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Paul

Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

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Looks like the GFS 18Z still going for the Canadian maritime cold air mass going for the UK.

 

h850t850eu.png

 

It is struggling for -5s to reach UK though:

 

 

h850t850eu.png

 

h850t850eu.png

Edited by pip22

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Nouska, Solarcycle and Paul,

Thanks for the responses.

Snipper

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Not sure if anyone follows Eric Webb on twitter but he tweeted earlier a composite for your "typical" el nino december pattern.

 

Here it is

 

post-16336-0-18533100-1447894196_thumb.p

 

A few recent GFS runs have started to build heights to the north east/east towards the end of the run. Tonight's 18z though is the best example.

 

post-16336-0-83381600-1447894254_thumb.p

 

18z pretty similar to that composite and perhaps where we may be going into December. We shall see.

 

Looking forward to some more cooler, drier and sunnier weather this weekend either way!!

Edited by bradythemole

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Obviously a chance for a bit of snow this weekend....not something to pin hope upon I'd say but something to welcome as a bonus if it does arrive.

Beyond is interesting in other ways. The damp cloudy mornings many of us have been experiencing of late, although depressing in many ways, are a bit of a blessing at this time of year for those who of us who travel south down a road like the A1 for their commute.

Potentially however we could see clearer skies from next week. Which, at this time of year, for some of us, means mornings travelling into a bright, low sun, with its blinding light coming straight through the windscreen!

Drive carefully!

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If the gfs evolution is correct it could be quite unpleasant a for a short while in the early hours of Saturday down the east coast.

Chart weatherbell

post-12275-0-53748900-1447915722_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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Looking at the ecm for 06z sunday morning with the shallow low situated in the western channel having moved down from the south Irish Sea I would say it was odds on rain in the south west. But having said that the detail for the weekend has still to be resolved

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At last the first cold snap of the season is almost here and the Ecm 00z is showing a much colder weekend with wintry showers, ice and frosts. There is a good chance of hail, sleet and snow falling in many places at some point from late tomorrow through to Sunday...an early taste of winter with max temps of 3/4/5c and feeling more like freezing due to the strength of the Northerly winds. :)

post-4783-0-70174100-1447923313_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-00686600-1447923322_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-28535600-1447923328_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.

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The GFS continues to show a cool unsettled N/W Pm flow out into the run this morning as we head into the start of Winter.

post-12319-0-78814300-1447923810_thumb.p

post-12319-0-77732000-1447923822_thumb.p

post-12319-0-91884600-1447923833_thumb.p

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Looking at the ecm for 06z sunday morning with the shallow low situated in the western channel having moved down from the south Irish Sea I would say it was odds on rain in the south west. But having said that the detail for the weekend has still to be resolved

Yes it does look like rain for Wales and the SW with less cold air in the mix, wintry ppn possible well inland depending on the eastward extent of any ppn. 

 

Charts from NetWx-MR model.

 

post-9615-0-09997800-1447924188_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-99370800-1447924193_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-72838100-1447924200_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-50621100-1447924207_thumb.pn

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All depends on how the small Low slides down the East coast, There could be gales for a time to.. Certainly time for changes yet re-detail. 

post-12319-0-30493600-1447925292_thumb.p

post-12319-0-54110300-1447925303_thumb.p

post-12319-0-85408900-1447925816_thumb.p

Edited by Polar Maritime

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However - I agree there's clear cross-over with eg the seasonal/winter thread plus stratosphere watch thread. The latter, IMO, should be sitting immediately adjacent to this model discussion thread as the two are so intrinsically aligned. But that's a matter for the Mods. Cheers all.

 

Oddly enough, we were discussing the layout of the threads etc only yesterday evening, so watch this space so to speak. 

 

If anyone has any feedback/views on this type of thing, please feel free to pm me or one of the team, alternatively post up into the feedback and help forum :)

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The ext ecm anomaly this morning has a trough Alaska, fairly flat across N. America, some slight height rises in the western Atlantic but the Greenland trough dominates to the east. Welcome to the Pm train and abandon hope all ye who enter here.

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Yes Knock, The 6z continues with the Pm flow into the run, Certainly not back to the mild Daffodil pushing conditions of late. Avg to just below as we head into Winter, Unsettled and cool with the North more-so. A typical seasonal early Winter pattern for the UK. Also the 6z Snow risk charts for Sat/Sun.. Warnings are out for the North.

post-12319-0-58793600-1447930414_thumb.p

post-12319-0-39174200-1447931225_thumb.p

post-12319-0-80850600-1447931234_thumb.p

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Interesting that both the control and operational runs on the GFS 06hrs drop low pressure south over the UK between T120 and T144hrs. Neither the ECM or UKMO are really interested in doing this.

 

The GEFS does have a cluster of solutions that support this with a weakish ridge developing to the north as this happens.

