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ZONE 51

Weekend Cold Snap 20th-23rd Nov 2015

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Hi everyone, are you looking foward to this weekends cold spell?

 

I couldn't find a thread on it, am doing this to set things off and am happy to have my posts put into any other thread on the cold spell or merge.

 

I've looked at some model data looking good for the cold fans! (incl myself) are be reading closely the model thread later. I hope to see a few flakes in the wind at least and it's looking likely many of us are going to see wintry showers popping through from the north. Some areas of Scotland might see some thick snowfall, and some of these features could just head south to give a dusting or more! 

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There was a cold snap from the Arctic region after a very mild Autumn period, 20 years ago, roughly at the same time in November

I wonder how much snow will fall in comparison?

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post-11361-0-66582600-1447919365_thumb.g

Above is a snow map I made last night. Scotland is likely to get some thick snowfall. For the areas shaded in pink further south the chances are things will change, so take this as a guide to what is possible with the wintry weather over the weekend (starting Friday in Scotland) it could be that it's " I need the precipitation" rather then the cold for some, as it be cold enough looking at the temps, the upper 850's temperatures looking cold enough the dew points  on ther east coast looking above 0c but inland below, I'd imagine snow showers for those further south on lower ground would be at night. 

 

 

 

The Arctic cold spell is coming please do prepare:

 

Warm clothes, access to warm gloves and hat, water and snacks in car/other (keep the food away from heat unless it's meant to be hot) blankets (store in your ride) mobile phones and charged/charger, battery torches, pee pots?... you never know if your going to get stuck in the snow, or simply break down in the cold without the snow. It does sound obvious yes but we can forget simple things and be unprepared.

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I see the METO have warning out for the weekend cold snap.

 

Issued at: 
1045 on Thu 19 Nov 2015

Valid from: 
1600 on Fri 20 Nov 2015

Valid to: 
1000 on Sat 21 Nov 2015

A band of rain, sleet and snow will move south across northern and eastern Scotland later on Friday, then into the Borders and northeast England on Friday night. The snow will mainly affect high ground at first but will fall to lower levels on Friday night. 1-4 cm is likely at some lower levels but with 5-10 cm above 150 m, with drifting in the strong to gale force north or northwesterly winds. Indeed severe gales with gusts to 60 mph could bring a short period of blizzard conditions to the highest routes later Friday evening and overnight. The more persistent snow and strong winds will have cleared by Saturday morning but ice will be an additional hazard by then, particularly for higher level routes.

Please be aware of the likelihood of some difficult driving conditions and some travel disruption. A major (but temporary) change of weather type will see the winds swing into a more northerly direction, pulling down much colder air across the whole of Britain and western Europe, after what has been an exceptionally mild first half of November. Wintry showers will spread to many northern areas in particular and night frosts will become much more widespread.

Within this northerly flow, a small but quite active low pressure system is expected to develop and transfer south bringing more widespread wintry conditions and strong to gale force winds. At present details of both the snow amounts and wind strengths are uncertain, and so expect updates to the warning.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447977600&regionName=uk

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Is Cornwall/Devon suppose to be getting anything "wintry" this weekend/Monday ?

BBC weather says no ( my area ) anyway

It looks like the SW is going to miss out :(

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As the METO say Skull it's a little uncertain atm, With up-dates expected.

Within this northerly flow, a small but quite active low pressure system is expected to develop and transfer south bringing more widespread wintry conditions and strong to gale force winds. At present details of both the snow amounts and wind strengths are uncertain, and so expect updates to the warning.

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Is Cornwall/Devon suppose to be getting anything "wintry" this weekend/Monday ?

BBC weather says no ( my area ) anyway

It looks like the SW is going to miss out :(

Yes, quite possibly especially over high ground but down to lower levels as well especially in Devon, Dorset and Somerset not so sure about Cornwall though.

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Warnings have been extended now.

post-12319-0-01663200-1447935695_thumb.j

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Yes, quite possibly especially over high ground but down to lower levels as well especially in Devon, Dorset and Somerset not so sure about Cornwall though.

As the METO say Skull it's a little uncertain atm, With up-dates expected.

Thanks guys I suppose we have to wait and see

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Warnings have been extended now.

Yeah, surprised the wind warning is so widespread as any significant winds look only to affect a small area in the south east, according to the GFS anyway. But the Met do mention there is some uncertainty regarding this aspect.  

