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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storm #2 Barney

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Just saw on the BBC weather that the Met Office have named the second storm of the season which is Barney, set to affect Wales and Central/Southern England during Tuesday.

 

Gusts of 60-70mph possible and up to 80mph for exposed coasts with the highest risk being for Wales and through the Bristol channel.

 

Here is the first weather warning for Barney's arrival, still some uncertainty with how Barney evolves and where the strongest winds will be.  

 

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The ARPEGE model (operated by the French Met in collaboration with ECMWF) predicts wind gusts into parts of SW & S Ireland of 120-140km/h (75-90mph) then into Wales with gusts of 100-120km/h (60-75mph) with similar wind speeds through the Channel and inland gusts of 80-110km/h (50-70mph) over Central/Southern England.

 

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Latest 6z NetWx-SR currently not showing gusts quite as strong, with tops around 65mph and 50-60mph over land. 

 

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Barney is coming... batten down the hatches

 

If they are going to name every low pressure which brings a bit of wind & rain, they may run out of names by Christmas !!

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https://www.facebook.com/ukweatherforecast/posts/1030684213661182

 

Barney is coming... batten down the hatches

 

If they are going to name every low pressure which brings a bit of wind & rain, they may run out of names by Christmas !!

lol, to be honest this one looks quite bad for us down south, i guess we'll see. Wouldn't be at all surprised if it cause more damage than st jude storm a few years back. That didn't do much till it got to the very east of the UK, but here and EA got some 80mph gusts for a bit, this could do this over a larger area depending on which models are right strength wise.

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Barney is coming... batten down the hatches

 

If they are going to name every low pressure which brings a bit of wind & rain, they may run out of names by Christmas !!

 

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Barney is coming... batten down the hatches

 

If they are going to name every low pressure which brings a bit of wind & rain, they may run out of names by Christmas !!

There are damaging winds forecast with this low.

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The last severe wind storm here was during the early hours of the 31st March this year. Gusts certainly on par with the worst of winter 2013/14.

 

How will this one compare to that?

 

Seems it will cross the country quicker at least. 

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Great, the very worst type of weather we get in this country, right at commuting time...

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12Z GFS rolling out with a slight downgrade in wind speeds but still very windy, gusts around 60-65mph over SW Ireland these quickly sweeping eastwards towards Wales where gusts could reach 65mph+, by 9pm gusts around 60-65mph over Central England then by midnight the strongest winds getting out into the North Sea off East Anglia and the far south east, the south coast of England looks to miss the strongest winds on this run.

 

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Hi Liam, hope you're well. I aint been on here since last winter.

Do you agree that on the 12z run thus far Barney looks around 50 miles further north?

Here in Barnsley we was just out of sight of the strong gusts. On the 12z im just inside the reds now.

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Hi Liam, hope you're well. I aint been on here since last winter.

Do you agree that on the 12z run thus far Barney looks around 50 miles further north?

Here in Barnsley we was just out of sight of the strong gusts. On the 12z im just inside the reds now.

Yeah I'm great thanks :) Yourself? 

 

Yeah the strongest winds are a bit further north compared to the previous run if you compare the 6z to the 12z, the 12z has taken the strongest winds a tad northwards away from the south coast and reduced the wind speeds slightly. Will have to see what future runs and the other model outputs make of it as each run will be getting fed the latest data so will firm up on details regarding strongest winds and which areas will be affected. 

 

At the moment the wind speeds look they will be stronger with the system currently moving into the far north west, but this one wasn't named. Waiting for the higher res NetWx-SR 12z to come out. 

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The Met Office are usually very good at predicting storms & wind gusts but this quite a complex set up as it relies on area of low pressure breaking away from the main low (which it hasn't done yet) out in the Atlantic and interacting with the jet stream in a way which will aid deepening. 

 

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The 12z UKMO would bring very strong winds into Wales as you can see by the very tight gradient, moving quickly towards SE England.

 

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Don't know much about this topic but looking at the charts of the jet stream with a deepening low..

Sting jet?

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12z NetWx-SR has updated and predicting wind gusts of around 50-60mph so quite a bit less than the Met Office are going for. 

 

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The low crossing northern Scotland Wednesday is deeper on GFS and may pack just as strong winds across southern Scotland and N. England, but will it get named?

Barney's strongest punch of winds look to coincide with rush hour across Wales, SW England and the Midlands, with 50-60mph on GFS inland and stronger around coasts, similar strength winds inland and around coasts transferring east across SE England and East Anglia later in the evening and hopefully after rush hour. UKMet indicating even stronger winds inland of 60-70mph, 80mph around coasts. Winds likely to bring down trees given how saturated the ground is and shut high bridges to lorries, so disruption to road, rail and air, also casuse disruption to ferries.

Yes nothing out the ordinary if it were up north, but with the high population and high volumes of road, rail and air traffic in the south - Barney's effects causing greater impact on peoples lives I suppose.

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Just been looking at 12z UKMO high res and it appears to have the Barney low deeper at 18z tomorrow, 984mb as opposed to 989mb on 12z GFS. UKMO appears to have a tighter gradient on the SW flank of the low too - which may explain higher winds than GFS.

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Nick, what are your thoughts on the wind speeds for Oxfordshire tomorrow evening? I'm working till 8pm and I have a 5 mile cycle ride afterwards to get home. Hoping it won't be too bad :unsure2: 

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Nick, what are your thoughts on the wind speeds for Oxfordshire tomorrow evening? I'm working till 8pm and I have a 5 mile cycle ride afterwards to get home. Hoping it won't be too bad :unsure2:

Let's say I wouldn't recommend cycling anywhere at 8pm, as that could be the peak of winds with gusts of 50 - 60mph, maybe higher. So could be a lot of things flying around, particularly under trees.

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Let's say I wouldn't recommend cycling anywhere at 8pm, as that could be the peak of winds with gusts of 50 - 60mph, maybe higher. So could be a lot of things flying around, particularly under trees.

 

 

I thought that was the case, I was clutching at straws and hoping you would say that the worst of the winds might have passed through by then. :laugh: 

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if barney deepens even  more over  night  could barney hit the south east  like the great storm if they  giving   70-80  mph over  the   coasts   that only 2o less  then the great storm  which hit us

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Looking at the Met Office wind gusts for tomorrow afternoon onwards the winds don't appear overly concerning, W & SW Wales sees some gusts around 70mph or so but for the majority generally around 50-60mph. For Storm Abigail they had gusts on the map of 80-90mph. 

 

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Looking at the Met Office wind gusts for tomorrow afternoon onwards the winds don't appear overly concerning, W & SW Wales sees some gusts around 70mph or so but for the majority generally around 50-60mph. For Storm Abigail they had gusts on the map of 80-90mph. 
 

 

60mph winds would be more damaging to parts of the Midlands which rarely see winds over 40mph, even on the windiest days. It's very worrying for me and my work (old glasshouses over 60 years old)

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