The Midlands - Weather Chat

[PolarWarsaw]

1 hour ago, bigsnow said:

Yes thats the one.... im not putting any eggs in any basket... and as for the move i wish you all the best with that and when you do finally find such a place please pop back and tell us so we can all come and join you... Im so despondent with it all that yesterday i took Mrs Bigsnow to the travel agents and booked 4nights in Lapland for Christmas 2016 fly out 22nd and come home 26th.... so defo a white Christmas for me the wife and the kids....

 

There are plenty of places you could go. 

Alaska is cold for 9 months of the year, but it can get quite warm right in the middle of summer. 

You have various places all over North America. Denver/Salt Lake City can be 35c for a lot of the summer, or certainly hovering around 30 with the chance of storms not far away..then in winter it can be snowy and freezing. Parts of downtown Denver have had 30 inches of snow already this season and it's only half way through over there. Then you have places like Ohio, upstate new york, Michigan, MA. Always 25-30c in the summer, good chance of storms and then LES during the winter giving 100" inches in parts surrounding water. Finding a good balanced climate, is not hard - apart from in the UK. Where you struggle to get one decent covering of snow for 5 winters, then you get 2 in 2 and so on - it's ruddy crap. 

Tiny smattering overnight, looks more like a thick frost than snow. 

Very cold for the next couple of days and then rain/milder uppers early next week onwards.

[klippieboo]

Sat/sun looks interesting. Will have a massive impact on how this cold spell pans out.

had a cm or two over night but very very icy out there this morning. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Have a dusting this morning. Icy with crisp Winter sunshine. Beautiful.

[dudleyweather1]

Not as much as I thought in Dudley and Halesowen.  A dusting to a cm in places.  Widespread ice, and untreated side roads are a bit more interesting but on the whole the roads seem in good shape.  Looks a fine sunny, dry day today, cold as it should be.  Overnight low of 0.3C, currently 1.3C and rising.  I must say it's nice to have temperatures more suited to the season we're in.

[Costa Del Fal]

Lots of uncertainty for Saturday night/Sunday. Southward movement of that ppn looks to depend somewhat on how fast the Atlantic front for Monday is moving towards us. Met office symbols now dry for Sunday and viewing the models I would agree for now, slightly favouring that over snow but by no means a done deal yet. 

[Matty23]

Snow symbols now gone for sat nite back to dry n cold 

[Arctic Hare]

Made the right choice to turn in early(ish) last night -- no snow here, at least none that lay. Just green and damp, though the Clent Hills did look rather nice when I looked earlier. Shame I don't have time for a trip out there today.

Mind you, we did have a very, very severe frost for this part of the world: -0.1 °C.

[PolarWarsaw]

17 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Lots of uncertainty for Saturday night/Sunday. Southward movement of that ppn looks to depend somewhat on how fast the Atlantic front for Monday is moving towards us. Met office symbols now dry for Sunday and viewing the models I would agree for now, slightly favouring that over snow but by no means a done deal yet. 

To be honest, a quick heavy covering of snow followed by the reset button to take the risk of a better reset is fine by me. 

This pattern, whilst cold and frosty is a waste of winter when it comes to proper, accumulating, snow. I've had 2 sugar dustings this 'winter' so far..and both of them combined wouldn't even be half a CM. That's not good enough, nowhere near it. At least Monday/Tuesday show some proper snow before it washes away. 

Hopefully the CFS and so on are pointing in the right direction for next month, as Ian has mentioned with regards to MOGREPS and GLOSEA. 

[nobble]

Had a flurry in Walsall wood in partly cloudy sky 

[Snowyowl9]

Looking colder to yesterday maxes,had a few light hail and snow showers which made the snow thaw as cloudcover lifted the temps to 2.2c now 1.5c and blue skies and sunny,better staying like that I think.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[Arctic Hare]

Ladies and gentlemen, an update...

...it's raining.

Not snow, not sleet, not even hail. Plain old cold rain. The sun's disappeared and it's grey and dull overhead. You have to laugh (or else you'd cry). So far, this cold spell IMBY is actually managing to be worse than last winter's.

 

[Staffordshire]

Well if it looks like decent snow back home Monday I will definitely be getting the coach back

[The Wolf]

1 hour ago, Matty23 said:

Snow symbols now gone for sat nite back to dry n cold 

What a surprise! Misery!

