Atlantic Storm #2 Barney

[Liam J]

60mph winds would be more damaging to parts of the Midlands which rarely see winds over 40mph, even on the windiest days. It's very worrying for me and my work (old glasshouses over 60 years old)

Why is a 60mph wind more damaging to the Midlands than anywhere else in the country? I've been to the Midlands before and the houses are still made of bricks and mortar like the vast majority across the UK. And in those 60 years the Midlands will have experienced far worse than what is forecast tomorrow, so don't be worried. 

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mokidugway]

Why is a 60mph wind more damaging to the Midlands than anywhere else in the country? I've been to the Midlands before and the houses are still made of bricks and mortar like the vast majority across the UK. And in those 60 years the Midlands will have experienced far worse than what is forecast tomorrow, so don't be worried.

it's the tree thing isn't it ...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Why is a 60mph wind more damaging to the Midlands than anywhere else in the country? I've been to the Midlands before and the houses are still made of bricks and mortar like the vast majority across the UK. And in those 60 years the Midlands will have experienced far worse than what is forecast tomorrow, so don't be worried.

Fair point to be honest..

I would look at it more days with winds over 50mph in the south compared to say North of Cumbria.

I think what you would find is a much higher ratio in the north than the south. Which comes to the conclusion that you guys up north are tougher. Haha!

But yes, I think it will be a bit blowy over the south tomorrow

[toggerob]

Saturated ground is another thing to take into consideration, even though the strongest winds are in the Midlands and South it still wouldn't take much of a gust to bring down weakened tree's even up here in the NW, a shift northwards of just 20 miles would increase the speeds for the Pennines from gusting 40mph to 60mph.

[Liam J]

Fair point to be honest..

I would look at it more days with winds over 50mph in the south compared to say North of Cumbria.

I think what you would find is a much higher ratio in the north than the south. Which comes to the conclusion that you guys up north are tougher. Haha!

But yes, I think it will be a bit blowy over the south tomorrow

Oh yeah, I'm not trying to belittle tomorrow at all and it will have some impacts.

 

The south has seen some very severe storms over the years and some of the more infamous storms to hit the UK, tomorrow will not compare to them (famous last words) lol... Tougher up north or not each storm brings impacts wherever they affect the UK.  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Will be interesting how tomorrow goes, strong winds or not, it's a low pressure spwaning of another

[Liam J]

18z will be out soon, wonder if it'll ramp the winds up from the 12z... Normally the GFS exaggerates wind speeds but on this occasion it's underplaying them compared to the Met Office predictions in the warning but fits with the Met's wind gust maps I posted further back... But the Met do have some very good short range models and are usually pretty good in these situations regarding wind speed predictions

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Gusts higher on the 18z into Western Ireland, 70-75mph.

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Into Wales with gusts 60-70mph+, sweeping into Central England with gusts of 60-70mph then exiting the south east with similar wind strengths, the far south west and the very southern counties look like they will miss the strongest of the winds apart from the far south east, Kent for example.  

 

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[weirpig]

Into Wales with gusts 60-70mph+, sweeping into Central England with gusts of 60-70mph then exiting the south east with similar wind strengths. the far south west and the very southern counties look like they will miss the strongest of the winds apart from the far south east, Kent for example.  

 

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ohh dont fancy 70 mph winds here  will certainly feel abit blowy

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*
Adding the rest of my quoted post.

[Liam J]

ohh dont fancy 70 mph winds here  will certainly feel abit blowy

Yep, a short but potentially impactful spell of weather tomorrow night, I expect amber warnings will be issued tomorrow by the Met office. 

[Snowyowl9]

So Barney bear is coming great.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

[NO LONGER POSTING]

tomorrow morings 00z and 06z will be crucial, then its all eyes on the sat

[cyclonic happiness]

Why is a 60mph wind more damaging to the Midlands than anywhere else in the country? I've been to the Midlands before and the houses are still made of bricks and mortar like the vast majority across the UK. And in those 60 years the Midlands will have experienced far worse than what is forecast tomorrow, so don't be worried. 

Trees and fences etc, don't get blown about, so tend to be weaker. And dead wood and branches etc aren't tidied up as much and are left on trees nowadays, so are liable to be blown down.

 

If there are going to be 70mph winds across the middle Midlands, it'll be very damaging indeed.

[matty40s]

whats BARNEYS rainfall looking like, are the midlands rivers going to get full ?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

whats BARNEYS rainfall looking like, are the midlands rivers going to get full ?

I've read about some potentially and stress that word, some pretty lively fronts to come through with a slight chance of a rumble or 2

[Liam J]

whats BARNEYS rainfall looking like, are the midlands rivers going to get full ?

NetWx-SR rainfall totals out to midday Wednesday. 

 

[Wivenswold]

Why is a 60mph wind more damaging to the Midlands than anywhere else in the country? I've been to the Midlands before and the houses are still made of bricks and mortar like the vast majority across the UK. And in those 60 years the Midlands will have experienced far worse than what is forecast tomorrow, so don't be worried. 

