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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

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Big difference between gfs and ecm at 12o hours!!gfs has deeper low east of uk and ecm has no low whatsoever!!gfs looks colder aswell!!which ones right!!

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Big difference between gfs and ecm at 12o hours!!gfs has deeper low east of uk and ecm has no low whatsoever!!gfs looks colder aswell!!which ones right!!

 

GFS bit out on its own while the Euros are very close together.

JMA going for a bog standard toppler after last nights wobble.

 

JN144-21.GIF?17-12

 

Meanwhile ECM keeps the theme of a low diving down from Iceland but doesn't have the amplification upstream of this morning - very flat in fact.

 

ECH1-168.GIF?17-0

Edited by Mucka

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I think a return to Westerlies is on the cards after this weekend, not mild ones though. Still strange things going on in the NH so maybe further into Dec something of interest may show up - this time with a much colder continent and NH airmass. Still , it would be good to hear what the METOs latest views are.

An interesting and more seasonal weekend will be good, weekend cold snaps are much better than weekday ones

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It's still going to be a cold weekend though which nothing can stop now. The first cold snap with widespread frosts, icy patches and wintry showers with snow in places and with hopefully much more to come during the upcoming winter :)

True given the very mild autumn so far its going to come as a big shock. More so down here where temps once again reached 20c  today. I've never known anything like this since I moved down here, November has been astonishing in terms of warmth.

 

Looking at the GEFS there are still lots of different solutions even at T144hrs so the outlook perhaps isn't yet carved in stone. Regardless some wintry weather to come for the UK and finally a few air frosts!

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The positive I take from tonight's ECM is that it doesn't go mild. Nothing particularly cold mind you after this weekend but I cannot see it going mild after the 240 chart.

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The positive I take from tonight's ECM is that it doesn't go mild. Nothing particularly cold mind you after this weekend but I cannot see it going mild after the 240 chart.

You sure?

post-5000-0-51401800-1447788166_thumb.jp

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You sure?

Not 100% no :) In fact the more I look at it the less confident I become haha. At first I just couldn't see the next chart showing any ridging into Europe but now I am not so sure. Anyway, it is 10 days away and probably (hopefully :)) won't look like that!

Edited by blizzard81

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ECM is classic zonal - mild, followed by NW'erlies, followed by mild. The 240 chart actually has 850s up around 7c again in places, which would mean temps well into double figures once more. I think it's safe to say the models aren't handling the breakdown of the cold too well, and changes to this will end up in lots of different outcomes afterwards

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ECM is classic zonal - mild, followed by NW'erlies, followed by mild. The 240 chart actually has 850s up around 7c again in places, which would mean temps well into double figures once more. I think it's safe to say the models aren't handling the breakdown of the cold too well, and changes to this will end up in lots of different outcomes afterwards

 

Classic zonal? Maybe in the short term but it's not the progression that would be maintained- IMO of course. We will have a period of zonality following the weekend but it's what happens after which I'm concerned in. You can see the ECM still has the Pacific side ridging which would probably lead to the antagonistic Siberian side ridging response re-emerging.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?17-0

 

We're pretty much at the point now where we will set off a feedback courtesy of the Siberian High we're seeing at present, what will differ is the time when we see the consequences of this manifest themselves into the further outlook. ECM would take maybe 2 weeks, GFS much quicker.

Edited by CreweCold

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Plenty of changes still afoot. I think there's some exciting times to come from the models, detail still to be decided for the weekend.

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We're pretty much at the point now where we will set off a feedback courtesy of the Siberian High we're seeing at present, what will differ is the time when we see the consequences of this manifest themselves into the further outlook. ECM would take maybe 2 weeks, GFS much quicker.

 

A genuine question but could you explain what you mean by "a feedback courtesy of the Siberian High" in simple meteorological terminology? Thanks

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For what it's worth, the American mets think the ECM/GFS are having trouble in the 10-15 day period due to -EPO signal, perfectly summed up by latest ECM runs.

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Nowt stopping you having a read of Cohen, Knocker

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000GL011927/full

 

Very true but that doesn't answer my question. In any case you seem to be implying that you can infer specific model outputs, gfs and ecm, from this at the moment. I merely wondered what they were, meteorologically speaking. it wasn't intended as a trick question.

Edited by knocker

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Plenty of changes still afoot. I think there's some exciting times to come from the models, detail still to be decided for the weekend.

 

and plenty of excitement from the guys over in the strat thread. something afoot up in the stratosphere which wasn't really  expected this early on, 

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Hi folks .The Wintry weekend coming up is very similar to the Artic outbreak of 10 years ago ,in 2005. I remember travel problems for Cornwall and West Wales, because of snow and Ive seen snow lying on the beach in Pendine Sands  from photos during that time.  Anyway, after the Artic outbreak it looks like the Atlantic wants to come in , but models are struggling with how they desolve the Artic outbreak. Even with the Atlantic influence next week ,it looks as though frequent spells of Polar Maritime air will be in the circulation ,with perhaps some stormy weather as well. Anyway, the dull, benign .quiet Autumn so far will be long forgotten and Hello to some very interesting weather.... :D  :D :D  

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Is the siberian high a blockin high? In a slightly heated discussion if this is the case.thanks

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GFS 18z looks like sticking with shortwave/channel low

 

gfsnh-0-60.png?18

 

Edit

just clipping the far South this time. Could be interesting if it developed a little more and was a little further North

 

gfs-2-78.png?18

Edited by Mucka

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Very true but that doesn't answer my question. In any case you seem to be implying that you can infer specific model outputs, gfs and ecm, from this at the moment. I merely wondered what they were, meteorologically speaking. it wasn't intended as a trick question.

a strong siberian high has a major influence on northern hemispheric weather during winter. its strength is usually related to the amount of eurasian snowcover as Cohens studies (debated in detail on this forum) have shown. it has been shown to exert a major influence on winter weather in western europe- i.e. colder.

as crewecold says, cohens studies are freely available to read. the OPI (which i should mention was not a failure last year, as many seem to think, it was just in the 20% or so winters which do not correlate to the OPI) was based on said snowcover and the consequential 'siberian high'

Edited by bobbydog

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GFS 18z looks like sticking with shortwave/channel low

 

gfsnh-0-60.png?18

Is that good or bad Mucka.. For coldies of course.

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In the short term a rather messy picture with low height developments expected over southern parts come Friday with cold polar air invading the northern half of the country, its ripe territory for undercutting but I suspect there will be some rather warm uppers associated with the low, limiting snow to higher ground in the south only.

 

All the models show a northerly airflow over the weekend with temps below seasonal average and high likelihood of snow to modest levels in the north and perhaps eastern parts come Sunday. Many could see there first air frost of the season.

 

Next week - position of mid atlantic heights will determine whether we see a more westerly airflow or a renewed northerly attack.

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I'm still a big believer in new moon new weather theory. And I believe that the weather after 11)12(15 will turn cold and stormy. Especially stormy towards Christmas although with most of the snow over high ground.

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