Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Frost HoIIow]

7 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Nevertheless Scotland because of its latitude is more likely to be North of the jet stream / Polar front and so is more often in the cold air. Westerlies can give significant cold. My area had -20C in Jan 1984 in a Westerly regime. In Easterlies the Eastern Highlands and borders have similar weather to NE England. March 47 brought 7 mtr drifts to Highland Perthshire and Angus too.

Meanwhile temps are on the rise this evening after another cold day. Now 4.1C.

I see your point about 1984 but those are rare and the exception rather than the rule, the fact is unless you live very high up a mountain no inhabited places in the UK gets a great deal of snow or incredible cold most Winters. I wish that wasn't the case but I don't want to delude myself. Our climate for the most part is rubbish considering how far north all the UK is.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Medlock Vale

[A Winter's Tale]

13 minutes ago, Medlock Vale said:

I'm certainly not denying that Scotland on the whole is snowier especially on high ground - that is obvious you have higher mountains. I just wanted to point out some meteorological reasons where England does better - with an easterly. And that there are exceptions to Scotland's colder and snowier reputation. Like, for example, I singled out Glasgow and other low land places in Scotland which don't tend to get much in most situations. In fact I think Newcastle in England is a snowier city than Glasgow for example. Yet Newcastle is not high ground at all. Newcastle does quite well for easterly's, but better still places just a few miles more inland. And to some extent Newcastle can get some decent snow from Northerly's too. Would Scotland do just as good with smaller hills/mountains? No way. The seas/gulf stream around the UK moderate the weather a great deal no matter how far North you are. I think without the mountainous terrain Scotland wouldn't do half as good as it does. I think the reality is most towns & cities of Scotland have not seen lying snow in the past few days. For how far North all the UK is we really should do much better for cold and snow than we do given everywhere from Cornwall to Shetland is closer to the North Pole than the Equator.

 

3 hours ago, Medlock Vale said:

Scotland tends to get more PM/Northerly incursions but they rarely bring extreme temps nor is the snow long lasting on low ground with the exception of December 1995, there's also parts of Scotland that don't do well for snow at all like Glasgow and some other lowland areas. England tends to do better than Scotland with Siberian Continental air from the east and snow tends to settle at all levels with this wind direction because air from the east has a much lower dew point than the wetter type of snow from PM air. The Pennines can get absolutely hammered in an easterly flow. North-East England got 7 feet of level snow in March 1947 and I believe the drifts were more than triple that. It's just a pity that this wind direction is a rare beast otherwise Pennine England would give most of Scotland a run for the money. But yes overall especially with height you tend to get more snow mostly from PM/Northerly incursions.

The reason locations further south tend to do better in easterly set ups isn't really down to factors such as Gulf Stream, latitude, topography/altitude - it's more to do with the fact that a set-up conducive for a snowy easterly involves high pressure tending to be situated closer to Scotland meaning less widespread and intense snowfall up here. And such a set up isn't something you'd typically expect throughout a winter, no more so than snow falling from a channel low. 

Snow from a polar maritime air mass isn't really to do with elevation, it's more to do with the airfllow with cold air mire likely to be embedded in northern and Western sections of low pressure systems and Scotland's latitude us a more favourable in such set ups. 

I agree that Newcastle, among other cities in northern parts of Britain, probably have better chances for snow than Glasgow. Not only would Newcastle do better in an easterly, but also a northerly with greater exposure to the North Sea. In Glasgow's case, the Gulf Stream, low elevation, westerly location, urban heat island doesn't help with precipitation more likely to fall as rain. However only a few miles can be the difference, for example 15 miles between the city centre and Aberfoyle, in a marginal set-up it might be sleet at best in the City, further north in the countryside with not much of a higher elevation, there could be 10-15cm in and around the Trossachs. In northerly or westerly set ups, the problem is a lack of precipitation with mountains and high ground surrounding the area, especially to the north and west. 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

11 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

 

The reason locations further south tend to do better in easterly set ups isn't really down to factors such as Gulf Stream, latitude, topography/altitude - it's more to do with the fact that a set-up conducive for a snowy easterly involves high pressure tending to be situated closer to Scotland meaning less widespread and intense snowfall up here. And such a set up isn't something you'd typically expect throughout a winter, no more so than snow falling from a channel low. 

Snow from a polar maritime air mass isn't really to do with elevation, it's more to do with the airfllow with cold air mire likely to be embedded in northern and Western sections of low pressure systems and Scotland's latitude us a more favourable in such set ups. 

