Ireland Regional Weather Chat - 20/11/2015 Onward.

[ronan]

13 minutes ago, Pomeroysnow said:

Is it the one Sperrin posted this morning?

Thats the one Pom. Not sure where i would find this.

[mountain shadow]

ECM is in.....2010 potential! !!

[ronan]

EMC = Boom!! Lol. Excuse the ramping from me but with cross model agreement we are getting into the reliable time frame!! Snow in the north from as early as Sunday then Tuesday is when the fun starts!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Wow I nearly feel giddy trying to keep up with that run, creamathon tonight on the model thread!!! 

[mountain shadow]

Potential snow from Monday until…………………..who knows.

I feel its safe to tell your friends and family….Winter is coming.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Dare I tempt fate and buy that toboggan now..... It's not for me off course... 

[booferking]

We are in for something special guys this looks like being rather

Edited January 6, 2016 by booferking

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Potential snow from Monday until…………………..who knows.

I feel its safe to tell your friends and family….Winter is coming.

I already have go for it haha

[booferking]

Mountain Shadow i would love to see the ECM snow prediction charts tonight i sense an upgrade than last night.

[Weegaz]

I'm still waiting on the eastenders theme tune kicking in and for us to miss this opportunity

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Comon Weegaz, positivity, put it out there bring it back 

[Rocheydub]

I'm now 90% sure this will last 4 days or more now, if the G HP cell does set up, as per the post 180 hr models say, this will become entrenched for 2 weeks!

 

Tomorrow will confirm if I fully believe. I told my kids just there at bed time... Probably a bad idea, but his face lit up like the tree we just took down!

 

looking forward to this now!

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, booferking said:

Mountain Shadow i would love to see the ECM snow prediction charts tonight i sense an upgrade than last night.

It has been posted on the main model forum. Pretty much the whole of GB and I will see something. 

[Rocheydub]

Hate to be a party pooper... But there will likely be downgrades of this. I mean, it can hardly upgrade... And we know it won't stay the same!!!

 

I do of course hope I'm wrong!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Probably Rochey, I would still expect some ups and downs, but we May enjoy the excitement, God knows we will moan if there are downgrades lol

[Weegaz]

Just looked at the radar, some amount of water coming!!

Looks like there could be snow lying in NI but Sunday afternoon. Read a post that costal areas in the north should do well for snow, could get a good dumping for a few on here

[Downburst]

It's some block that and I must say hats off to GP. I'd caution mentioning snow at work, best to say very cold and icy and leave the snow to 24 hours out,neven then you'd be wrong. 3 models now in agreement, not a huge amount of variables once it gets going so not long to wait, perhaps Saturday 12z before we can be certain of the cold, snow in a northerly outside north coast who knows. November 2010 here we go. Get lagging your pipes guys

[Su Campu]

Quote

Nice cold thickness advection looks set to continue after the end of the 12Z ECM run. Strong NNE flow sets up, pulling down some proper cold air, with 500-1000 thicknesses of down to 516 dam. This particular setup would be conducive for polar lows, where we need at least a 43 °C difference between the sea surface and 500 hPa, but this would be nearer to Scotland in this case.

 

Quote

 

 

[Rocheydub]

Some astonishing rain here for the last 2 hours. I'm up to 10.5mm in that time, absolutely chucking it down. I'd imagine there will be some localised flooding out of this. 

Just a respite from all this model talk to the here and now!

[bobbarley]

2 hours ago, Weegaz said:

Just looked at the radar, some amount of water coming!!

Looks like there could be snow lying in NI but Sunday afternoon. Read a post that costal areas in the north should do well for snow, could get a good dumping for a few on here

I wouldn't be as confident regarding the snow on the north coast, probably a few miles in land but I've a horrible feeling right on the coast with a North wind could be sleet.

Later on if winds don't come directly off the sea might be better

[Abyss]

 

The fax chart have the 528 Dam Line almost covering the whole of Ireland at T94

And a straight Northerly by T120

 

Looks pretty good to me 

Edited January 6, 2016 by -Bomber-

[mountain shadow]

The 10.40 BBC forecast had a snow symbol for Sunday.  Going to be a good week. 

[Su Campu]

We need 522 dam or lower here for a good shot at snow.  528 just doesn't usually cut it unless there is cold already in place. 

 

In any case the 850-1000 thickness is more important. I find 1290 m or lower pretty much guarantees us snow.

[Abyss]

Met office- "Weather charts commonly show contour lines of 1,000-500 hPa thickness, which represent the depth (in decametres, where 1 dam = 10 m) of the layer between the 1,000 hPa and 500 hPa pressure levels. Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK." I said almost covering all of Ireland by t96 so I'm sure it will decrease the further North you are

Edited January 7, 2016 by -Bomber-

[Abyss]

NI Met update 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:
Dry, bright start Saturday but turning cloudy with rain, sleet or snow. Sunny spells and scattered wintry showers on Sunday and Monday and feeling cold with northerly winds developing.

Updated at: 0246 on Thu 7 Jan 2016