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Paul

Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

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Another batch of model runs, same story really, the north will see cold enough airmasses at times to get snow to modest levels. For the Midlands south the story is pretty dire to be honest with the 0C barely penetrating the south half of the UK at all in the next week or so. So double figure maxima look likely until next weekend where we may see more widespread dry and settled conditions develop for a time.

gfs-0-168.png?12

gem-0-168.png?12

 

Unfortunately no guarantees on this as the UKMO is completely flat and unsettled on its chart for Saturday with little sign of the pressure rise shown on the GFS and GEM operationals.

UW144-21.GIF?29-17

TBH CS I see some parity there in the charts, looks to me UKMO is heading in similar direction?

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Out of GFS, GEM and UKMO GEM is very much the odd one out with its high pressure over the UK I'd also hazard a guess and say GFS has the high too far north lets see what ECM comes up with later but another unsettled weekend with a continued risk of flooding and strong winds looks a good bet at this stage

 

Rgem1441.gifRtavn1441.gifRukm1441.gif

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Nice last few days to the GFS 12z run. Setting us up for a cold final third of December :)

 

If there is any glimmer of hope or reason to look at the MO at the moment for coldies, it comes around day 10+ where there is just a hint the pattern will become more amplified. Whether that is enough to produce any worthwhile blocking toward mid Dec is questionable though.

 

Hopefully ECM will make more of the possible ridge around our vicinity at that time-frame this evening as with GEM although this mornings ECM was pretty similar to this evenings GFS and although that has a knock on effect and increases chances of a potential blocking pattern developing around mid month still look like being overrun at present.

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The charts continue with a mobile Atlantic but it's not without interest with the UK right on the boundary beteween the polar and tropical airmasses for the next week at least and probably longer.

 

The snow over parts of Scotland today and some for tomorrow underline the cold regime up there currently.

 

We can see this reflected in the 850 charts over the coming days as first the cold comes south then it's pushed away north and then comes back again later in the week.

post-2026-0-52824200-1448816631_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-41394200-1448816640_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-87148400-1448816654_thumb.pn

 

Looking at the wider NH picture shows the jet across our latitude and this image looks typical for the coming week or so as it wavers north and south bringing further spells of wind and rain,with some snow again further north,especially in upland locations

.

post-2026-0-42066500-1448816814_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-96252000-1448816821_thumb.pn

 

the 2 main features that Greenland vortex and the high pressure to the south.

No real sign the Euro high establishing over the UK other than brief ridges so this changeable weather looks like continuing in week 2 .

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If there is any glimmer of hope or reason to look at the MO at the moment for coldies, it comes around day 10+ where there is just a hint the pattern will become more amplified. Whether that is enough to produce any worthwhile blocking toward mid Dec is questionable though.

 

Hopefully ECM will make more of the possible ridge around our vicinity at that time-frame this evening as with GEM although this mornings ECM was pretty similar to this evenings GFS and although that has a knock on effect and increases chances of a potential blocking pattern developing around mid month still look like being overrun at present.

My personal thoughts are that the last third of December is looking increasingly uncertain and I think the Meto monthly forecasts will reflect this over the next few days. The "indistinguishable" pattern he alluded to earlier with regards to late December (Glosea model) reinforces my belief that a pattern change to cold is pending last third of December.

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JMA looks like it would g on to build a decent ridge but again it looks like the pattern would likely flatten out again. (Just straws for now)

 

JN192-21.GIF?29-12

 

ECM does indeed go on to build that ridge this evening - hope the straw is strong and my grip firm :)

 

ECH1-216.GIF?29-0

Edited by Mucka

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We might not be waiting too much longer for Desmond to show up... ECM continues to show some impressive cyclogenesis. 

 

post-9615-0-39440200-1448823102_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-83995800-1448823107_thumb.pn

Edited by *Sub*Zero*

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Innuendo alert on Mucka's last post  :crazy:

 

When it comes to the longer-term model output over the past few days, GFS remains keen to mess with the polar vortex, while ECM can't seem to make its mind up.

 

Before then, the first 5-7 days of December are looking exceptionally mild across the south, just mild to very mild across the middle third and considerably chillier than that for the northern third.

 

One thing ECM is being more consistent about is a violent windstorm next weekend, though the track is still varying quite a bit. There's then a second bout that could hit the SW hardest the following Monday - but that's into highly unreliable territory.

