Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[lorenzo]

Atlantic back with a vengeance - tomorrow looking miserable.

Still at yellow warned but wouldn't surprise me to see some areas go to amber.

The jet really is something this weekend, talk about dialled in - wedged between the Azores nuisance and the transferring vortex the weather cranking up a gear.

Cold air making in roads on the latest fax updates, what a scrambled mess at noon friday , try following the 528d line through that maze of lows, troughs and fronts.

Faxchart FI at 120 sees the cold air dig down across the UK approaching the South coast, quite progressive.

A lively NW with a stratospheric scorpion whip, satellite will be good to watch streamers and 'blobs' on Saturday.

ECM view on the cold incursion.

And a few from the GFS tonight.

 

Something to keep a good eye on this week as things move into meso model view.. and for the fun of it, GFS Snaw prediction.. caveats galore etc etc.

 

So, when are we all going to the pub !

 

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2016 by lorenzo
Adding correct Fax Chart & Snaw chart

[edo]

52 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Christ you don't want to come here - the Highlands Snowless Capital.  I'd have thought a pished up snowball fight would be part of it?

Surely though for all of us, location is key due to time constraints.  I've spent this evening doing timings of various tasks for a tender and it makes me realise what a slave I am to the clock.  Who invented the sodding things?

Quite HC.... I'm on the other side scoring tenders and constantly dealing with the beuracratic paper mountain that goes with it....I long for the days of 3 quotes and cheapest wins 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by edo

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Never a good sign when you can't see Scotland on the radar. Or Ireland for that matter.

[GraemeB]

Just driven from Stirling to Glasgow - that is not very nice driving conditions - the amount of surface water makes for some scary episodes.

With relation the the GFS and the snow "event" on Saturday, to be fair to it, it's had that modelled since Saturday/Sunday so is clearly sticking to it's guns.   Still think Friday night going into Saturday, something a bit special is on the cards (not really basing that on anything scientific, more just a rumbling in the tummy and intuition...oh and not necessarily snow either)

Be safe outside if you're driving.

[101_North]

Going to be very late for work. Woke up, heard the wind and rain lashing the window, thought "scatter cushion to that" and had a wee extra snooze. Blind panic about to erupt now though!

[GrangemouthBairn]

Just awful outside. Heavy and almost horizontal rain accompanied by strong winds. Probably worse than any of the named storms in terms of actual conditions. Was 7.6C at 7.15 after a min of 5.7C

[lorenzo]

Yep drive safely folks it's very wet, rubbish visibility and surface water , as bad as it gets really.

[101_North]

In a winter of foul mornings this one's in first place!

[moffatross]

1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

Never a good sign when you can't see Scotland on the radar. Or Ireland for that matter.

It's proper p1sh in Moffat this morning. Like there's a thousand firemen outside the hoose aiming their hoses at the walls and windows.

[Guest]

11 hours ago, edo said:

I will be honest if I tell the wife I'm going away a weekend as meeting up with a load of Internet friends I met on a weather site she will either think I've lost my marbles or I'm up to no good....it's a no for me..

 

I look fwd to all the crazy tales though weekend at HC's is the new weekend at bernie's 

OK, so we're meeting up at your place then? That solves all your problems in one go  

Plus you're relatively central for everyone to get to, no point making it down here or up at HC's bit? 

[GraemeB]

Can we all not just have the Kilties meet up in the MT ?

God knows, most of them could do with some cheering up **

 

 

** anyone south of the Midlands that is.

[Ravelin]

Probably not as bad as elsewhere, but it's still horribly wet and windy here. Temp around 5-6C so that's a positive of sorts compared to the 12-13C at the same time yesterday.

Not sure about the models, possibly trending the right way for cold but still looks touch and go for anything resembling snow at lower levels. Fri into Sat is a possibility and Tue/Wed next week looks on the cooler side currently (but will likely change).

Edited January 26, 2016 by Ravelin

[frogesque]

Very nasty in this part of Fife today.  Cold, grey and driving rain. Stay safe everyone.

[Northern Strath]

Rank as hell oot, left this morning with 3c and driving rain, similar story inverness way. Topsy turvy days ahead but interesting none the less and certainly scope for snow

49 minutes ago, GraemeB said:

Can we all not just have the Kilties meet up in the MT ?

God knows, most of them could do with some cheering up **

 

 

** anyone south of the Midlands that is.

Some posters in the MT should have a wee button beside their name that plays Barber's 'Adagio for strings' as you scroll down the post.. January's not even done!!

[Hairy Celt]

Erm, just a tad damp and breezy here. Not complaining though, sounds horrendous most places.

