Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Oh you bugger....please don't

 

 

 

 

I know there is talk of no support etc...but Euro HP supporters for rest of Dec/Winter...their bums are twitching  

BFTP

Edited November 25, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh you bugger....please don't

 

 

 

 

I know there is talk of no support etc...but Euro HP supporters for rest of Dec/Winter...their bums are twitching  

BFTP

 

Was thinking the same thing Fred...but on the contrary, I think there is and has been plenty of support. Maybe not, however, if you confine yourself to the thinkings of a 'classic' el nino....

[sundog]

At this stage, I would be wary regarding the jet positioning for the medium term as only yesterday, the UKMO was showing a more cooler zonal flow than today's run is showing so whilst it looks a very mobile pattern at the moment, we could see changes in just whether it be a more cooler Atlantic set up or a milder one, today's runs suggest it be more the latter as we head into next week but this could very well change.

Also keep an eye on that rapidly deepening low pressure system for Sunday into Monday, both the GFS and ECM show this however not really directing the UK but a different positioning in the jet could well alter this.

Its too early to worry about cold and snow prospects at this stage, plenty of time for the outlook to change although the GFS 18Z FI run shows it can change if it comes together but my main focus is most certainly seeing whether we will see more in the way of a milder Atlantic or a cooler one and whether that deep low will affect the UK or not.

Very true I don't think we will know until nearer the end of this week whether we see a milder atlantic set up or a cooler one as we head into next week,as you say things could change back to a cooler atlantic set up on the models. I don't think a milder atlantic set up is set in stone yet just because todays models suggest it. Edited November 25, 2015 by sundog

[Cheese Rice]

Well hello GFS 18z....

 

Building blocks start early in FI and build to produce this in the last frame...

 

 

 

 

Now what was I saying the other day about easterlys having the potential to pop up unexpectedly.....

 

 

Its perfectly reasonable to expect an easterly to show up during the winter months in FI. It's the same as a heatwave showing up in summer. With no support you are leading some members down the garden path.

 

Euro High is the dominating trend throughout the mid to latter end of the output, perhaps some brief incursions of PM air for Northern parts at times but no clear pattern change arriving yet. 

Edited November 25, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

Its perfectly reasonable to expect an easterly to show up during the winter months in FI. It's the same as a heatwave showing up in summer. With no support you are leading some members down the garden path.

 

Euro High is the dominating trend throughout the mid to latter end of the output, perhaps some brief incursions of PM air for Northern parts at times but no clear pattern change arriving yet. 

 

 

How am I misleading anyone? I said in a previous post that it's a very unlikely scenario but one that's entirely possible. In terms of weather and meteorology, the people that are doing the misleading are the ones saying westerly for the next 4 weeks....with all due respect, given the volatile nature of the beast (i.e weather) how can anyone blanket write off 4 weeks at a time??

[Mucka]

If GFS 00z is right Scotland really might not be part of the UK much longer.

 

 

Actually the run is a horror show for coldies, look away now.

 

 

If only it were June

 

 

Now, it is times like these I like to be reminded FI is unreliable. 

 

At least the last frames hold promise and all is not lost if you like a frost.

Edited November 25, 2015 by Mucka

[Captain Shortwave]

The  GEM this morning show some exceptionally mild weather at times as we enter week 2.

GEM

 

The GFS shows something a little more mobile in the longwave department.

It does however develop a robust Euro block in low resolution which eventually becomes a UK high at the end of the run.

 

Apart from an isolated GFS operational or ensemble member, the consensus again is on a mixed picture with the chance of anticyclonic conditions developing. A choice of one of the two depending on how far north the jet can move as we progress into December.

 

 

Posting chart after chart of anomolies showing zonal is easy, spotting the trends to a pattern change within the charts is where the skill lies. Members attemping this should be credited, this is how other members can learn what to look for.

 

Alas the same can be true for searching and finding the coldest member of an ensemble suite and posting it claiming that it is a trend. In the end the key is to take all factors including model output, anomalies and background signals and then come to a rational conclusion. Unfortunately at the moment the conclusion is not one most on here will like.

Edited November 25, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

Attempts to amplify the pattern in the eastern Atlantic in a weeks time are flattened in no uncertain terms by the next system powering across.

Beyond that and the gefs and gefsp members are a complete cross section of any number of solutions. The means on the parallel offers some hope for coldies with the movement of the pv to Asia. However, I have no confidence in any broad solution for mid December.

[Ali1977]

With so many different possibilities (non looking great) I guess this is when it's best to keep an eye on the METO long range for now. Ian said 6 members out of 50 showed possible cold after mid month, we need to see if the minority gain some extra support - let's hope in time for Xmas!!

Cherry picked from the GEFS!!

Edited November 25, 2015 by Ali1977

[terrier]

Well after looking at the gfs runs and ECM over last few days it does seem for the next 7/10 days were looking at south westerly dominated weather. Cohen latest update is not great reading for much of Dec. Which Ian Ferguson was alluding too a few weeks ago. I know the charts can change quickly but I think it's looking like a long road to cold. Yes I know the gfs was showing a easterly last night on the pub run but it had no support at all so think it could be a waiting game for a few weeks yet for a proper cold blast.

