLEETY]

dreadful gfs hope this isnt the new trend,because these type of weather patterns can take weeks to shift ,no chance of anything like a decent cold spell for least next two weeks ,the met office seasonal model been spot on so far,hope it pick up on a colder signal soon

[Liam J]

Don't want to use the 'B' word but it's not far off on the GFS....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

dreadful gfs hope this isnt the new trend,because these type of weather patterns can take weeks to shift ,no chance of anything like a decent cold spell for least next two weeks ,the met office seasonal model been spot on so far,hope it pick up on a colder signal soon

 

could be worse (south) this particular run does not look that stormy or wet, not bone dry but not dreaded heavy rain/gales still hoping for a trend for the highs to move closer

 

Scott, trouble with that is, we lose the sunshine and light winds

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Praying for it not to be yet ANOTHER crap winter, i'm not writing it off btw just praying.

[Richard2901]

Appalling excuse for a cold snap. Barely managed to get below freezing at all which is just shocking. -0.8C low compare with -1.9C achieved in May. Looks like this horrific month will have the, now customary, one air frost rather than seven that you used to expect from November

 

The fact that this month had an Arctic blast unlike 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2014 yet still managed the same solitary, barely below freezing, frost makes it all the worse. Just disgusting the lack of cold nights. Had it not been for this pitiful arctic whimper the lowest would be only 1.6C this month and over a fortnight passed without it even dropping below 3C

 

Never felt more despondent going into winter with the ridiculous lack of cold nights, and the inability for the temperature to drop at night regardless of the set-up, making me think the coming winter will be so bad that we may even get a completely frost free month.