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Paul

Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

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A little bit more convinced of some sort of influence of the Euro high now, there is agreement on this but how long it influence affects the UK is less certain and the threat of a deep low pressure affecting the UK is there. 

 

Also the outlook is favouring more in the way of a mild weather than cold weather, especially with models agreeing on some sort of influence of the Euro high. 

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A couple of GWO composites go along similar lines to the discussion Damian, once through the Mountain Torque phase we are into phases 5 and 6. These charts are built from the raw data for GWO and placed on same scale as the standard MJO ones that are on occasion dropped into threads.

 

Certainly some support for blockier evolution..

post-7292-0-97857200-1448842164_thumb.gipost-7292-0-45168800-1448842165_thumb.gipost-7292-0-93242400-1448842565_thumb.pn

 

 

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Gfs.

later suite"18z....

northern hemispherical drags" vortex lobe,

On a westwards retreat.

Allowing pressure infer to a position of

"At least partial" block.

An evolution that cannot be discounted via'its

undeniable mobile bias.(gfs)

On viewing its own evolution looks "atm" improbable".

The euro ECM runs in suite against its evolve....

but is prone' to an70/30%

Catch up.

and is mysteriously prone to jumping an' evolutionary

step in pattern change with the model mentioned.

VERY interesting times evolving.

#winteriscoming

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...compare/contrast where the larger (just) majority of the two clusters from EC 12z takes us by the same timeframe out into the distant yonder...

 

https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_11_2015/post-15852-0-46536900-1448839736_thumb.png

 

Hmmmm and here is GFS 00z this morning for the same time frame?

 

gfsnh-0-348.png?0

 

Cold weather fans may not have anything on the near horizon but plenty of positive signals that later in December could give us our first cold spell proper.

 

gfsnh-10-384.png?0

Edited by Mucka

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There is really very little of consequence to add to the previous couple of morning's overview of the det. gfs. Still a very mobile pattern with the interplay of the Pm and Tm air with periods of the former bringing some wintry interludes particularly in the north. On the other hand there are also periods where the European HP has more influence. It does end with a Greenland high, Thought I'd better mention this as it may be worth keeping an eye on. Or it may not of course

 

I say that because last night's 18z GEFS(P) anomaly does in general tie in with this morning's run and is tending to some height rises in the western Atlantic.

 

Having said all that the percentage play is much of the same perhaps becoming more settled later in the run with temps still above average.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

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post-12275-0-82868900-1448862749_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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The ecm is cooking up some pretty wet weather next weekend starting 00z Saturday with a deep low Iceland and associated fronts Ireland. This is rapidly followed by another system winging in from the SW bringing some very wet weather  to the south. And a couple of days later yet another system arrives bringing wet and windy weather to all.

 

post-12275-0-40230800-1448867842_thumb.p

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The ecm is cooking up some pretty wet weather next weekend starting 00z Saturday with a deep low Iceland and associated fronts Ireland. This is rapidly followed by another system winging in from the SW bringing some very wet weather  to the south. And a couple of days later yet another system arrives bringing wet and windy weather to all.

Yes the reliable timeframe offers more wind and rain across the models this morning with some vigorous systems sweeping across the Atlantic destination UK.

Again GFS wants to shut down the conveyor in FI, i'm seeing a trend to something more seasonal as we get to mid December with the jet taking a more southerly track, certainly GFS has been hinting at this over the last day or two. :)

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...compare/contrast where the larger (just) majority of the two clusters from EC 12z takes us by the same timeframe out into the distant yonder...

Cheers Ian, Don't forget the vast majority of us aren't able to view such charts that far out on the ECM! Interesting nonetheless, but plenty more to get through in the meantime with potential for further disruptive weather over the next week or so. 

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Yes the reliable timeframe offers more wind and rain across the models this morning with some vigorous systems sweeping across the Atlantic destination UK.

Again GFS wants to shut down the conveyor in FI, i'm seeing a trend to something more seasonal as we get to mid December with the jet taking a more southerly track, certainly GFS has been hinting at this over the last day or two. :)

Yes, but the GFS was hinting at a scandi block then binned it after a few days.

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Further heavy rain and gales over the weekend if UKMO is correct flooding will be an on going concern this week

 

Rukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

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This morning's anomalies signal no change and generally support the recent det. outputs. Periods of unsettled weather, particularly in the north and temps varying around the average. The ext period signals no significant variation to this theme.

 

post-12275-0-91964300-1448878735_thumb.p

post-12275-0-58035500-1448878750_thumb.p

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FI Looking good....again

Edited by Ali1977

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Definite trend from GFS to shift the PV east mid month allowing some blocking. There is a consistent signal now for a cold spell mid month. Hopefully a festive lead up to Christmas this year!

post-2036-0-20131900-1448881079_thumb.pn

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Indeed. The theme of a shift to colder conditions (higher chance of blocking via SSW; greater incidence N or E'ly flow) is still the preferred likelihood later into winter and you'll find this represented and explained in the latest 3-month outlook for contingency planners from UKMO (just published a moment ago).

 

 

Definite trend from GFS to shift the PV east mid month allowing some blocking. There is a consistent signal now for a cold spell mid month. Hopefully a festive lead up to Christmas this year!

attachicon.gifimage.png

Conflicting.signals perhaps...

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Conflicting.signals perhaps...

Bear in mind UKMO team specifically advise how the December summary in the 3-month probabilistic outlook must always be superceded by the 30-day forecast. As logic would dictate. Anyway: we watch with interest.

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Another beautiful GFS run with a stonking northerly as pressure rises across the north Atlantic.

This is a trend not to be ignored now , the model is for sure seeing a pattern change. :)

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Yet another run with a progression towards more seasonal conditions around midmonth - in fact slightly before on the last two runs. Without letting my coldie preferences get the better of me, I don't think this can be ignored now and in the current pattern I think it's a lot more likely a cold spell is going to come from the north rather than the east.

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The GFS has been hinting a Northerly type flow around the 12/13th for a few days now, This trend continues/strengthens today so some interesting and seasonal Model watching coming up as we head into the start of Winter.

It has, will be interesting to see the ensembles :)

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