Re the 'winter's over' posts... Bear in mind that if you're at low elevation and several hundred miles further south, snowy weather can be hard to come by - used to be for me, even 25 years ago. So seeing the winter months slip by snowlessly can be really crap!  If they get one snowy event per winter these days, they're doing well.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Hairy Celt

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

A good day for generating 'S***e Weather Energy ' (© Scotland) anyway.

Edited January 26, 2016 by scottish skier

[November13]

Aye pish the noo....Marginal snow event late Wed and certainly on Saturday morning.  Something to look forward to.

[Northernlights]

Seems HC and   I  live in another world.   warm ,sunny intervels, blue skies and currently 12c but there is a blustery south wind. Shirt sleeves bedding the cattle this morning !! Dust blowing on the farm road.   Would easily share it with everyone if I could .

First  snowdrops out in the garden yesterday daffs only just breaking the surface.

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by Northernlights

[mistyqueen]

Horizontal rain this morning and we had to make a trip into Portree. We had a loch in place of a front garden which has now thankfully disappeared. Rather breezy, but rain calming down. Builder still on roof hammering away for all he's worth. Discovered some new drips this morning, rain just sheeting in and I'm fast running out of pots and pans and dry towels! Is Friday going to be as bad as some forecasts are saying? Met Office only has a rain warning out but according to one forecast we could hit 82mph early Friday morning. That's well dodgy and off course I'm rather concerned that the roof may not bold up to a battering like that!

[Colsuth]

13.7 c here.  Sunny but blustery.  Went for walk with the full winter gear on- doh!

[November13]

I've lowered my expectations for this winter. Instead of seeking a long 14 day cold spell. I will take the scraps of comfort from 1 day of snow then 4 days of rain. So this week some snow could fall on Wednesday evening. Then rain again on Friday. Then a cold late Friday and Saturday through to Sunday evening. so we could have 2 days of lying snow this weekend.

[moffatross]

1 hour ago, mistyqueen said:

Horizontal rain this morning and we had to make a trip into Portree. We had a loch in place of a front garden which has now thankfully disappeared. Rather breezy, but rain calming down. Builder still on roof hammering away for all he's worth. Discovered some new drips this morning, rain just sheeting in and I'm fast running out of pots and pans and dry towels! Is Friday going to be as bad as some forecasts are saying? Met Office only has a rain warning out but according to one forecast we could hit 82mph early Friday morning. That's well dodgy and off course I'm rather concerned that the roof may not bold up to a battering like that!

Had various impromptu burns running off the field and farmyard through our garden today but just left with the usual standing water. I've spent 100's of hours on the windows and woodwork to prevent hosed rain ingress and we're mostly water free in the house today.

Re. Friday, both the ECM (look up your location on yr.no) and the Met Office are pretty relaxed about the wind potential. Never say never, but the GFS does tend to over blow the max wind speeds.

[peborant]

3 hours ago, November13 said:

I've lowered my expectations for this winter. Instead of seeking a long 14 day cold spell. I will take the scraps of comfort from 1 day of snow then 4 days of rain. So this week some snow could fall on Wednesday evening. Then rain again on Friday. Then a cold late Friday and Saturday through to Sunday evening. so we could have 2 days of lying snow this weekend.

There's to hoping haha although looks unlikely at my slightly lower altitude. 

Temperatures are all over the place, from 13 to 3 then up to 12 today now down to 9...and yes we'll see what cracks tomorrow night, maybe a flake or two are not out of the question. 

 

[Northern Strath]

9 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Re the 'winter's over' posts... Bear in mind that if you're at low elevation and several hundred miles further south, snowy weather can be hard to come by - used to be for me, even 25 years ago. So seeing the winter months slip by snowlessly can be really crap!  If they get one snowy event per winter these days, they're doing well.

Sounds rough HC. Always nice to see fellow snow fans prosper whatever the latitude, though maybe the consecutive snowy winters of 09&10 didn't help with raising unrealistic expectations for a few

What a brutal day, a normally beautiful view up the firth from where I was working was non-existent, Beauly lost under a dark shroud all day. Late tonight/Tomorrow looking interesting for snow in a few spots. Currently 6.8c

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by Northern Strath

[snowidea]

Horrible, horrible scary drive down the M9 to work in Edinburgh this morning. So many places where the water pools and forms small ponds, especially in the fast lane. It was a toss up between staying behind a massive lorry, spraying me liberally or risking an overtake and aquaplaning along in the fast lane, while being tailgated by a "special person" (i.e. someone far more important than me who needed to get past me so he could tailgate the car in front). I switched between the two techniques and managed not to kill myself or anyone else but it took me 1.30 to do what's normally a 40 min journey. 

Rant over, did someone say it might snow on Saturday?