I agree that Newcastle, among other cities in northern parts of Britain, probably have better chances for snow than Glasgow. Not only would Newcastle do better in an easterly, but also a northerly with greater exposure to the North Sea. In Glasgow's case, the Gulf Stream, low elevation, westerly location, urban heat island doesn't help with precipitation more likely to fall as rain. However only a few miles can be the difference, for example 15 miles between the city centre and Aberfoyle, in a marginal set-up it might be sleet at best in the City, further north in the countryside with not much of a higher elevation, there could be 10-15cm in and around the Trossachs. In northerly or westerly set ups, the problem is a lack of precipitation with mountains and high ground surrounding the area, especially to the north and west. 

 

Yeah, that's the thing - elevation is king in the UK. But places in Eastern Europe for example don't have to rely on that as much as the UK does, of course it still matters but they don't have to worry as much (if a person likes snow over there, I'm sure there will be many). The continent generally has colder dew points and upper air temps during the Winter, is away from that awful gulf stream and influence of the large Atlantic. But this Winter *so far* has been milder than normal over there.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Medlock Vale

[Norrance]

Though stats can mislead I just checked some snow lying averages. Lerwick 10mtrs asl, Craibstone [Aberdeen] 80 mtrs asl, Pitlochry 90 mtrs asl, Eskdalemuir, 230 mtrs asl and Buxton 310 mtrs asl all have  within a couple of days the same number of snow lying days. The further NE you are within the UK the snowier it is. [except for the Broch to Rosehearty that is!]

AWT. Though we are nearer the HP in Easterlies the longer sea track can still lead to heavy convective snow showers when the uppers are cold enough. eg Late Nov 2010 Feb 1978 and Feb 1986 among others.

Anyway good night from me.

[Frost HoIIow]

13 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Though stats can mislead I just checked some snow lying averages. Lerwick 10mtrs asl, Craibstone [Aberdeen] 80 mtrs asl, Pitlochry 90 mtrs asl, Eskdalemuir, 230 mtrs asl and Buxton 310 mtrs asl all have  within a couple of days the same number of snow lying days. The further NE you are within the UK the snowier it is. [except for the Broch to Rosehearty that is!]

AWT. Though we are nearer the HP in Easterlies the longer sea track can still lead to heavy convective snow showers when the uppers are cold enough. eg Late Nov 2010 Feb 1978 and Feb 1986 among others.

Anyway good night from me.

For sure Scotland can get some decent snows from Easterly's but I reckon NE England takes the prize for the amount of snow from the East. North York Moors & North Pennines in particular. No doubt Scotland especially the Northern part of Scotland does better than anywhere in the UK from Northerly's & PM air. The South-East of England, in particular Kent can do very well from a NE wind as seen in January 1987 when they got absolutely buried. And the upper air temps's down there were close to -20C http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=1&day=12&year=1987&map=2&hour=0

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by Medlock Vale

[snawbaw]

I'm about 75m asl and I have over 200mm of snow outside - you can get stats to say what ever you want to but at the end of the day they are only percentage risks/ occurrences.  If everything was all so just so I'm afraid us guys wouldn't have so much to talk about/ chest bump about!! It's weather, the chaos of entropy in action!

Edited December 15, 2015 by snawbaw

[101_North]

Still in Phoenix. Never thought for a second that the forecast overnight low here would be close to 9c less than the overnight temp back home. Looking like between 0c and -2c which is the coldest night here so far apparently.

[mistyqueen]

Mornin' Campers! Lovely, clear morning here, temp 4c, pressure 1012. Long may it continue!

[Guest]

Next week looks very horrible weatherwise, loads and loads of rain coming up. Huge potential for more flooding and disruption around Xmas time.

[NorthernRab]

Another cold one here this morning, clear skies and frosty at -1'C. Now to (hopefully) get most of this mild out of the way over the next five to six days when it arrives tonight! 

[Ravelin]

I seem to be the opposite this morning, a cloudy 4/5C with heavy drizzle when I drove to work this morning.

Temperature graph for Dyce shows a nice constant temperature increase from yesterday morning.

Surprisingly, even this morning at home in Kemnay we still have the last lying remnants of yesterday mornings snow. Won't last the day out though.

[Guest]

It's going dark here. I know it's only the cloud, but part of me is wondering if the alien mothership is moving into position for the final attack.

