cold spell Weekend Cold Snap 20th-23rd Nov 2015

[weirpig]

latest bbc forecast

[damianslaw]

Puzzled by the meto warning - radar and precip charts are showing snowfall for here and Cumbria generally - places with height away from the coast, yet the map seems to miss out Cumbria completely but includes southern parts of NW England. Its a very inaccurate map in this respect.

 

As ever with snow it will be a case of nowcasting and sudden developments...

[cheese]

A game of wait and see.. countless examples of snow being forecast only for higher levels, then for it to snow here and settle.

[Ravelin]

Puzzled by the meto warning - radar and precip charts are showing snowfall for here and Cumbria generally - places with height away from the coast, yet the map seems to miss out Cumbria completely but includes southern parts of NW England. Its a very inaccurate map in this respect.

 

As ever with snow it will be a case of nowcasting and sudden developments...

Well I'm slap bang in the warning area and up until this afternoon the BBC Weather app an Met Office were showing snow moving in Fri afternoon and continuing, with breaks, into Sat early hours.

Now it's showing me getting lots of cold rain, with a little sleet thrown in if I'm a really good boy. I hope they are wrong, very wrong!

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Last really good snow here was 2011 and I missed it wahhh before that? Probably 1988 or something lol!

You forgetting March 2013?? That breakdown gave me around 25cm!! But you are quite low down so its of course different for you. I don't remember any good snow event in 2011/12

Wait early 2011 gave us something to chew actually, that was a good fall of snow!

[Costa Del Fal]

You forgetting March 2013?? That breakdown gave me around 25cm!! But you are quite low down so its of course different for you. I don't remember any good snow event in 2011/12

Wait early 2011 gave us something to chew actually, that was a good fall of snow!

Mind you, 63m and 125m ASL between you is not a huge difference though! Every bit of height makes a bit of difference though I wouldnt call 125m high up (thought not saying you mean that! ). Im 120m ASL and it usually isnt enough in most marginal set ups.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Singularity]

For those interested in how the global climate links together, here's a blog post that traces the weekend cold snap back to changes in tropical convection:

 

http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2015/11/19/weekend-cold-snap-thank-the-tropics/

[damianslaw]

For those interested in how the global climate links together, here's a blog post that traces the weekend cold snap back to changes in tropical convection:

 

http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2015/11/19/weekend-cold-snap-thank-the-tropics/

 

 

Thanks for the link - an excellent and informative read, and not too technical.. Highlighting how the unusual to see a combo of high SST values across the tropical lattitudes in all sections and that they are resulting in tropical convection which has had major impacts on conditions of late. Conditions you would normally expect from an El Nino of this magnitude at this time of year do not appear to be running to course, meaning likelihood for things to continue to perhaps not play ball so to speak..

[ZONE 51]

I have read lots but not enough I shall read more later when things get going, I can never read to much about the snowy weather, might spot someone doin some towing, with this setup things can change, nothing is set in stone, but I'd expect the odd moan and groan, are be radar watchin hopin the snow is in range, just a few flakes in the breeze would be cool, but I know one thing tho I'm gonna be freezin. - ZONE51

 

----(just made this up^^^^!!)

 

 

 

 

Anyway looking interesting this eve, and watch out for potentially those very strong winds later developing, the wind chill be very low in the winds. very cold tonight.

[mountain shadow]

Anyone watching Carol Kirkwoods forecast this am, would have been less than impressed at the snow forecasts.

Mainly cold and dry with a few wintry showers over high ground.

Massive downgrades on a couple of days ago.

[Liam J]

Looking at the GFS this morning it looks like the chances of seeing snow will be fairly limited as that low slips southwards, the wet bulb temps are around 4-6c, 0c isotherm 500m+ and 850's -5c with the ppn, if you have a bit of height then chances will increase, sadly not looking as good as it was a few days ago. 

