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A late season tropical depression has formed, well south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. 21E has winds of 30kts, and consists of a partially exposed LLCC to the southeast of a mass of convection. Moderate shear is currently affecting 21E, resulting in this structure. Shear is expected to lessen over the next few days, and as 21E moves over warm water, it should strengthen. The only limiting factor in the 24-72hr time period is low humidity in the region. With the low shear and warm water, NHC are forecasting a 60kt peak for 21E, so it has a good shot at potentially becoming a hurricane. In 72hrs time, shear will rise dramatically, killing the system.

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21E has gradually strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Rick, with winds of 35kts. Convection has become deeper over the LLCC, an indication that shear is relaxing. Some further intensification is expected over the next day or so, before shear rises dramatically.

According to NHC, only 3 storms have formed later than Rick in reliable recorded history.

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Rick has not strengthened, and has instead been attacked by shear again. The LLCC is partially exposed from the declining deep convection. Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so as Rick moves northwest. Thereafter, even stronger shear awaits, bringing about this weak storm's demise in a few days time.

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