 

Earlier still some uncertainty regarding two possible snow possibilities, the first is the occlusion which passes close to the east and se and the other the shortwave which runs se overnight Saturday into Sunday.

 

In terms of the first one, the highest risk at the moment is as the occlusion clears, the second possibility is being handled differently by the models. The GFS 06hrs takes this further west so areas to the east of it on its eastern flank more at risk. There is a warmer sector with this that clearly shows up when you look at the dew points and 850's. The UKMO on the fax charts takes this shortwave further east.

 

After the weekend the models on the face of it want to drive the PV further south as the ridge builds into Alaska however there are some hints that the Siberian high might back further west, if this battle does ensue then you're likely to see the troughing stuck over the UK. I think the issue at present is in relation to any trough disruption near the UK and how any Siberian high will be orientated because this makes a difference in terms of forcing on the UK troughing.

 

Generally the ensembles keep the Azores high further to the west/sw so its unlikely we'll see a return to much milder conditions, for the timebeing average to cooler with some PM air at times seems more likely.

Edited by nick sussex

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Yes Paul, Certainly an interesting 'Wintry' weekend coming up for sure. Warnings are already out, With high uncertainty as to were/how much snow will fall and with Gales down the East Coast only adding to the wind-chill. Lot's to keep an eye on over the next 24hr re-detail as the Models firm up.

 

Just a heads up.. There is a thread open for musings for/and/repots during the up-coming 'cold snap'. Which can be followed here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84455-weekend-cold-snap-20th-23rd-nov-2015/

Edited by Polar Maritime

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A little perplexed about the lack of posting about the weekend, maybe some have been misled by the constant references to zonal weather or El Nino predictions instead of every year's unique reality.

Anyway, those on the East Coast look like having a very nice hors d'oeuvres before winter starts proper.

15112106_1906.gif

Totally agree. Every downgrade seems to taken like Gospel. But with the dynamics of the weather atm and the general overview of the northern hemisphere weather patterns anything is possible which is exiting for weather fanatics. Also the disappointment of the last 2 Winters and the lack of snow still lies deep within people making them submit to downgrades more than often.

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
Please use the report button, Thanks.

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A little perplexed about the lack of posting about the weekend, maybe some have been misled by the constant references to zonal weather or El Nino predictions instead of every year's unique reality.

 

Anyway, those on the East Coast look like having a very nice hors d'oeuvres before winter starts proper.

 

15112106_1906.gif

 

Yes I was a little surprised to see Euro4 be so convinced that would fall as snow  all the way to the coast.

Also good to see the 06z keeps the embedded shortwave in the flow now 66h, so good consistency there so far but still quite a long way out for such a detailed feature where minor changes can make all the difference to what we experience locally.

Starting to look like I underestimated the potency of this brief cold snap - we can but hope.  :crazy:

 

GFS 06z ensembles were interesting in FI in that there is a firming up on the Siberian high becoming influential once more and for early Dec there are several varied attempts to rebuild MLB closer to the UK.

No cold signal as yet but a growing signal for attempted blocking in early Dec so let's see if that signal strengthens and takes shape in the coming days.

 

I would be quite excited if I were in NE England right now after that Euro4 chart, hopefully the strong snow forecast will be maintained through this afternoon and evenings runs.

Edited by Mucka

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GFS 12z has things further West than the Euro4 and so ppn gets further West too as a result.

 

gfs-0-36.png?12gfs-2-42.png?12gfs-1-42.png?12

 

With the warm sector being to the East it would increase the chances of rain in the East of England, especially further South so this will be a now cast in the end no doubt.

 

As this cold snap comes into focus it is time for snow lovers to clean the windows and ensure street lamps are working.

 

The second feature is also further West as a result and a little later arriving so no snow for the West from this second chance on this run - it seems we can't have our cake and Eat it this time.

 

gfs-0-66.png?12

Edited by Mucka

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The JMA for week 2-4 looking consistent with the CFS and ECM

 

post-14819-0-86911300-1447947420_thumb.p post-14819-0-60782700-1447947419_thumb.p  CFS w3-4 post-14819-0-33764600-1447947499_thumb.g

 

If these are correct and there appears good confidence then just mixed weather for December with average temps and wind and rain more so for the North, and drier potential in the south.

 

The latest JMA Winter forecast anomalies are out, and they are interesting: post-14819-0-27143200-1447947649_thumb.p post-14819-0-54152600-1447947647_thumb.p post-14819-0-76622900-1447947645_thumb.p 

 

As for the snow potential for the east this weekend, the 06z WRF seeing any heavier precipitation as rain:  post-14819-0-97550700-1447947835_thumb.p

 

It does however see that low travel SE on Sunday morning and this could bring a short period of sleet/snow: post-14819-0-78484100-1447947970_thumb.p

 

 

 

 

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