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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

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I am still of the opinion I was a couple of weeks ago that we are in for a sustained period of Atlantic driven weather, well into January IMO. Looking at the CFS for some guidance and it maintains its theme and does not get interesting till February:

cfsnh-3-12-2015.thumb.png.3b829295c86c83cfsnh-3-1-2016.thumb.png.607d31a42a73390

We are getting little help with regard to the strat with the PV still gaining in strength as we proceed through December so the logical call for December is much of the same with the south getting the drier and milder interludes. From mid-January I would say the chances of a negative AO increases with time, so a better chance of something interesting popping up. Obviously as some other members will stress weather is unpredictable so there is still chances of a more blocked pattern developing out of the blue, though only transient cold spell(s) are my call.

As the experts say we probably must expect an El Nino type pattern in December, so wet in the UK:

Screenshot_01_12_2015__14_05.thumb.png.1 

Source: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/671691427127173120

This ties in with the GFS 06z up to mid December and the latest CFS. JMA week 3-4 anomalies also have the UK N/S divide with a westerly flow:

Y201511.D2512.thumb.png.2fece1ff60765729

The composites for an El Nino driver where strongly inclined for any chance of cold in the UK to be Feb-March and nothing at the moment suggests otherwise.

 

 

 

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I disagree. "So, even here on the 1st of December we can write off any cold spell as a result of Northerly blocking." Sounds more definite than a few weeks especially when mentioning it being the first day of winter and we can write off any northern blocking. Anyway won't repeat myself any further. It's the first day of Winter not the last

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The Gfs 6z  shows another colder snap across the north of the uk early next week with wintry showers. :)

hgt500-1000 (1).png

hgt500-1000 (2).png

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z  shows another colder snap across the north of the uk early next week with wintry showers. :)

hgt500-1000 (1).png

hgt500-1000 (2).png

I am going to enjoy around a week of very mild uppers before then:

gfs-15-6.thumb.png.9cf98247d36836be3f302gfs-15-120.thumb.png.70379728797ce5dd1eagfs-15-144.thumb.png.94f255c1f1dae0bb678

Nice to be able to open the windows in early December. The CET for November was a blistering 3c above normal and it looks like December will be starting in a similar fashion:

www_metoffice_gov_uk_hadobs_hadcet_cet_i

source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Typical, a very average year for temps up till November and then it starts to become very mild!

Edited by IDO
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52 minutes ago, IDO said:

I am still of the opinion I was a couple of weeks ago that we are in for a sustained period of Atlantic driven weather, well into January IMO. Looking at the CFS for some guidance and it maintains its theme and does not get interesting till February:

cfsnh-3-12-2015.thumb.png.3b829295c86c83cfsnh-3-1-2016.thumb.png.607d31a42a73390

We are getting little help with regard to the strat with the PV still gaining in strength as we proceed through December so the logical call for December is much of the same with the south getting the drier and milder interludes. From mid-January I would say the chances of a negative AO increases with time, so a better chance of something interesting popping up. Obviously as some other members will stress weather is unpredictable so there is still chances of a more blocked pattern developing out of the blue, though only transient cold spell(s) are my call.

As the experts say we probably must expect an El Nino type pattern in December, so wet in the UK:

Screenshot_01_12_2015__14_05.thumb.png.1 

Source: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/671691427127173120

This ties in with the GFS 06z up to mid December and the latest CFS. JMA week 3-4 anomalies also have the UK N/S divide with a westerly flow:

Y201511.D2512.thumb.png.2fece1ff60765729

The composites for an El Nino driver where strongly inclined for any chance of cold in the UK to be Feb-March and nothing at the moment suggests otherwise.

 

 

 

Not sure from the charts you posted shows a strong PV and how much confidence do we have in the CFS?

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6 minutes ago, MPG said:

Not sure from the charts you posted shows a strong PV and how much confidence do we have in the CFS?

