Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[LomondSnowstorm]

With the Hurricane near the Azores, the modelling is all over the place for the next few days, which includes the details of how far east any front will get on Saturday night. In some respects though it's win-win - either a big snowfall on Saturday night followed by (probably) a breakdown snow to rain event late Sunday or the block is putting up more resistance than first thought and there's a decent chance of either a bigger frontal event on Monday/Tuesday or just a continuation of the cold. That's not to say we're guaranteed a major snowfall before it turns milder but there are at least multiple ways that could come about.

Of course the GFS above shows how we can just about miss both - the intial front doesn't get very far east then the main one on Monday hits at a poor angle for keeping the surface cold pool in place.

Edited January 15, 2016 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

A bit of sleet now  and conditions underfoot very icy currently 1.8c

[Ravelin]

Well I was out and about on a general Kemnay->Aberdeen->Peterculter->Westhill->Kemnay->Dyce loop this morning as that band of precipitation came through. It was a real mix of rain, sleet and occasionally very wet snow. Temps varied around 1 or 2C according to my car. Nothing even attempting to lie, just too wet, both the ground and the stuff falling. Not even sure it's lying higher up on the low hills to the West, didn't look like it.

Don't you just hate it, it's Jan, we're supposed to be in a bit of a 'cold pool', the showers are coming in on a Northerly and we still can't get falling, never mind lying snow.

[NUT]

When you have the sun beating down on you it actually don't feel that bad out there today but the inevitable when it gets dark in a few hours and cold air...................last night was cold think tonight might be even colder

[Altostratus]

44 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Well I was out and about on a general Kemnay->Aberdeen->Peterculter->Westhill->Kemnay->Dyce loop this morning as that band of precipitation came through. It was a real mix of rain, sleet and occasionally very wet snow. Temps varied around 1 or 2C according to my car. Nothing even attempting to lie, just too wet, both the ground and the stuff falling. Not even sure it's lying higher up on the low hills to the West, didn't look like it.

Don't you just hate it, it's Jan, we're supposed to be in a bit of a 'cold pool', the showers are coming in on a Northerly and we still can't get falling, never mind lying snow.

Disappointing isn't it! We need a clean northerly flow as this slack flow is doing us no good whatsoever. I went home for lunch and one of the heavier bursts gave a dusting of snow, but nothing but rain/sleet in the city, as expected. 

[heccygabber]

Fingers crossed for some snow in the central belt tomorrow

[Kayemill]

6 minutes ago, heccygabber said:

Fingers crossed for some snow in the central belt tomorrow

Well there is currently no Warning from the Meto for it, so that ups our chances no end

[peborant]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

Well I was out and about on a general Kemnay->Aberdeen->Peterculter->Westhill->Kemnay->Dyce loop this morning as that band of precipitation came through. It was a real mix of rain, sleet and occasionally very wet snow. Temps varied around 1 or 2C according to my car. Nothing even attempting to lie, just too wet, both the ground and the stuff falling. Not even sure it's lying higher up on the low hills to the West, didn't look like it.

Don't you just hate it, it's Jan, we're supposed to be in a bit of a 'cold pool', the showers are coming in on a Northerly and we still can't get falling, never mind lying snow.

Why there's a reason why for eight to twelve weeks straight we are the only place above 55N with no snow lying! Grrrrr 

Dollar's nae doing bad these days, today min was -1.9 at the rooftop so probably -4 / -5 really. Got the sensor back ¡finally! so i might run a wee experiment tonight to contrast the graphs rooftop vs grass, it'll be a good night for it as well. 

Sparkling sunshine like our John just said on the beebs. Surprising potential for a good snow event on Saturday/Sunday which I would be pleased with. Snaw that fell Wed into Thurs has barely melted after over 13h of direct sunlight. Really having mental orgasms thinking of the effect of Scottish snaw on albedo stuff. That makes cold last longer, so probably if we get a good blanket of say 4 5 inches on sunday cold might last until late midweek easy. We'll see. 

Current temp 2.9 sensor 4.4 rooftop. Classic. 

[Hairy Celt]

Dull, grey, cold and some sleet earlier.  Thin cover of snow slowly becoming thinner and patchier.

[Colsuth]

Just a rain shower this morning. Temperature peaked at 4.5 C and currently 4.2.

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon all! Yesterday, Baltic, clear, sunny, tiny wee shower of graupelly stuff. Today, light cloud, a wee touch of rain and Baltic! Seems that even Skye will get a touch of snow over the weekend. We'll see!

[peborant]

I fail to understand the existence of the word 'baltic' for temperatures that largely go above 0 during the day and barely fall under minus five/ten in most inhabited places, more so in the west coast of Scotland which is as far as you could get from actual baltic weather this side and latitude of the planet xD

Sensor 2.2 / School has now peaked at 4.7 interesting...

