Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[NorthernRab]

^ not to mention that the fabled polar low can develop in such setups! 

[Guest]

I hope I am wrong but we usually get to this point and then everything implodes between now and Friday's 12z runs. One day the dreaded implosion has got to not happen, fingers crossed it's Friday 8th Jan 2016  

[mistyqueen]

Well, if snow is forecast I can guarantee it won't fall here! Don't mind a nice bit of frost and sunshine though, I'd be happy with that!

[cscrim]

21 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I hope I am wrong but we usually get to this point and then everything implodes between now and Friday's 12z runs. One day the dreaded implosion has got to not happen, fingers crossed it's Friday 8th Jan 2016  

fully agree Catch, no point trying to figure things out in model thread either, as despite the countdown time, already there are a lot of IMBY posts.

[Hairy Celt]

21 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I hope I am wrong but we usually get to this point and then everything implodes between now and Friday's 12z runs. One day the dreaded implosion has got to not happen, fingers crossed it's Friday 8th Jan 2016  

Yeah and then all hell lets loose in the MT.  You know it's going to go tits up at some point but oh no, that couldn't happen this time...

[Hairy Celt]

8 minutes ago, cscrim said:

fully agree Catch, no point trying to figure things out in model thread either, as despite the countdown time, already there are a lot of IMBY posts.

Lol just keep hitting the 'report' button, it's better than scowling at the screen!

[Birkhill saints]

So glad you guys are getting some "different" weather...

Looks promising .....

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I hope I am wrong but we usually get to this point and then everything implodes between now and Friday's 12z runs. One day the dreaded implosion has got to not happen, fingers crossed it's Friday 8th Jan 2016  

Aye, the good thing we have here is that we are watching a potential greenie block developing. It's scandi ones that are much worse. They can actually develop fully, yet sit across in Norway laughing at you for weeks, then sod off east. You can almost see Norwegians dancing around in the snaw drinking beer if you look east hard enough through the drizzly grey pish.

At least if we get a decent greenie block we should get something out of it. Hell, a northerly toppler would be better than the current pish we've had for weeks.

I mean its F'in raining again. Forecast for the morn? Mair rain. 

Anyway, fingers crossed for massive frozen floods soon enough. Going to be some mothers of ice rinks in valleys if waters haven't subsided and we really do get a decent chilly spell!

Edited January 6, 2016 by scottish skier

[Hairy Celt]

Hmm I've forgotten what a proper northerly is like.... Er, winds from the north for a start?  Oh, and the rest.

The day after tomorrow posts appearing now.  ROFLMAO.

[NorthernRab]

3 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Hmm I've forgotten what a proper northerly is like.... Er, winds from the north for a start?  Oh, and the rest.

The day after tomorrow posts appearing now.  ROFLMAO.

Maybe our own Netweather version of The Day After Tomorrow will be known as such because come Friday morning it'll all go TU and we'll have to live with the catastrophic consequences of the biblical TOORPING in the model thread for years to come! 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Maybe our own Netweather version of The Day After Tomorrow will be known as such because come Friday morning it'll all go TU and we'll have to live with the catastrophic consequences of the biblical TOORPING in the model thread for years to come! 

One way or another we'll be snowed in, either the real deal or six foot drifts of toys as if someone gave Toys r Us a good shakedown. 

[moffatross]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the customary Pete Tong is about to surface in the 18Z GFS pub run. I rarely look in at the MO thread here, and I'm not a forum member on TWO any more, but the discussion in the MO thread there is in absolute ramp mode too, comparisons being drawn with pretty much every memorable or historic winter.

Realistically, it's going to get cooler, drier, and less windy for a wee while and there'll also be some snow to low levels.

[edo]

21 minutes ago, moffatross said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that the customary Pete Tong is about to surface in the 18Z GFS pub run. I rarely look in at the MO thread here, and I'm not a forum member on TWO any more, but the discussion in the MO thread there is in absolute ramp mode too, comparisons being drawn with pretty much every memorable or historic winter.

Realistically, it's going to get cooler, drier, and less windy for a wee while and there'll also be some snow to low levels.

You would not be welcome in the MT speaking such sense.....however I must say we do looked nailed on for some cracking cold weather next week and some of us will certainly see snow....be good to see this thread busy as have spent so much time in the MT I'm finding myself looking for channel lows.....

Cleared the garage out 2 days ago and put the sledges back up in the loft....forget about MJO torpedoes SSW and greenie highs that's responsible for the impending pattern change

[Northernlights]

Been  phoning old farming college friends from Orkney to Ayrshire  this last week  and all of them are fed up with the extreme weather of the last year especially the recent wet. Many have not got any ploughing done or only part done and cannot believe we are so dry.  Saw a farmer ploughing near Forres today.