...strat PV:

565db93fb4da4_NH_HGT_30mb_384(4).thumb.g565db940a69d6_NH_TMP_30mb_384(1).thumb.g

Edited by IDO

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

I am still of the opinion I was a couple of weeks ago that we are in for a sustained period of Atlantic driven weather, well into January IMO. Looking at the CFS for some guidance and it maintains its theme and does not get interesting till February:

cfsnh-3-12-2015.thumb.png.3b829295c86c83cfsnh-3-1-2016.thumb.png.607d31a42a73390

We are getting little help with regard to the strat with the PV still gaining in strength as we proceed through December so the logical call for December is much of the same with the south getting the drier and milder interludes. From mid-January I would say the chances of a negative AO increases with time, so a better chance of something interesting popping up. Obviously as some other members will stress weather is unpredictable so there is still chances of a more blocked pattern developing out of the blue, though only transient cold spell(s) are my call.

As the experts say we probably must expect an El Nino type pattern in December, so wet in the UK:

Screenshot_01_12_2015__14_05.thumb.png.1 

Source: https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/671691427127173120

This ties in with the GFS 06z up to mid December and the latest CFS. JMA week 3-4 anomalies also have the UK N/S divide with a westerly flow:

Y201511.D2512.thumb.png.2fece1ff60765729

The composites for an El Nino driver where strongly inclined for any chance of cold in the UK to be Feb-March and nothing at the moment suggests otherwise.

 

 

 

Incredibly high anomaly over the Artic. Yeah looks like January is going to have the PV in full force...

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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9 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Incredibly high anomaly over the Artic.Yeah looks like January is going to have the PV in full force...

Thats an anomaly and what CFS are hinting at is the return of the Siberian High, so that means to its NW heights are higher than the seasonal average. Whether a Siberian High can give us cold is always a bit of a guessing game:

cfsnh-2-1-2016.thumb.png.3b2d357b574f80e

 

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2 hours ago, -Bomber- said:

Mountain in all honesty how can you say "So, even here on the 1st of December we can write off any cold spell as a result of Northerly blocking." Are you saying there is zero chance of Northern blocking for the entirety of Winter of the very first day of it? Absolute bonkers. Posts like that is why it's less fun here

I don't know whether Mountain meant the whole Winter but imo it is safe to conclude the outlook for the next 10-14days looks pretty zonal,based on the outputs, inc.ens etc.

We have much more information at hand now than say even 5-10 years ago and in this current pattern in particular the chances of anything exciting cropping up out of the blue in the next 2 weeks are pretty slim to say the least.

The best we can hope for is for enough buckling of the jet to see short colder pm incursions which can give at least a brief taste of Wintery conditions such as parts of Scotland have just experienced.

For cold lovers this does dampen excitement but it is what it is at the moment but that doesn't mean changes wont or can't happen later in the month.

 

 

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If we can get something like GFS 12z amplification at day 10 we will at least be in the game for second half of December.

 

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

That and any dryness we can eek out of the pattern will be very welcome.

Edited by Mucka
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Meanwhile, in the 6-day time-frame, the GFS12z is showing for North Wales an alarming total of 290mm of rainfall. This is the highest 144 hr total I can remember ever being shown by the GFS for England and Wales.

 

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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

If we can . antic something like GFS 12z amplification at day 10 we will at least be in the game for second half of December.

 

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

That and any dryness we can eek out of the pattern will be very welcome.

And a nice bend after the low in the Atlantic. Wont take much to get a cold NWly. Scotland seeing lowland snow off a westerly today.

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7 hours ago, -Bomber- said:

Mountain in all honesty how can you say "So, even here on the 1st of December we can write off any cold spell as a result of Northerly blocking." Are you saying there is zero chance of Northern blocking for the entirety of Winter of the very first day of it? Absolute bonkers. Posts like that is why it's less fun here

I meant December Bomber, not the whole Winter. 

It doesn't mean there won't be snow somewhere just that any Northerly blocking in December is highly unlikely. 