[knocker]

 

Alas the same can be true for searching and finding the coldest member of an ensemble suite and posting it claiming that it is a trend. In the end the key is to take all factors including model output, anomalies and background signals and then come to a rational conclusion. Unfortunately at the moment the conclusion is not one most on here will like.

 

 

I have absolutely no quarrel whatsoever with that comment. When perusing the anomaly charts one should always look for uniformity whilst at the same time keeping a weather eye on the det. outputs  This morning's gfs ops run isn't a bad example in xconjunction with last night's anomalies.

 

It's also worth noting a recent comment by Michael Ventrice

 

 

While teleconnnection indices are useful, using one index alone is VERY Risky.

[knocker]

A couple of charts from this morning's ecm epitomizes the volatility and the N/S split

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[johnholmes]

does anyone have an alternative site for the ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts please, the one I normally use seems not be sending any out?

[Frosty.]

Friday looks interesting according to the Gfs 00z with an active disturbance pushing in from the Atlantic with a band of heavy rain and strong winds followed by a rush of much colder air sweeping in bringing a lot of snow showers across northern areas by Friday evening and night.

[Liam J]

Friday looks interesting according to the Gfs 00z with an active disturbance pushing in from the Atlantic with a band of heavy rain and strong winds followed by a rush of much colder air sweeping in bringing a lot of snow showers across northern areas by Friday evening and night.

Shows how inaccurate snow prediction charts are, or am I looking at that wrong because those charts are showing snow falling into double figure temps? 

Edited November 25, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[mb018538]

Those charts are a load of tosh really - I'd be surprised if we had snow anywhee other than over high ground, and even then not a vast amount. It's not going to be that cold!

[Cloud 10]

Shows how inaccurate snow prediction charts are, or am I looking at that wrong because those charts are showing snow falling into double figure temps? 

 

The temperature chart must be from a previous run.

 

 

GFS going for back-edge snow on Friday evening.

 

Edited November 25, 2015 by Cloud 10

[Liam J]

The temperature chart must be from a previous run.

 

 

GFS going for back-edge snow on Friday evening.

 

66-574UK.GIF66-580UK.GIF

That looks more believable, snow restricted to the high ground maybe to lower levels in Scotland for a time before less cold air moves in on Saturday morning. 

[Fingers]

Not too much hope of incoming cold when you have the forecast NAO at these levels, along with the AO of similar positivity, with low pressure camped over the pole. There is always one though.............!! #trendsetter!!

[Nick F]

does anyone have an alternative site for the ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts please, the one I normally use seems not be sending any out?

Hi John, I guess you refer to the PSU e-wall not producing the charts atm

Tropicaltidbits site is a good reference, though you cant get GFS and EC side by side comparison like PSU site, below is a link for GFS op at H500 with anomaly

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015112506&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=821

... or the EC det at H500 and anomaly:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015112500&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=82

Also there are the GEFS and EPS H500 mean and anomaly if you click on ensemble tab above the chart.

[Newberryone]

 ECM 00Z looking somewhat less amplified and more progressive again. Relatively tight isobar gradient would suggest quite a windy period coming up I would think with the pv regularly hammering those euro heights. As Legritter would have it.."Action Weather". 

[Ali1977]

PV Completely shifted to Siberia on the last GFS in FI with a 1060hp over Greenland, lets see if that happens again...think we need to look for trends rather that eah run individually.

PV Completely shifted to Siberia on the last GFS in FI with a 1060hp over Greenland, lets see if that happens again...think we need to look for trends rather that eah run individually.

Similar looking at day 10 with 4 distinct areas of PV.

 

Dare I say it, same thing happening again with the PV heading East allowing pressure to build striongly around greenland.

Edited November 25, 2015 by Ali1977

[Bobd29]

PV Completely shifted to Siberia on the last GFS in FI with a 1060hp over Greenland, lets see if that happens again...think we need to look for trends rather that eah run individually.

Similar looking at day 10 with 4 distinct areas of PV.

 

Dare I say it, same thing happening again with the PV heading East allowing pressure to build striongly around greenland.

If only if only......a decent straw to clutch but let us wait until T120 on at least 2 of GFS ECM or METO, but I have to say I cannot see what is causing the PV to disrupt as you suggest, anyone?

[johnholmes]

Hi John, I guess you refer to the PSU e-wall not producing the charts atm

Tropicaltidbits site is a good reference, though you cant get GFS and EC side by side comparison like PSU site, below is a link for GFS op at H500 with anomaly

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015112506&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=821

... or the EC det at H500 and anomaly:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015112500&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=82

Also there are the GEFS and EPS H500 mean and anomaly if you click on ensemble tab above the chart.

 

many thanks for that info Nick, have you any idea what is the problem with the site I use?

[mb018538]

Definite signs of a correction this morning - as in yesterdays rampantly mild outlook has been pegged back a bit, with a stronger trough influence, with the HP further away back in Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18015.gif

Very strong jet streak over the UK there, so any weather systems will whistle through quickly! What are peoples thoughts on the progression from this set up....chances of a cold interlude looking quite low at the moment with a massive +ve NAO?