[tom_f123]

So, going on from this morning then i said I would base a first forecast for Monday on the blend of JMA / NAVGEM & aperge -

With ALL things considered it is my belief that the aperge run of 06z is pretty close to the final 500mb solution

Heres the NH plot & the euro plot -

at t60 

 

we can see neutral tilt ( so Its pretty vertical ) minimal residual energy closing off to the North & disruption extendes down to biscay so Monday Morning ) currently T72 I would expect a final outcome close to this

Because the low DOESNT close off ( see it in the channel at 1000mb ) then all the winds ahead of the low into the PPN belt  are still cold continental ones -

The Theta chart shows this well - so expect a band of snow ( no moisture rates included yet or distribution ) to straddle the UK from London up to the Borders of Scotland with the eastern extent 

London - Northampton - east Midlands - Yorkshire up to SE scotland-

Of course some may think well Pointless to do a forecast now with such volatility in the models - well the volatile point isnt the location of the PPN belt so much as how far North the milder SW flow gets into the front -

remember the models keep stalling the front out so where that stall point is will obviously deliver the most snow but perhaps increase the chances of snow to rain in the south -

The worst case is the low closes off over say the SW or wales + stalls -then the forward winds over the Southern part of the UK quickly turn the snow to rain -

This option is still on the table & is what I call a quick 'shallow' slider that doesnt get south of the UK-

I dont think thats the preferred option as it stands - although the GFS does -

The aperge above does it for me.

In terms of blending the 3 models the JMA is on the same page as the APERGE but the PLUCKY NAVGEM is the best scenario ( I think its slightly over amplified because there a patch of 552 heights that get into southern Greenland at T54 )

The reason why its the best scenario apart from the positive greenland heights is theres no residual energy or PVA left north of our slider low at 72 so whilst the slider does just about close off into a shallow low its track SE is almost optimum for snow over the whole of the UK -as it slides into the continent-

this is a great chart for the bulk of the Uk

So there you have it summary for Monday as it stands

* rain steaming in from the west - Turning to snow over the SW, wales, The midlands & NW before more than likely running out of juice - very similar to Feb 96.

Even 12 hours before you may be in the zone to wake up & wonder why you missed out -

Risk counties for snow to rain - obviously all south facing coasts along cornwall to Kent & even if your the next county inland upwards you may not escape...

The places that tend to do the best here are the west Midlands at elevation.... 

Theres my punt as it stands for phase 1

Interesting post from steve m on the model thread, particularly the last bit, we can hope. 

[Costa Del Fal]

Good to see the GFS 06z went for some light snow for us on Sunday too.

anyway, this scenario early next week reminds me of Feb 2008 (I think it was). Think there were 2 or even 3 attempts of the Atlantic trying to break through but it kept turning to snow from around Bristol/Gloucester northwards. Have a very nice covering and if I remember, caught a lot out because it was expected to turn to rain far easier.

[Aaki Khan]

Saturday Night Sunday Morning Looking Interesting Currently For Some Parts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

a few flurries earlier today, but snow virtually all thawed, Sat night looking interesting as the Atlantic moves in, then for Monday GFS 06Z has pushed the Atlantic further west but not enough, if 06Z right, milder later monday

[Aaki Khan]

Cheshire Gap Filling Up. Some Beefy Showers Coming Thru.. 

[Ben_Cambs]

5 minutes ago, Aaki Khan said:

Cheshire Gap Filling Up. Some Beefy Showers Coming Thru.. 

Yep, moderate snow falling here at the moment. Though very marginal, hopefully the temperature will come down quickly.

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Ben_Cambs

[Snow-Capped]

2 minutes ago, Ben_Cambs said:

Yep, moderate snow falling here at the moment. Though very marginal, hopefully the temperature come down quickly.

 

Will become even more marginal as less cold uppers are being introduced down from -6 to -4, DP's also around 1-2 so makes it all that more marginal. As usual heavier bursts more likely to fall as sleet/snow.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Snow-Capped

[Matty23]

Looking like just old rain as normal 

[Ryan05]

Still waiting to see our first snow flake here in Nottingham, not even had a Sleet shower yet. Our best chance of seeing snow in the current set up would appear to be frontal snow if the Atlantic tries to come in although after the mild wet mush we have had so far this winter I would settle for dry & frosty

Edited January 15, 2016 by Ryan05

[The Wolf]

Interesting little batch coming down from the North West. Rain and sleet mainly. Will it be snow here in the slightly colder air?

[Kieran]

Snowing in Shropshire, hope it falls as snow as this lively precipitation band is poised to pass through Birmingham

[conor123]

Just finished work and sleet here in Telford, in fact more rain even at this elevation unfortunately.