 Another way of looking at it. Why are there few trees in the West Highlands in Scotland? Because they frequently have high winds which prevent samplings from getting very high. In windstorms it's usually broken branches that cause the disruption. So for the SE where there are loads of big strong trees that rarely get tested by windstorms, there's a bigger chance of disruption from weak branches falling. Then there's the population density issue, the more people condensed into a square mile, the more of an effect any disruption would have. 

 

I agree that this doesn't look like any more than a strong Autumnal storm but there are still leaves on trees down here in the far SE, the ground is saturated and it's due to run through in the evening commute. 

Throw in the media's SE bias and that's why 60mph gusts are a bigger deal down here than they are in Cumbria. 

[Liam J]

 Another way of looking at it. Why are there few trees in the West Highlands in Scotland? Because they frequently have high winds which prevent samplings from getting very high. In windstorms it's usually broken branches that cause the disruption. So for the SE where there are loads of big strong trees that rarely get tested by windstorms, there's a bigger chance of disruption from weak branches falling. Then there's the population density issue, the more people condensed into a square mile, the more of an effect any disruption would have. 

 

I agree that this doesn't look like any more than a strong Autumnal storm but there are still leaves on trees down here in the far SE, the ground is saturated and it's due to run through in the evening commute. 

Throw in the media's SE bias and that's why 60mph gusts are a bigger deal down here than they are in Cumbria. 

Didn't think you'd had much rain down your way to make for saturated ground? But yes saturated ground, gale force winds and trees aren't a good mix... So there will be some impacts from Barney but thankfully the worst of the winds look like hitting a few hours after the rush hour (but rush hour for Wales) 

 

You mention trees, I don't know if you've ever been but Cumbria has many trees, woodland areas and forests and nearly always lead to issues in severe gales. 

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[weather09]

Aside from the strong synoptic winds, but nevertheless associated with upcoming low, looks there like might be a brief period of low-end convective potential tucking in behind, or the in the vicinity of, the cold front/triple point surging east, initially over central ROI then over N England between 12-15z, as cool mid-levels and forced ascent with trough overrides slightly moist low-level air mass. This being situated ahead of main zone of highest winds which arrive in the evening.

 

 

 

700/500mb RH output suggests adequate clearance will appear for a time, so convection possibly allowed to get going and not be swamped by general cloud and rain.  Shear environment perhaps conducive to rotating updrafts, should anything of interest develop, given strong, slightly diverging, jet winds aloft with winds increasing with height, though proper directional shear not so much apparent. 

 

 

 

Probably come to nothing, but thought it worth adding to the discussion.

[Jimmyh]

Sorry have to take you up on one point se bias. This is a developing storm still at this range Thomas schaf just said potential gusts of 70-80 mph inland..... Over the most densely populated area of the country. Why a byas??? They report it the same way for a storm in the north. Plus nothing is making headlines at moment.... This is certainly a moving feature and agree this could go Amber tomorrow morning for most parts

[Evening thunder]

I have a feeling I may be just a bit too far south for anything particularly interesting, as always this Autumn.

 

Now I doubt there will be anything I'd call a storm here even, and we keep missing any heavy rain so the ground is no more saturated than usual.

[Costa Del Fal]

Another way of looking at it. Why are there few trees in the West Highlands in Scotland? Because they frequently have high winds which prevent samplings from getting very high. In windstorms it's usually broken branches that cause the disruption. So for the SE where there are loads of big strong trees that rarely get tested by windstorms, there's a bigger chance of disruption from weak branches falling. Then there's the population density issue, the more people condensed into a square mile, the more of an effect any disruption would have. 

 

I agree that this doesn't look like any more than a strong Autumnal storm but there are still leaves on trees down here in the far SE, the ground is saturated and it's due to run through in the evening commute. 

Throw in the media's SE bias and that's why 60mph gusts are a bigger deal down here than they are in Cumbria.

Would just like to add a fair number of trees still in leaf here too. So with wet ground, 70mph gusts will have a very good go at causing strain on trees etc.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Would just like to add a fair number of trees still in leaf here too. So with wet ground, 70mph gusts will have a very good go at causing strain on trees etc.

 

I'm not even sure 70mph is in the offing TBH (except for westward coasts of Wales). Euro 4 18z doesn't look particularly potent to me and it zips through pronto. The February 2014 event was much more potent (probably even for the Midlands) than this 'event' looks to be.

 

[Wivenswold]

Didn't think you'd had much rain down your way to make for saturated ground? But yes saturated ground, gale force winds and trees aren't a good mix... So there will be some impacts from Barney but thankfully the worst of the winds look like hitting a few hours after the rush hour (but rush hour for Wales) 

 

You mention trees, I don't know if you've ever been but Cumbria has many trees, woodland areas and forests and nearly always lead to issues in severe gales. 

No, it's actually the only county in England that I've never visited. Save the best til last and all that.