Edited January 15, 2016 by peborant

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, peborant said:

I fail to understand the existence of the word 'baltic' for temperatures that largely go above 0 during the day and barely fall under minus five/ten in most inhabited places, more so in the west coast of Scotland which is as far as you could get from actual baltic weather this side and latitude of the planet xD

Sensor 2.2 / School has now peaked at 4.7 interesting...

Good point about "Baltic". I wonder if there's anywhere in the world that when it rains for more than 12 hours it's called "Scotland" weather? 

[SW Saltire]

2 hours ago, Stormeh said:

Euro4 looks not bad...

 

 

The latest GFS doesn't look to good...

 

I think we will just have to keep an eye on the radar closer to the time to see what is going to happen.

When is the GFS ever correct? It really is Scrooge...

the high res Aperge model (has largely backed the UKMO in recent days, much to our joy) has performed very well and predicts decent prospects for Monday etc.

latest BBC graphics showed snow moving in tomorrow and well into the central belt. 

I think it is very much up in the air, however Glasgow, Ayrshire, Lanarkshire and north of Glasgow etc should do well. Sods law i'm driving up to Stirling so might miss snow here in Dumfries but i think i'll see snow up in Stirling in the coming days... The met (with great uncertainty) have said 'chance of disruptive snowfall next week' so there must be a good chance!

 

edit: very much agree Ravelin. Was very cold this morning, light snow fell but melted upon impact. I was like wtf....

[Hairy Celt]

12 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Good point about "Baltic". I wonder if there's anywhere in the world that when it rains for more than 12 hours it's called "Scotland" weather? 

I'd never heard it till about 10 years ago when some weegie used it for any weather where he had to do his coat up. A pointless addition to the language. Discuss.

[peborant]

Well in all fairness ARPEGE was the only model that predicted the fiasco for some areas in the southern Central Belt much to our benefit against every other weather model so I am confident that we might be in for a good covering if ARPEGE thinks so. Temperatures should NOT be an issue this time around. 

And as for the 'Scottish weather' matter, well at least I can vouch we don't say that in Spanish or Catalan!

Sensor 1.8 / School 4.6 (I'm dreading to think that's our 'official' records)

 

[November13]

When people in Tallin get sleet that melts on impact they say :"Scotland out there".

[peborant]

Yes but I am sure Scotland only visits them until early December at worst whereas we invoke Baltic weather throughout winter to no avail! 

School 4.1 / Sensor 2.0  Clearly the rooftop is cooling off...

[Cheggers]

My Storm Glass says YES to snaw.

[spindrift1980]

30 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

I'd never heard it till about 10 years ago when some weegie used it for any weather where he had to do his coat up. A pointless addition to the language. Discuss.

I first heard the term 'Baltic' in the mid 90s, used by a school classmate when standing around on a freezing day on a muddy school playing field, trying to fend off hypothermia while dressed in shorts and T-shirts during one of our joyous PE classes.  Maybe some lexicographer out there can trace its origins? - if Susie Dent, for example, was to take an interest, I'd gladly help with her enquiries

It doesn't really make sense since the Baltic is one of the 'milder' parts of the old Soviet Bloc in winter - Siberian might be more appropriate.  'Baltic' is quite a satisfying word to say though!!

I find cold, dry air much more tolerable than the damp chill that Scotland specialises in. I suppose Scotland isn't that cold in global terms, but when you've got the winds factored in, and the damp air, you do need a word to describe it.  A good old Scots word is  'cauldrife' - http://www.dsl.ac.uk/entry/snd/cauldrife

Edited January 15, 2016 by spindrift1980

[NUT]

Still fairly light but you can feel the chilliness already. Going to be a cold one

[peborant]

According to a quick google search it roots in the Latin word for the inhabitants of near the Baltic sea, the 'Balthaes', and was then incorporated in the English language circa 1600, not surprisingly as some winters around those years must have truly been Baltic. Ahhh the dreammmmm...

School finally upping the game at 3.6, sensor has gone in the right direction too, back to 1.8C

The sun has finally effed off and the ground's already solid frost, let the fun and games begin for the next 17 hours of cooling. 

 

Edit: snow potential downgrade on the metO website. Shall I take that as a good sign? Haha. 

Edited January 15, 2016 by peborant

[RedShift]

15 minutes ago, spindrift1980 said:

I find cold, dry air much more tolerable than the damp chill that Scotland specialises in. I suppose Scotland isn't that cold in global terms, but when you've got the winds factored in, and the damp air, you do need a word to describe it.  A good old Scots word is  'cauldrife' - http://www.dsl.ac.uk/entry/snd/cauldrife

My Dad used 'snell' to describe cold - http://caledonianmercury.com/2010/12/06/useful-scots-word-snell/0012424

[November13]

Snell wind my dad says that one to this day! He says pronounces it Shnell though!

[Northern Strath]

Frequent snow showers here through the first half of the day but they've subsided now. Maxed at 0c and on the way back down at -0.4c now

"Baltic" is indeed used a lot, always liked "As cold as a witches t*t" though it's a bit of a mouthful (now now behave)

*my father also uses "Snell"