 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

This mornings NetWX. A bitterly cold weekend to come, With a chance of snow flurry's for most of Scotland/Wales/Pennines/Midlands and East Coast as the Low sinks South with gales in places. To be honest any seasoned member on here would understand the up-down trends regarding snowfall in these type of setup's. So absolutely no surprises from me at all, And is pretty much the outcome i would expect after it first showed up in the output with such a fine margin. No 'Massive' downgrade.. All balanced and normal, I think some have a to high expectation. The first 'wintry' weekend of the season coming up, Just don't be disappointed if you don't catch a flake, As more wont than will...  Enjoy.

Edited November 20, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

@MetMattTaylor

 

#UKSnow - Most will see little or no lying snow (the ground is too warm) On the hills Wales/NEng/NIre/Scot 1-5cm possible (10cm NE Scot).

[Liam J]

The high res NetWx-SR is looking better for snow potential inland away from coastal areas, could be some surprises with people seeing snow falling even if it doesn't settle, snow or not it will certainly feel much much colder than of late.

 

 

And a chart for this evening where some significant snowfall is possible in parts of Scotland for a time. 

 

Edited November 20, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Polar Maritime]

GFS 6z take on Saturdays snow risk, All slightly further West..

 

Edited November 20, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[MP-R]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some snow on the Mendips this weekend, doubtful for my elevation save for stuff falling.

[Summer Sun]

Showers turning to snow in northern Scotland now and turning to sleet and a bit of snow for high ground in northern England

 

[Summer Sun]

Updated snow warning

 

Issued at: 1046 on Fri 20 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1700 on Fri 20 Nov 2015

Valid to: 1000 on Sat 21 Nov 2015

 

A band of rain, sleet and snow will move south across northern and eastern Scotland later on Friday, then into the Borders and parts of northeast England on Friday night. 1-4 cm is likely at some lower levels (this less likely near exposed coasts and in northeast England) but with 5-10 cm above 150 m. Drifting is also possible in the strong to gale force north or northwesterly winds; indeed severe gales with gusts to 60 mph could bring a short period of blizzard conditions to the highest routes. The more persistent snow and strong winds will have cleared by Saturday morning but ice will be an additional hazard by then, particularly for higher level routes. This is an update of the warning issued yesterday to bring the boundary inland from exposed coastal fringes and a little further west overall. Please be aware of the likelihood of difficult driving conditions and some travel disruption.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A major (but temporary) change of weather type will see the winds swing into a more northerly direction into this weekend, pulling down much colder air across the whole of the UK and western Europe, after what has been an exceptionally mild first half of November. Wintry showers will spread to many areas and night frosts will become much more widespread. Within this northerly flow, a more organised area of wintry weather and strong to gale force winds is expected to develop near northern Scotland this afternoon, before transferring southwards overnight. The influence of the warm North Sea should limit the amounts of snow falling close to the coasts, while the preceding mild conditions will tend to reduce the amounts accumulating on tarmac surfaces.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447977600&regionName=uk

[pip22]

Its been sleeting in Chorley, Lancashire it was hail before.

[Polar Maritime]

Temp 2.8c with sleety showers just now.

Edited November 20, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Liam J]

Temp fallen back to 5.6c with some showers blown through on cold wind. 

[Benjamin]

Something I've always wondered is when forecasts say snow likely on higher ground, what exactly constitutes higher ground? I live in Crystal Palace which is approx. 100 meters above sea level. Would this make any difference in the chances of rain turning to snow, or does it need to be higher?

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Something I've always wondered is when forecasts say snow likely on higher ground, what exactly constitutes higher ground? I live in Crystal Palace which is approx. 100 meters above sea level. Would this make any difference in the chances of rain turning to snow, or does it need to be higher?

Essentially it should make a slight difference because your apparently 1C colder than sea level but it all depends really. Any height is a bonus but I would class higher ground as 300m. Positivity should bring that snow level down!

Edited November 20, 2015 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Some early snow pics from Pomeroy Co.Tyrone

[Liam J]

3.8c now, windy with heavy rain showers... Feels bitter in the wind.