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5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

If we can get something like GFS 12z amplification at day 10 we will at least be in the game for second half of December.

 

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

That and any dryness we can eek out of the pattern will be very welcome.

I agree, quite interesting from day 10 even though nothing particularly cold. The GEFS on the 6z had quite a few interesting charts onwards from day 10 too.

I still believe things may change in 2 weeks time ish, even though 90% of this forum seem to say otherwise. 

 

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Looking like a very dodgy weekend at the moment with two systems bringing a lot of rain and potentially some very high winds.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_17.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_23.png

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Another GFS run and another pressure rise in the 7-10 day range from the south. If only we could get this into a reliable time frame with support.

gfs-0-192.png?12

GEM less keen but it does turn a little more variable next week with some more widespread cooler periods and drier weather in the south as opposed to the endless Bermuda express we have at the moment. The GFS for example should the next sub 10C day for most of England and Wales to be in 8 days time.  That is pretty telling for a large part of the UK.

As for future pattern changes, the GEFS (P)

gens-21-5-372.png?6

Something different perhaps with the longwave pattern moving east with a sharpening trough through the UK. Take what you will from that picture....

Edited by Captain shortwave

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I hope so Ali, personally I think even forecasting longwave patterns at beyond 15 days is a bit of a mugs game though it seems perfectly reasonable to write off any deep cold for the UK for perhaps 2 weeks - beyond that it is really guess work IMO.

Best we can do really, is look for weak signals at those ranges and see if they strengthen or subside over coming days.

Currently we have a strong signal (and have had for a while) for the jet to want to dig South and that should amplify the pattern somewhat and we have seen this to varying degrees in each output. On the other hand it also has to be said that the signal beyond that is for any blocking attempts to be overrun but we have to set that against the fact it is further out and less reliable.

 

It seems the key period will be the small window of opportunity we get with the attempted ridging which actually begins in about 5 days (barely noticeable) and amplifies from there.

 

The strat girls and boys will be pleased to see a signal for renewed strat warming too though I will leave it to them to decipher any meaning.

 

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

Edited by Mucka
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Remaining windy through the weekend and into next week with gales at times given the saturated ground flooding will be an on going concern


Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

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First sign of a SSW in FI ??? You never know, models will not take that into account with their predictions!!

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1 hour ago, Cloud 10 said:

The CFS isn't exactly "Mr consistency" though is it,judging by the two previous runs for January.

 

cfsnh-3-1-2016.thumb.png.a6369e6e0cb5d69cfsnh-3-1-20162.thumb.png.9ee7c37d47e794

 

 

Yep - 3 runs, 3 different patterns. About as much use as a raincoat in the desert.

 

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15 minutes ago, Catacol_Highlander said:

Yep - 3 runs, 3 different patterns. About as much use as a raincoat in the desert.

 

Couldn't agree more, those two set ups shown by the CFS are like chalk and cheese in terms of the weather for the UK. The CFS should be put out of its misery as its useless and a complete waste of money.

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With the current pendulum swings regard s Model hints at possible more blocked solutions twinned with the general atmospheric state ie vortex miss placements and El-nina state......

One wouldn't be surprised in the LEAST to soon begin seeing a more solid cross model support for a turn of Fortune in synoptics ..eventually within reliable per time frame!!!

 

 

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December update for the CANSIP seasonal now up. Still going for the change in probably late January and into February. February does look decent on this model but then again it is a seasonal model and it is still 2 months away.

January                                                 February                                    March

cansips_z500a_nhem_1.thumb.png.0c5bdbc54cansips_z500a_nhem_2.thumb.png.adcd5b38fcansips_z500a_nhem_3.thumb.png.37a7e56b6

Here is the latest EC 32 temperature spread for de bilt anyway...

CVIQkg_UAAAftQ.thumb.jpg.abcdd408ad17721

Much better GFS run tonight too, GEFS parallel showing some decent members towards mid December. Will be replacing the old GEFS tomorrow too.

Have a good evening.

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