Currently windy clear intervels and 3.5c

Maybe we will catch up with a foot of snow next week!!

 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Northernlights

[Ross B]

BBC scotland forecast talking of snow to low levels in the north east on Thursday night.  Also has a band for snow for Friday morning rush hour covering much of southern Scotland but not quite into the central belt!

Edited January 6, 2016 by Ross B

[NorthernRab]

Hmmm, looks like we'll have to write a prequel to the day after tomorrow called 'In Approximately 78 Minutes'. 

The perils of following each and every GFS run. See you folks tomorrow when it's all a bit different and a bit more firmed up!

[Hawesy]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/EGQL.html

To be honest, at this stage, I'll take anything over yet another day of this! Still no sunshine recorded in 2016.

 

[moffatross]

1 hour ago, edo said:

You would not be welcome in the MT speaking such sense....

Aye, which is why I don't bother in the MO thread here, and why I left TWO too. Anyway, my suspicions were founded, it turned out to be a toppler, and the TOORP'ers are out in their droves already although the first half of the GFS timescale is actually better for Scotland than any GFS run I've seen recently, and the cool zonal spell of the second half would be a cracker for us skiers :-)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/3h.htm

[edo]

Absolutely and yes I see that as I cant stay away from the addiction of reading the MT...every year...

Like these two features queuing up to the north on the fax..should be cold enough up north for some friends on here to potentially have snow on Monday  

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

So is it naileded on now then?

Can we post pics of ramps of ever increasing size yet?

---

EDIT. anyway, let's focus on the immediate. Current EURO4 for tomorrow morning. Nice higher intensity area over Soutra. 

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by scottish skier

[Northern Strath]

57 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

So is it naileded on now then?

Can we post pics of ramps of ever increasing size yet?

---

EDIT. anyway, let's focus on the immediate. Current EURO4 for tomorrow morning. Nice higher intensity area over Soutra. 

 

Aye looking good for you guys, radio forecast this morning mentioning "significant accumulations on higher routes and snow down to low levels", sounds fun

mention of winter 09/10 type charts in the model thread, taking that with a pinch of salt, would take something Jedi to match that one and tbh I'm quite fond of my guttering, being able to leave the house etc 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, Northern Strath said:

Aye looking good for you guys, radio forecast this morning mentioning "significant accumulations on higher routes and snow down to low levels", sounds fun

mention of winter 09/10 type charts in the model thread, taking that with a pinch of salt, would take something Jedi to match that one and tbh I'm quite fond of my guttering, being able to leave the house etc 

 

 

 

 

I suspect the Met-O warning writer will be giving the old yellow felt tip a good suck right now. Time for some snow warnings to get drawn, especially up your way and hopefully down here too  

[Northern Strath]

32 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I suspect the Met-O warning writer will be giving the old yellow felt tip a good suck right now. Time for some snow warnings to get drawn, especially up your way and hopefully down here too  

Fingers crossed Catch  the local met office forecast has given the dreaded (inevitable) downgrade on what looked like a Sunday/Monday snow fest but still plenty time for another switcheroo and still plenty snow symbols around. The daytime temps for next week look very nice indeed, once the cold is in any things possible and it'll certainly be a welcome change from the *hite many have had so far

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Northern Strath

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Northern Strath said:

Aye looking good for you guys, radio forecast this morning mentioning "significant accumulations on higher routes and snow down to low levels", sounds fun

mention of winter 09/10 type charts in the model thread, taking that with a pinch of salt, would take something Jedi to match that one and tbh I'm quite fond of my guttering, being able to leave the house etc 

Aye, there was a lot of guttering replaced around here after the 09/10 avalanches off the roofs. Don't think it'll be anywhere near 09/10 levels though, especially after on this mornings models (still good, just not yesterdays level of good).

On to the here and now, it's absolutely vile outside.

We recorded a mere 8mm of rain yesterday so my feeling that it had been drier was correct. Today though it's back with a vengeance, as of 9am we'd had 6mm and there's loads of surface water on the roads. River Don was still outside it's banks but lower than yesterday morning at the same time. Quite a strong and gusty wind at times too.

Looks like we are in for the same all day, but from tomorrow onward it should thankfully be cooler and drier.

[101_North]

Met warnings for Friday morning aren't what I wanted to see - keeping the snow risk further south and nowt for the Lothians. Perhaps a blessing in disguise though as a Met warning is usually a sure sign of disappointment!