 

ecmt850.144.pngecmt850.192.png

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I do believe the NWP outputs will revert back to a more settled outlook from D6 onwards for at least few days come tomorrow/tuesday afternoon and evening's runs if not before. I hope this scenario comes to light as the current forecast for most of next week looks a wee bit miserable for those out West in particular. The following link showing GEFS 12z spreads hints at a cooling down for London from that key date of mine, the 4th December so all is not lost in us seeing something less unsettled as we head beyond D6 in the outlooks.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

There is a good spread of heights on the pressure spreads too which kind of backs up what I'm saying, obviously uncertainty increases into week two of December and that is definitely up for grabs right now, be it dry or wet, stormy or otherwise. Either way a wild and cold/mild split to the UK's weather as we into the first few days of December.  :friends:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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The ECM briefly tried to raise some interest at T216hrs but the upstream pattern is  too flat and so no sharpening of the upstream troughing at T240hrs.

 

Overall it still looks like a very mobile picture so plenty more wind and rain to come especially for northern areas, the Euro high looks like it might try and ridge further north later.

 

I think patience is going to be needed  until theres a change upstream, a chance that high pressure could get further north to dry things out and if the ECM finds more amplitude upstream we could see the high get further to the ne with some colder conditions but that's currently a long shot and would be difficult to sustain.

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Good evening all, As far as Im concerned  the medium outlook is for the traditional mix of late Autumn /early Winter charts which is usually the default pattern of the Uk.  Nothing too cold in the offing but of course snow for Scotland at times and some brief Wintry weather on higher ground further south....The Rollercoaster is in full swing... :)

post-6830-0-88696800-1448826303_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-28749500-1448826577_thumb.pn

Edited by ANYWEATHER

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Just a quick reminder from me, as we have a couple of deadlines coming up...

 

Firstly, if you want to enter the CET forecast/guess competition for December, which is also the start of the 2015/16 competition (winner gets a £50 Amazon voucher + NW Extra sub) then get your entry in before the end of the month to make sure you get off to a good start:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84464-cet-forecasts-for-december-2015-start-of-2015-16-competition-year

 

Secondly, the final HO-PI vote closes tomorrow:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84504-november-ho-pi-final-chance-to-vote/

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Well, I had a feeling the pub run would pull one out of the bag :) Fab run, waiting with baited breath for the ensembles.

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Well, I had a feeling the pub run would pull one out of the bag :) Fab run, waiting with baited breath for the ensembles.

Haha Damian, you beat me to it :) I sense many on here are war weary after the last couple of winters and the non stop wind and rain recently. Anyway, Gfs 18z says goodbye autumn, hello winter :)

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One day away from winter and model fatigue has already set in by the looks of it! Anyway, 18z is an excellent run and whilst yes it is the 18z, not to be dismissed. It takes us into the period when this sort of setup is more than viable IMO. Window of opportunity will be there as the main vortex activity shifts away from the Greenland locale and the jet heads south.

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One day away from winter and model fatigue has already set in by the looks of it! Anyway, 18z is an excellent run and whilst yes it is the 18z, not to be dismissed. It takes us into the period when this sort of setup is more than viable IMO. Window of opportunity will be there as the main vortex activity shifts away from the Greenland locale and the jet heads south.

 

Indeed the GFS is in line with what you would expect if the Jetstream forecasts were to verify..

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Oh well looks like I am keeping this thread alive this evening.. not sure where everyone is.. and no word on the GFS 18Z output which I'm surprised as it shows a much colder theme as we approach mid month with jet taking a nosedive to the south and height development to the NW. Yes its the 18z GFS, and yes we are talking 12 days + so take with a pinch of salt, but worth a comment.

Probably because we've been here more than once with the GFS over the last week and many times before lol... And after disappearing for a few days the 18z has thrown up some cold charts up in FI again... The GFS handled today's storm badly even up to T0, I have no faith at all in it's far out FI charts, but good news, the GEFS(P) becomes the operational model from Wednesday, hopefully it'll perform better...   :)

Edited by *Sub*Zero*

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the GFS really does want to give us a greenland high

post-12336-0-23076900-1448839343_thumb.p

oh go on then... we'll take it!

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...compare/contrast where the larger (just) majority of the two clusters from EC 12z takes us by the same timeframe out into the distant yonder...

Wow, definitely post of the day there Ian. Thank you again for posting these details that I for one would not be able to view.

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Potential for quite a bit of snow Tuesday morning rush hour across Scotland, even at lower levels, as a frontal system arrives from the SW and bumps into cold air. Temps Monday night perhaps as low as -10C in the Highlands. Milder air spreads in later on Tuesday to melt all the snow though.

 

post-1052-0-03284900-1448840379_thumb.pn

 

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