 

post-9615-0-12040600-1447936405_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-65188000-1447936410_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-10475900-1447936418_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-41437300-1447936424_thumb.pn

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Warnings have been extended now.

At a rough guess, I would say only around 2% of the popualtion are in the snow warning area, it has downgraded significantly since it first appeared on the GFS/ECM. The Uk Mey had it pretty much nailed though.

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At a rough guess, I would say only around 2% of the popualtion are in the snow warning area, it has downgraded significantly since it first appeared on the GFS/ECM. The Uk Mey had it pretty much nailed though.

 

Maybe we will see M.S, Who knows. But looking at the METO warnings for Snow it certainly covers more than 2%... I certainly would't say it's 'downgraded significantly' just slight variations over the past few days as its come closer to the time-frame, And any well seasoned model watcher will know even at this stage that nothings a given re-snow up until or a few hours before the event. Even the METO are uncertain at this point. But i respect your opinion.. 

At present details of both the snow amounts and wind strengths are uncertain, and so expect updates to the warning.

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Is Cornwall/Devon suppose to be getting anything "wintry" this weekend/Monday ?

BBC weather says no ( my area ) anyway

It looks like the SW is going to miss out :(

Looking at some of the latest charts I'd say it is unlikely but not out of the question with temps ranging from roughly 3 to 6c through the weekend and a touch higher the further west you are in Cornwall, so the BBC/Met Office may be calling this correctly but some uncertainty in details as has been mentioned above. 

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A cold weather alert is also in force for the North west, North east and Yorkshire & the Humber

 

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 0852 on Thu 19 Nov 2015

 

There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather and icy conditions between 2100 on Friday 20 Nov and 0900 on Monday 23 Nov in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

 

Turning much colder from the north through Friday and for the weekend. A band of showers moving south across eastern parts on Friday night will turn increasingly wintry with some snow, especially over hills. Over the weekend showers will be most frequent in the east, but with accumulations mainly over hills. Strong to gale force north to northwest winds on Saturday with severe gales likely for a time near eastern coasts, giving a marked wind chill. Overnight frosts are expected widely, with localised icy conditions possible where wintry showers occur. Milder air is expected to spread in from the west during Monday.

 

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

 

All other regions in England are on level 1 (40% risk)

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There was a cold snap from the Arctic region after a very mild Autumn period, 20 years ago, roughly at the same time in November

I wonder how much snow will fall in comparison?

 

Not sure I remember that one, I know the '96 one of course, seen your youtube video before

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This is so disappointing:

fritosat.jpg

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This is so disappointing:

fritosat.jpg

Perhaps, but it is also pretty realistic, although I am not 100% convince about lying snow at low levels in coastal parts up here in NE Scotland - it could go either way.

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I really hope I get some snow from this cold snap. It might be hard though because I'm sheltered by the highlands, but in past northerly outbreaks I've done really well for snow (4+ inches at times) so I'm remaining very optimistic!

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I really hope I get some snow from this cold snap. It might be hard though because I'm sheltered by the highlands, but in past northerly outbreaks I've done really well for snow (4+ inches at times) so I'm remaining very optimistic!

 

I've always thought we done rubbish (for snaw) in northerly's here Ross, dry and cold. ironically that snow line in the map seems to run along the northern line of the Clyde, close but no donuts for us again lol!

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To be fair, it was never forecasted to be an absolute snowfest... far from it. That map illustrates exactly what I was expecting and what it was originally forecasted to be - a late November cold snap with some wintry showers along the eastern and western coastlines.

Only a couple of days ago it forecast to be much much more widespread than that.

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I've always thought we done rubbish (for snaw) in northerly's here Ross, dry and cold. ironically that snow line in the map seems to run along the northern line of the Clyde, close but no donuts for us again lol!

Maybe it was easterlies lol. But I'm sure at least one or two have gave us a good covering.

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Maybe it was easterlies lol. But I'm sure at least one or two have gave us a good covering.

 

Last really good snow here was 2011 and I missed it wahhh :) before that? Probably 1988 or something lol!

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When`s the last cold snap we had in November from a NWly.

The recent few years are a blur to me.

Got one in 2013,making this up as I go along.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2013/Rrea00120131119.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2013/Rrea00220131119.gif

Gave a slight covering too and a max of 3.5c its that date again 19th to 20th.

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