[NorthernRab]

Temperature on its way down now after maxing out at a bit above 2'C. It was sunny for much of the day but fog has now set in. 

Aviemore only reached -4'C I see. 

[Northernlights]

Cold first thing this morning at 1.5c  and as the dawn came in and the cloud started to clear a ground frost started to take hold again .A bit milder now with sun and currently  3.8c.

 See in the model thread thay are angsting about a change to cooler conditions. In my 50 odd years of weather watching we usually have a green Christmas  to be followed frequently by a white New Year with the change happening between Christmas and New Year. Not very scientific but a normal occurence over the years and in spite of a very mild week coming up any clear skies at night I feel will be cool as demonstrated this morning.

 

[Ravelin]

34 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

In my 50 odd years of weather watching we usually have a green Christmas  to be followed frequently by a white New Year with the change happening between Christmas and New Year. Not very scientific but a normal occurence over the years

 

Funnily enough that's always been my impression. From a completely non-farming background and even before I got 'weather obsessed' I always felt it was much more likely to cold and/or snowy at the New Year than Xmas even although the two are only a week apart. I wonder whether there are any official stats to back this up?

[Norrance]

Not sure about the stats but that is my memory too from the seventies and eighties. Green Christmases and white New Years. 

Some signs of a change to colder weather around Christmas Eve, at least up here in Scotland though a lot of warmth and damp to get through first.

[Hairy Celt]

I grew up a bit further south (Westmorland) and remember mild Xmases and New Years, just a few snowy spells later in the winter.  Morecambe Bay warmth did for us all too often.

Getting milder in Caithness through the day today, all the hoar frost gone this morning.  Still plenty cold and snow south of here though.

Oh dog biscuits, no, I'm not trying to restart the north-south thing, mongoose off!!!

Edited December 15, 2015 by Hairy Celt

[Hairy Celt]

  looks like he's getting some help with a rather reluctant brown trout...

 

this one's better... imagine speaking to your son - in orbit!!

Edited December 15, 2015 by Hairy Celt

[skifreak]

12 hours ago, Northernlights said:

In my 50 odd years of weather watching we usually have a green Christmas  to be followed frequently by a white New Year with the change happening between Christmas and New Year. Not very scientific but a normal occurence over the years and in spite of a very mild week coming up any clear skies at night I feel will be cool as demonstrated this morning.

 

To join in with this theme the historical evidence is that there is only a 50% likelyehood of skiable snow on CairnGorm Mountain on Christmas Day (ignoring the point it has recently  stopped opening on Christmas Day itself) and almost 100% chance of skiable snow on the mountain on New Years Day. The season often kicks off, or at least does so properly with lasting snow between Christmas and New Year.

Indeed in the West, getting started before the New Year is the exception and before Christmas at Glencoe is by historical standards actually a real rarity, so it's been unusual to see Glencoe get up and running a few days before Christmas for 2 or the last 3 years and on Boxing Day two years ago. Weather has been teasing us, it's been close to having opened a on a few occasions and had the weather patterns occurred such as weekends were favourable we might have already had a couple of weekends under our belt in the West - but such is the Scottish Mountain weather. Next few days are bleak, but it was like that  in 2009 and then a switch just flicked end of November and the snow just piled up over Christmas on CairnGorm. 

[mistyqueen]

Well stone the crows! It's currently 11.2c up here, warmer outside than in! Calm with a wee bit o' drizzle. Hardly anything to get excited about for those who love the cauld!

Edited December 16, 2015 by mistyqueen

[mardatha]

Horrible misty dreich yukky stuff here

[Ravelin]

When I left for work a little while ago it was 9.8C, misty and raining. I'd take a picture but there's not much point. Just take any grey sock, run it under the tap then stick it over your head. That'll give you a much better picture of what it's like here this morning. Yucky to the extreme!

How anyone can 'enjoy' the potentially record mild December if this is what it brings is beyond my comprehension. At least we've had some cooler spells to remind us it's supposed to be winter.

[snawbaw]

Temps are so variable, it's about 4.5C here but over three degrees more just down the road.  Still a few inches of snow slowly dying on the ground so maybe that's the difference.

[Colsuth]

Currently 8.9 C here and no wind.  Sky just cleared.  not a bad December day.

[Ravelin]

Ah well, clearing up here now. Patches of blue sky and light cloud, ground drying, no wind and the sun even making an appearance. A vast improvement on this morning.

Oh, and the impressively steady increase in temperature for Dyce continues unabated.